Archive for the ‘Social Commentary’ Category

Determining the Limits of a Recession

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

It was recently announced that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has determined that we are currently suffering in an economic recession, which began in December of 2007. Given the long time between the beginning of the recession and the official annoucement of a recession, one is given to wonder why the NBER took so long to come to such a formal determination.

The conventional definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Such a definition is convenient in that it is not ambiguous. Except for errors in estimating economic growth (say for example estimating economic growth to be 0.1% as opposed to -0.1%), there can be general agreement about when the economy is in recession.

For economic planning and reconstruction of economic history, it would be convenient to have a measure that would locate a recession in time with greater precision than two quarters.

The National Bureau of Economic Research is the official body for such determinations.According to the NEBR the defintion of a recession is based on:

“(1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. The committee also looks at monthly estimates of real GDP.”

However, history suggests that the industrial production (IP) metric dominates the determination of recession. The graphs below were pulled fromDavid Carbon (davidcarbon@dbs.com). They show industrial production as a function of time for the last four recessions.



The key to note here is that the beginning the recessions as defined by the NBER seem to correlated with the peak in industrial production and to end when industrial production turns upward (regains positive derivative). Of course, the month-to-month industrial production data can be noisy and it would not be appropriate to mark every little bump and dip in industrial production as a recession. It is thus necessary wait some time to determine if industrial production as really peaked or begun increasing again.

Industrial production measures manufacturing and mining output. Given the changing nature of the economy toward a service-based one, one can question how good a measure industrial production is. Nonetheless, it appears to be the proxy that it used by NBER for economic activity.The current recession is very interesting, at least from a graphical point of view.

The figure below is a plot of recent industrial production.


Note that in December of 2007, industrial production reached a local peak. However, the downturn afterwards was shallow. Indeed, during the summer of 2008, industrial production seemed to be on the rise. It is easy to understand why the NBER was reluctant to declare a recession at that point. Then in August and September, industrial production took a nose dive. The fact that we are in a recession is now unescapable. It is also interesting to note industrial production increased quickly last month. Whether this is a bump on a long-term bottom or a V-shaped recession remains to be seen. At this point, it would be premature for the NBER to make any determination.

Obama Opts Out of the Public School System

Sunday, December 7th, 2008

For much of the last few years, the Left and the Left media have not been discontent to just oppose Bush’s Iraq War policies. They have tried to pull the rug from under George Bush’s sincerity with regard to the Iraq War. This was particularly true when the war was not going well. Now that the surge has apparently worked despite what the chattering classes just knew to be true, this sort of noise has diminished. Nonetheless, as recently has 2007, the LA Times was whining that the Bush family was not setting a good example by serving in the military.

Jenna Bush was donating the her earnings from her book to UNICEF, yet the LA Times complained that the ``25-year-old makes the rounds of TV talk shows this fall in a White House limousine, dozens of her contemporaries will be arriving home from Iraq in wooden boxes.”

Of course, and the LA Times knows it, it is not  possible to hold  Bush morally responsible for his adult daughters’ decisions. There is no evidence that if any of the Bush children wished to serve in the military George Bush would have objected. Moreover, as Prince Harry of Great Britain discovered, despite the noblest of intentions to serve, the presence of celebrity can endanger other soldiers.

It is not unreasonable for parents to have mixed feelings about dangerous occupations for their children. For example, everyone would agree that firefighting is a noble and dangerous profession that is crucial for society. Yet there is no parent of a firefighter who does not worry about the safety of their child and many who wish their children would find a safer occupation. This does make parents hypocrites, but parents.

It is unlikely that the LA Times will rope President-elect Barack Obama with he same stilted standards it tries to bind Bush with. Obama was supported overwhelmingly by public school teachers’ union members. Yet when given the opportunity to use the services offered by his ardent supporters, he politely declined. He will not send his young daughters to a District of Columbia public school, something the President Jimmy Carter did. Despite having heaped praise on D.C. schools chancellor Michelle Rhee, Obama will be sending his daughters to the elite private school, Sidwell Friends. What does this say about Obama’s real assessment of DC public schools? This particular school choice is a decision made by the adult Obamas, not by their children as in the case of military service for Bush’s children.

This is not a criticism of Obama. He has an positive obligation to provide for the best education of his children. If he did less, we should all believe less of him. However, we should remember that Obama’s choice is an option that he withholds from others when he stands with the public school teachers’ union in refusing to give the parents of poor children even modest school choice.

