If it were a rhetorical contest based solem on style, former Vice-President Dick Cheney could hardly compete against President Barack Obama. Obama is lean, tall, and athletic in poise. Cheney is overweight and supports a large head unburdened with hair. Obama has a smile that could melt more icebergs than rising levels of carbon dioxide. Cheney’s barely visible smile, composed of teeth in need of braces during adolescence, resembles an impish smirk. Obama has a cadence in his delivery that lends itself to lofty linguistic flourishes. Cheney has a systematic and clear delivery, but cannot modulate either the volume or rhythm of his voice sufficiently to evoke emotion. Obama is extremely popular, and Cheney is not. The fact that Cheney seems to tying the Obama Administration up in knots with his articulation of the need for enhanced interrogation techniques suggests that he is winning purely on the merits of his arguments.
Perhaps this is partly due to Obama’s obvious disingenuousness. On one hand he says, “… I have no interest in spending our time re-litigating the policies of the last eight years,” but spends most of his recent speech in harsh criticism of the previous Administration. This might be acceptable if he recognized it is possible to come up with legitimately different positions in the difficult struggle between maintaining the safety of Americans and minimizing harsh treatment of prisoners who have information that could save American lives.
Instead, Obama argues, without providing independent evidence, that enhanced interrogation techniques have made us less safe. However, in the 1990’s there were attacks in America that culminated in the 9/11 attacks in 2001. After that point, the Bush Administration has managed to keep attacks from American soil. This accomplishment would have been unexpected if people were asked in the period following the 9/11 attacks about the prospects of a future attack.
The enhanced interrogation technique that elicits the most attention is waterboarding, which some argue is torture. However, it was only used against three of the very highest Al Qaeda operatives, over five years ago, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM). At time when Americans rightly felt another attack could come unexpectedly, KSM boasted of upcoming attacks on the US and personally slitting the throat of US journalist Daniel Perle. It is hard to argue that KSM is a sympathetic victim. The enhanced interrogation techniques did no severe harm to him and were successful, in providing important information. George Tenet, a CIA Director appointed by President Bill Clinton, stated “Information from these interrogations helped disrupt plots aimed at locations in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia.”
On the positive side, there is evidence that Obama is learning in office, as he shoulders the responsibility to protect Americans. He now sees the need for military tribunals to adjudicate cases of detainees — a practice that he sharply criticized Bush for during the campaign. Against his initial impulses, he correctly decided against releasing provocative photos taken by the US military in their prosecution of those who abused prisoners. He recognizes that there may be those that need “prolonged detention” without convictions for some extremely dangerous detainees. He may still come to see that whatever protections he wishes to provide detains at Guantanamo can be provided at the state-of-the-art facilities recently constructed there. After having to grapple with the same issues that Bush did, Obama is drawn to some of the same policy positions he criticized before.
Unfortunately, Obama has set himself up for embarrassment and political division in the country. If he changes course significantly with respect to US foreign policy and the way he deals with extremists and if there is a successful attack on the US, his policies will compare unfavorably with those of the previous administration. This is true, irrespective of whether any specific changes are in any way related to a future attack. Under such circumstances his wonderful smile and suave demeanor with only serve to indicate a lack of seriousness.
Middle Three Quintiles
Saturday, May 16th, 2009Every time I hear the mantra about the disappearing middle class, I want to ask if percentage of households in the middle three quintiles has changed. I am sure, many on Left out of ideological reflex would assure me that it has. Of course, the middle three quintiles of any distribution of income, or grades, or heights, by definition, will always contain 60% of the sample.
Mathematically literate people of any ideology quickly recognize this truth about the fraction of people in the middle quintile. Nonetheless, there many people who are genuinely concerned by the the observation that median household income seems to have stagnated. But this statistic is misleading, because it does not account for the changing nature of households. Households have shrunk in size. Steve Conover has shown that the income per worker has gone up. It is just that the number of workers per household has decreased offsetting this increase. Household, rather than individuals incomes say less about the economy and more about the way people have chosen to live their lives. Perhaps as individual income increase, people are free to opt to live in smaller households.
If you look at the distribution of income per earner as a function of time as shown below:
it appears that the middle class has just been happily pushed into higher income brackets.
Despite these statistics, many people genuinely feel that the economy has changed negatively for the “middle class” over the last few decades. I suspect that the source of this anxiety is associated with two important factors as opposed to the actual income distribution.
(1) It is very difficult to maintain a “middle-class” lifestyle with a job that is low skill. A retail worker like a shoe salesman or a low-skill factory worker used to be middle class. Low skill workers now have to compete with automation or low skill workers of other countries. The fraction of the US economy that is manufacturing is the same that it used to be, but manufacturing is now being performed by fewer and fewer more productive workers. Much like agriculture that dominated the economy in the 1800s’s, fewer and fewer people are required to produce more and more. This is as it should be. Our standard of living would be far lower if we as a country were so unproductive that low skill jobs were typical and people in them were middle income. The goal is arrange for as many people as possible to be prepared for high-skill jobs.
(2) Middle class is not what it used to be. Middle class Americans live in larger homes than their parents, have air conditioning when their parents did not, eat out more often than their parents did, and go on vacation more frequently. This does not even count the gadgets such as cell phones, computers, and large flat panel televisions that were not even available to the wealthy a generation ago. Our expectations are higher than those of our parents.
The real danger is that this anxiety will lead to government policies that reduce the dynamism of the economy in the name of security and make the progress we have already achieved less possible to sustain.
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