Nor are we likely to see the LA Times praise Senator John McCain or Governor Sarah Palin for sincerity on their Iraq War positions since they have children who serve or have served there.

Congratulations to President-Elect Obama

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

It is now the appropriate time to congratulate President-Elect Barack Obama. Although we find here his policies to be in severe error and in many ways a threat to liberty, his election brings an important salutatory result. With the election of an African-American president, we have erased one more vestige of a sometimes ugly past that included slavery, Jim Crow laws, and all manner of discrimination against black Americans. The legal discriminatory restrictions passed decades ago, but this election provides evidence that Americans now generally see beyond color. Given the historic nature of this election, race has played a thankfully small role.

Conservatives now should regroup and re-articulate our vision of freedom and stand up to those who would trade freedom for security. We should, at all costs, avoid an Obama version of “Bush Derangement Syndrome” that polluted politics for the last eight years.

A Small Hopeful Sign

Sunday, October 5th, 2008

It has been a difficult and stressful week nationally. Congress struggled with whether to pass a $700  billion “rescue bill” to alleviate instability in the financial markets. The decision was not an easy one. Would it be better to allow those companies that made unwise economic decisions to suffer the economic consequences or would the fallout from such failures cause an unnecessarily deep economic collapse? Are our current economic problems the consequence of unfettered free enterprise or the fault of government sponsored enterprisee like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae encouraging loans to individuals and families without sufficient resources to repay them.

This week, 70 million of us also experienced the vice-presidential debate contest between Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin. With the competitive spirit unleashed from the debate, there was the simple temptation to consider here the observation that the lower income Palin family appears to be far more generous than the Biden family with their charitable donations. Although there are many liberals that are very generous, the reliance on government, practiced and advocated by Liberals, attenuates personal responsibility for charitable giving making Liberals less likely to embrace private donations. See Who Really Cares by Author Brooks for documentation.

Rather now, in the midst of charged and sometimes mean-spirited partisan rancor, it is heartening to witness small, but revealing acts of humanity.

At the end of the vice-presidential debate, the Sarah Palin and Joe Biden families met on stage and exchanged pleasantries and handshakes. There was a brief moment shown in the picture (from Reuters on the left) with Palin and Biden engaging in friendly post-debate conversation. Between them, stood Piper, Palin’s 7-year old daughter. Like any neighbor might, Biden had his hands gently and protectively resting on Piper’s shoulders. Quite obviously, Piper has been brought up well enough to know how to conduct herself around adults. The whole picture had the air of a friendly chat after a PTA meeting where the principals were debating whether to spend PTA money on a swing set.

The issues debated, of course, were of far more import. Nonetheless, the scene is a salutary reminder that Palin and Biden are good and decent people and that both deserve the respect of honest policy criticism and not the personal attacks that have drowned out so much of the legitimate political conversation.


A Thesis in Search of Evidence

Saturday, September 27th, 2008

The life of an academic can be very agreeable. The working conditions are pleasant. One is surrounded by eager young minds. There is usually no hard labor involved. Pay is sufficient for a middle class lifestyle, but few academics ever earn enough money to firmly ensconce themselves in the upper middle class. The exceptions come for those who manage to bring in government sponsored research grants or who pen bestsellers.

The material success of some business people and others chafes against the sense of justice of some academics. In school, successful academics widely surpassed most of their contemporaries. By God, they are smarter and more clever than these other people. How can can they be so materially successful? Some deal with this perceived injustice by retreating to a smug arrogance that those successful in a non-academic fields are simple-minded Philistines. There is an acknowledgment that professionals like doctor, lawyers, and dentists achieve affluence, but that is OK because they are degreed professionals. Even academics have to concede the intellectual abilities associated with these professions.

Accents can be a key discriminator. If one does carry an accent from an Eastern school or at best a mid-western standard English pronunciation, there is the suspicion that  that person is from the hinterlands, and not quite up to the intellectual rigors of national leadership. While there are many who might feel comfortable with President George Bush’s Texas drawl, there are others from who this provide evidences of a less than stellar mind.

This snobbishness explains the response by academics on the Left (see Clark Clifford) who laughed a Ronald Reagan as an “amiable dunce.” It even explains the reaction by the Left to Justice Clarence Thomas. It is amazing to read criticisms of the mental capacities of Justice Thomas from some who have never read a opinion by Thomas or even any Supreme Court opinion. Is always comforting to assume a position of intellectual superiority over political adversaries.

What is often missed is that the skills and temperament to be a successful political or business leader to not have large areas of overlap with those skills that make a successful academic, attorney or similar professions. Politicians and wealthy business leaders require an above average intelligence and will benefit from wide experience, but at least as important is an ability inspire confidence and loyalty among subordinates. Successful politicians and business people benefit a preternatural ability to connect emotionally with people and to assess others.

What used to frustrate Liberal academics and pseudo-intellectuals about William F. Buckley and continues to annoy them about George F. Will, is that their conspicuous intellectual ability and academic credentials makes in difficult to lampoon with caricatures of Conservative buffoons.  Nonetheless, when confronted with a new conservative, the Left’s (particularly the academic Left’s) instinctive reaction is to seek out speech or factual errors as certain evidence of lack of intellectual capacity.

This has been the pattern so far as Governor Sarah Paliln has emerged on the national scene after having been selected as a Vice-Presidential running mate for Senator John McCain. First, there was the attempt make fun of her small-town background. However, this did not go over well with many Americans who either live in or used to live in small towns. This  tactic was at least less despicable than making Palin’s unwed pregnant daughter the butt of jokes and the victim of vicious rumors of incest.

Palin’s accent was different. But before that could become an object of ridicule, she delivered a blow-out speech at the Republican National Convention with charisma and an innate flair for comedic timing. This was a woman that could more than hold her own in a public venue.

The notion of mentally inferiority dies hard and surely there would be an opportunity to slip her up. In the interview with Charlie Gibson, Gibson asked her opinion on the “Bush doctrine.” She responded, “In what respect, Charlie?” Gibson had a difficulat time being specific.

The Left touted her unpreparedness. Doesn’t she know what the Bush Doctrine is? Well as it turns out there was not single document or speech that points to a single Bush Doctrine. Rather it is composed of a set not necessarily connected components, including the willingness to act unilaterally if necessary, going after countries that harbor terrorists, and acting preemptively. Palin’s response was not only adequate, but displayed depth of understanding that escaped Gibson during the interview.

No one is perfectly knowledgeable or perfectly glib. Palin will make mistakes. However, consider the following errors:

  • Senator Barack Obama once referred to 57 US states. “Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go.”
  • Obama clamed that the the Selma March in 1965  helped to bring his parents together. Obama was born in 1961.
  • As an example of the diversion of resources from Afghanistan to Iraq, Obama cited the lack of translators, “We only have a certain number of them, and if they are all in Iraq, then it’s harder for us to use them in Afghanistan.” However, in Iraq the primary languages are Arabic and Kurdish, while according to the CIA World Factbook, Afghans speak, “Afghan Persian or Dari (official) 50%, Pashto (official) 35%, Turkic languages (primarily Uzbek and Turkmen) 11%.”
  • Obama claimed that “I had a uncle who was one of the, who was part of the first American troops to go into Auschwitz and liberate the concentration camps.” His uncle most certainly played an noble role in fighting in World War II, but Auschwitz was liberated by the Soviets.
  • In an interview  with  George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week, Obama referred to “my Muslim faith.” Obama is a Christian.
  • Senator Joe Biden, Obama’s irrepressible  running mate, “When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn’t just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, ‘Look, here’s what happened.”’ Biden seems to have forgotten that the famous stock market crash of 1929 occurred under President Herbert Hoover’s administration and at the time television was just experimental. The Germans introduced the “first non-experimental public” television broadcast in 1935. Such broadcasts to only a few people began int he US in 1939.

These misstatements are arguably all the result of exhaustion, simple misspeaking, historical sloppiness, or the common political disease of hyperbole. They do not constitute evidence of stupidity or incoherence. However, if Sarah Palin had made analogous statements, they would have received more play in the national media and provided fodder for Left-wind blogs and late-night comedians.

When you hear people make fun of Sarah Palin’s lack intelligence point out that they are nurturing a thesis in search of a evidence, while ignoring evidence that does not support their preconceived notions. People speak with assumed authority on Palin’s lack intelligence largely saying more about their own world view than they are about someone they hardly know.


Deconstruction of Lipstick

Friday, September 12th, 2008

The will come a time when it is impossible to understand how Senator Barack Obama’s reference to the old metaphor of putting lipstick on a pig, as a colorful way to indicate a vain attempt to make something fundamentally unattractive appear beautiful through the expedient of a cosmetic change, caused such an uproar. Perhaps was near contemporaneous exploration of the issue will be of some small future value for all those political science theses that will be written on the subject.

Here are Obama’s words:

“John McCain says he’s about change, too.And so I guess his whole angle is, ‘Watch out, George Bush! Except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy, and Karl Rove-style politics, we’re really going to shake things up in Washington. That’s not change. That’s just calling something the same thing something different. But you know, you can put lipstick on a pig. It’s still a pig. You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change, it’s still going to stink after eight years. We’ve had enough of the same old thing.

Clearly, within the immediate context of the quotation, the “lipstick on a pig” referred to the Bush policies that could not be made to look better. If that same metaphor had been used earlier in the the campaign, it would be impossible to read any different meaning into it. Unfortunately, it was not a metaphor Obama had recently used, but one that unleashed after the nomination of Governor Sarah Palin for vice-president.

Days before, Palin had cited the now famous joke: “What is the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull… Lipstick.” The joke became a signature comment and the word “lipstick” was specifically associated with Palin and her feminity. It is in this total context not only the context of his words that day that Obama had made his remarks. Moreover, the phrase “old fish” could be applied to Senator John McCain.

Taken together, the remarks could be viewed as a clever swipe against both halves of the national ticket. Indeed,the smirking laughs that followed Obama’s comments indicate that the the audience got the joke.

Until they changed their coverage to hide this crowd reaction, ABC news reported:

“The crowd rose and applauded, some of them no doubt thinking he may have been alluding to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s ad lib during her vice presidential nomination acceptance speech last week..”

while AP recorded the same impression:

“”You can put lipstick on a pig,” he [Obama] said to an outbreak of laughter, shouts and raucous applause from his audience, clearly drawing a connection to Palin’s joke even if it’s not what Obama meant….”

It is impossible to peer into Obama’s mind and know his intention. There remain a couple of possibilities. The more negative interpretation is that he was making a vaguely misogynistic remark against Palin. The less damning one is that he was unaware of how the remark would be interpreted. This is not quite the image of the clever constitutional law lawyer adept a parsing sentence and interpreting words in the context of the times.


The Experience of Obama and Palin

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008

It is interesting to examine a time line of the public life of Senator Barack Obama, the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, and Governor Sarah Palin, number two on the Republican ticket.

From 1992 to 1996, Sarah Palin served two terms on the city council of the small town of Wasilla, AK. During the same time, Obama was a lawyer and community organizer in Chicago. The year 1996 was important for both. Palin ran for and was elected mayor of Wasilla, while Obama was elected to the Illinois State Senate.

Palin served as mayor for her two-term limit to 2002 and then ran unsuccessfully for Lieutenant Governor of Alaska. Instead, she ended up serving on the state Ethics Commission and the Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.  In 2004, Obama was elected to the US Senate where he has served since. In 2006, Palin was elected Governor of Alaska, overcoming the old-boy Republican establishment in Alaska.

Essentially, we have a young national legislator versus an young state governor. While it is legitimate to argue that a US Senator gains experience considering national issues, a state governor gains executive experience managing a large governmental enterprise. Both are important for a President or Vice-President.

If Obama and Palin were not running for national office now, it would be hard to make a case about whom had greater experience necessary to be the national chief executive. However, over the last year Obama has been running for President. This has not so much increased his legislative experience, but it has given the nation an opportunity to listen to him and assess his seriousness on issues. Is not so much that he has acquired experience, but that the country has grown accustomed to him and in some modest way taken his measure.

While Obama has been campaigning for President, Palin has been running the state government of Alaska. Only Alaskans really have had time and exposure to appreciate her merits and recognize her flaws. By the time the election occurs this fall, we will have had ample opportunity to take the measure of Palin. Is not so much that she will gain experience, but we will grow in our experience of her. In any objective office-holding sense, Obama does not have more experience then Palin and arguable less, rather we have more experience of him. This lack is remedial.


Obama Obfuscation Tests Supporters

Sunday, August 24th, 2008

In March of 2003, Barack Obama was state senator in Illinois dealing with the Illinois Born Alive Infact Protection Act (BAIPA). The key goal of the act was to make it an affirmative obligation to render conventional medical treatment to all children born, even if the birth was a consequence of an induced abortion. The act brushed against the ragged, politically dangerous edges of the pro-choice and pro-life movements.

One aim of pro-life advocates was to ensure that children born alive and completely separate from their mothers are not treated as medical waste, but accorded appropriate medical attention. Pro-lifers may want to prevent abortions, but there is a much broader constituency who would want to protect children already born. Testimony before Congress has reported cases where live children, the product of unsuccessful abortions, were unceremoniously disposed of rather than treated. The concern was clearly not just a theoretical one.

Pro-choice advocates were concerned that about the legal assertion of rights for babies that were theoretically pre-viable; though one might  expect viability to change as a function of medical technology. Specifically, the  Illinois BAIPA declared, “A live child born as a result of an abortion shall be fully recognized as a human person and accorded immediate protection under the law.” The pro-choice community is perhaps rightly concerned that someone sometime in the future might ask the embarrassing question: How is a being a fully recognized human only moments after being excess tissue?

The legislative dilemma is how to reconcile the humanity of treating with medical respect babies born alive versus the concerns of the pro-choice community to avoid the legislative precedent of declaring babies born alive as persons. Obama and his Democratic colleagues implemented a compromise by adding a clause to the  law that would effectively prevent the law’s use a precedent against abortion. Specifically they added:

“Nothing in this Section shall be construed to affirm, deny, expand, or contract any legal status or legal right applicable to any member of the species homo sapiens at any point prior to being born alive as defined in this Section.”

Curiously, the record shows that Obama voted only for the amendment, but still voted against the bill. The problem is that Obama’s district was still sufficiently to the Left, that deviation from pro-choice purity, even at the cost of the maltreatment of born-live infants, would have had political costs. Either Obama believed that such infants do not deserve such protection or that the political costs of approving the bill were too high. The whole episode was hardly  a “profile in courage.”

If this story became widely acknowledged, it would make Obama appear far out of the national mainstream on the issue of abortion. When asked about the vote in 2004, Obama claimed, according to the Chicago Tribune, that  he voted against the state legislation but would have supported a similar federal bill because “the state measure lacked the federal language clarifying that the act would not be used to undermine Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 U.S. Supreme Court opinion that legalized abortion.” However, contrary to Obama’s assertion, the two bills are nearly identical. Obama knew they were nearly identical because he was chairman of the committee that amended the bill so that it would resemble its federal counterpart.

Rather that conceding the issue, Obama accused his pro-life critics of “lying” about his record. Finally, Obama’s campaign’s has conceded that the federal and state bills were near identical. The only way to reconcile his vote in Illinois against the BAIPA and his later claim that would have voted for the nearly identical federal act, is that in both cases he was acting in immediate political self-interest.

There is certainly room to argue about Obama’s first vote in Illinois, though it does depict him as part of the extreme pro-choice wing of the spectrum. However, there is no excuse to misrepresent his vote and worst to call others liars for disputing what turns out to be the facts of this case.

It is not surprising that this story has not been discussed much in the pro-Obama press, but the story is slowly emerging. One character test for Obama supporters is how do they deal with this report. The reactions can involve either be honesty, dishonesty, or deliberate self-deception

One honest reaction is to concede Obama’s serious mistake and consequent dishonesty, but still maintain their support given his overall record and ideology. However, this would tend to undermine the serious messiah complex of some Obama supporters.

The dishonest way is to continue to obfuscate the issue and to attack the veracity of opponents. This will undoubtedly be the reaction of political partisans.

Perhaps the most common way for Obama supporters to deal with the issue is denial. Rather than examine carefully the details of this serious vote and related dishonesty, they will just to avert their gaze. They will not take the time an effort to determine out the truth. It easier to believe that political enemies are after your candidate than to face an unpleasant truth.


A pro-life advocate, Jill Stanek, performed the difficult task of digging up many of the original documents some of which are linked to in this post.


Public Debt – It’s Not So Bad

Saturday, August 16th, 2008

Both Democrats and Republicans find convenient rhetorical uses for complaining about current budget deficits and total public debt. Democrats cite the deficit and debt to argue for increasing taxes, while Republicans point to  them as reasons to reduce government expenditures. One verbal tactic is to compare either the current tax receipts, total expenditures, the deficit, or total debt in terms of absolute values as in: This is “the largest tax increase in history” or the “deepest budget deficit in history.” But as the country continues to grow at a rate of about 3% per year and as even low inflation devalues the currency, over the long run modest tax increases or deficits can be made to appear much larger than they really are.

To appropriately understand our fiscal situation is it necessary scale national fiscal values the same way we scale our own finances, by our income. The house one purchases today may be substantially more expensive in nominal dollars that a house bought twenty years ago. However, during the intervening time one’s ability to afford that house increases with income growth, while inflation has increased the house’s nominal, but not real value. This is evidenced by the historic expansion in the rate of home ownership. Even though house prices have increased with time, more and more people over the last century have been able to own their own home. Despite price increases, growth in incomes have made homes are more affordable

Similarly, government expenditures, revenues, and debt must be scaled by the gross national product GDP. Here, we focus particularly on the national debt as measured against the national GDP. The graph below is instructive. It is a plot of total US debt divided by GDP as a function of time from the beginning of the country to 2006.

The national debt has taken on a greater importance as the size of government expanded so tremendously since the 1930’s so it is important to focus on the graph after that time. Even during the Civil War in the 1860s, government spending as a fraction of our total wealth was lower than it in the period after the early 1930s.

Government spending has a stimulative effect, taxation has depressing effect, and some level of public debt seems salutatory. The radical decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio after the end of World War II in 1945 was not the result of budget surpluses, but very strong growth in GDP.  However, at the end of the 1960’s the debt ratio dropped below 40% and in the 1970s the US experienced decade-long economic stagnation. The period from 1980 to the present has experienced much higher levels of total debt-to-GDP and simultaneously much greater rates of economic growth and general well  being. While individual year surpluses may be beneficial, if they drive the debt too low, the government suppresses economic growth.

We are perpetually warned that we are leaving too much debt to our grandchildren. However, the erstwhile “Greatest Generation” that survived the Depression and won World War II left a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120%, twice that of the current period. Their more generous and important legacy was the subsequent decades of rapid economic growth that dramatically reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio.  In the current period, we should perhaps be a little less concerned about the debt we leave our children and more concerned about whether we bequeath to them a vibrant and rapidly expanding economy.

The current debt-to-GDP ratio is not only reasonable but hovers around a level consistent with a period of nearly three decades of continuous and robust economic expansion. The long-term concern should not be the current debt, but the unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities we have incurred. The only way we can hope to meet these obligations is to maintain high economic growth, and a proper level of debt is necessary for such growth.


Freedom of Speech Requires Courage

Sunday, August 10th, 2008

It is often interesting to watch old movies and television programs. Although there are certainly classic movies and programing with a timeless quality, it is often illuminating to see the world through the unique cultural vision of the period . Perhaps the most conspicuous and consistent difference is the past glamorization of smoking before the 1960s, whereas by contemporary standards smoking is considered déclassé. Other times we are reminded of more heroic perspectives.

This week the TV Land network aired an episode of Lou Grant with an important message for our times.  If you remember back to the 1970s, the character Lou Grant, played by actor Edward Asner, began with comedy, the Mary Tyler Moore show, set in a Minnesota newsroom. Lou Grant was a spinoff drama, where character Lou Grant was now a news editor of the fictitious Los Angeles Tribune.

In the particular episode, Nazi, reporter Billie Newman (Linda Kelsey) is pursuing a story about an American Nazi  who turns out have been born Jewish. The salient point here is that the reporter was fearful for her life, but pursued the story nonetheless. The show was not shy about moralizing, and the message here was clear: Fidelity to the truth and the unfettered right of free expression often requires courage. In this case, the reporter was not threatened by government censorship, but self-censorship induced by fear of private person or group.

Three decades later, that message of courage seems to have been forgotten. Sherry Jones is  a journalist who has taken a considerable interest in Islamic culture and pursued its study. That study and several years of writing led to a fictionalized historical novel about Mohammad and his favorite wife Aisha. Random House publishing company advanced Jones $100,000 for two books, of which The Jewel of Medina was the first.

Now Random House has lost it publishing nerve. As far as we know, there have been no specific threats against Random House or the author. Rather, the book was sent to Denise Spellberg, a scholar in Islamic studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Spellberg warned that some Muslims might find the book offensive. After the experience of the Danish anti-Mohammad cartoons that caused riots and the fatwa issued by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini for the death of Salmon Rushdie who wrote the Satanic Versus, Random  House is apprehensive.

With this recent history, the concern about a violent reaction to a book that is perceived, rightly or wrongly, as insulting to Islam, is not irrational and precautions are prudent. However, if Random House and the author are convinced of the literary quality of The Jewel of Medina, they would demonstrate considerable moral fortitude in proceeding with the publication. If not, they will help establish precedent that one can successfully intimidate the publishing community.