George Bush – A Literary Man

January 2nd, 2009

It is always amusing to run across a story that tells us as much about the people commenting on a story as about the immediate subject of the story. The recent Wall Street Journal column by former Bush presidential adviser Karl Rove represents just such a story. In the column, Rove reveals that President George W. Bush is not just voracious reader, but a competitive industrial-strength reader, averaging over a book a week. Apparently, Rove and Bush competed on who could read the most books in a year. Rove was the victor, but Bush was able to find time to read:

“… biographies of Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Carnegie, Mark Twain, Babe Ruth, King Leopold, William Jennings Bryan, Huey Long, LBJ, Genghis Khan. ” Other nonfiction included “Andrew Roberts’s A History of the English Speaking Peoples Since 1900, James L. Swanson’s Manhunt, and Nathaniel Philbrick’s Mayflower.” Bush’s reading tastes also extended to “eight Travis McGee novels by John D. MacDonald, Mr. Bush tackled Michael Crichton’s Next, Vince Flynn’s Executive Power, Stephen Hunter’s Point of Impact, and Albert Camus’s The Stranger, among others.”

What is most interesting is how people reacted. Of course, some simply did not believe the column because it ran so counter to the image of Bush in the media and painted by his political enemies. How could such a dolt or disinterested frat boy be so attracted to books? The best way to deal with inconvenient evidence is to ignore it or dismiss it.  Interesting, no one questions whether Rove, also a very busy person, read the number of books he reports reading. But, of course, Rove is an evil genius.

For Bush supporters, the story does provide some evidence of the intellectual capacity of the President. However, their opinion of the President would not have changed if he had read only  a few books while President. A president is a very busy and might be expected to primarily read work-related material. He would have to rely on the well of intellectual capital acquired before reaching office.

For those who dislike Bush — at least the ones who believe Roves’s reports — are compelled to spin the news negatively. On the basis of this evidence, you don’t here anyone saying, “Perhaps I was wrong in my estimation of Bush’s intelligence.” One approach is to criticize Bush for reading too much and not spending enough time actually implementing  policy. Another is to criticize his reading list as not sufficiently introspective or is in some other way inadequate. Yet another is to assert that Bush feigned being a good-old-boy to hide his trues intentions.

The truth is that the Left and the press has always found it rhetorically convenient to paint Bush as an idiot. The problem is that for the most part, Bush politically defeated his opponents, winning the presidency twice. To reconcile this success with the caricature, Bush had to have clever evil henchmen who did his thinking for him. The usual candidates where political adviser Karl Rove or  Vice-President Dick Cheney.

If the same story came out about Barack Obama, with the same list and volume, we would all be amazed at his commitment to pursuit of intellectual enrichment. It would be additional evidence that he is a thinking man.

Anyone who followed Bush carefully with an open mind should have realized how profoundly he is affected by books. Natan Sharansky, was a former Soviet dissident who managed to emigrate to Israel and rose the position of Deputy Prime Minister of Israel. Sharansky advocated a compelling thesis articulated in his book The Case for Democracy. The argument is that many of the world’s political problems were a consequence of the lack of true democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. The lack of these was the source of political disruption that leads to war and terrorism. Democracies do not fight one another.

Hence, one goal of American foreign policy should be to encourage democratic ideals. These arguments are part of the underpinning of Bush’s policies in Iraq and Afghanistan. One working definition of an intellectual is a person who takes ideas seriously. By this definition, Bush is an intellectual who put into practice ideas he acquired through reading, study, and reflection.

The tactic of painting a political adversary as not just wrong, but stupid, was applied to President Ronald Reagan. Lyndon Johnson’s Secretary of defense Clark Clifford once referred to Ronald Reagan as an “amiable dunce.” Ironically, Clifford died just  ahead of an indictment in a scandal surrounding Bank of Credit and Commerce International. He whined that in his defense,  “I have a choice of either seeming stupid or venal.” Claiming stupidity (not even amiable stupidity) was Clifford’s best defense.  By contrast, after Reagan left office, a compendium of his writings revealed a thoughtful and eloquent person.

Similarly, former President George H. W. Bush (41 to friends) was ridiculed for his mangled verbal expressions while in office. However, it turns out that Bush was an inveterate letter writer. The collection of these letters also reveals a delightful and intelligent writer, not consistent with his public persona.

2008 in Review

December 31st, 2008

No one can legitimately deny that 2008 was an interesting year.

Any presidential election year is bound to draw disproportionate attention, but this year particularly so. The US electorate elected its first African-American as president, Senator Barack Obama. Most importantly, the electoral race did not center on the question race. With the exception of a couple of ill chosen remarks about looking like the faces on currency [1], Obama avoided playing the “race card.” No one of any stature suggest that race disqualified Obama as president. There was no so-called “Bradley effect” where Americans would publicly say they would vote for a black candidate, but in the privacy of the voting booth allow a latent racism or fear prevent them from casting a vote for a black person. Americans were nearly as unprejudiced in the private deliberations as in their public statements. Americans clearly deserve more credit than they deserve. It is hard to imagine any other country that would elect a racial minority of that country as its chief executive.

Early in the year, Shelby Steele, was not enthusiastic about chances for a black president. In his view, any black had to be non-threatening to the white majority and not appear to be a candidate whose primary message was race. On the other hand such a candidate would not seem as an authentic black to fellow African-Americans. As it turns out, once it became clear that Obama had a realistic opportunity to win the presidential election, the prospect of a black American president excited African-Americans. There was no litmus test of authenticity.

This was embarrassing year for journalism. The enthusiasm for Obama was  so great that many lost even the appearance of objectivity.  The first victim of this bias was Senator Hillary Clinton who was regularly portrayed negatively by MSNBC. Hillary even began to appreciate Fox News. Actually, the Democratic primary was an amusing battle between the politics of gender and the politics of race with both candidates anxious to claim the mantel of representing a victim class without the weakness of appearing to be victim.

After the election there were media mea cuplas. The ombudsman of the Washington Post wrote:

“The Post provided a lot of good campaign coverage, but readers have been consistently critical of the lack of probing issues coverage and what they saw as a tilt toward Democrat Barack Obama. My surveys, which ended on Election Day, show that they are right on both counts.”

There were similar self-analysis from other organizations. The real question is why such retrospection and assessments were not forthcoming when they could have improved coverage during the campaign. The behavior of the main-stream-media is not healthy for democracy.

The biggest news of the year may have been news that fell off the front pages: the Iraq War. Largely because of the troop surge and the associated strategy, the War in Iraq is succeeding. Perhaps  the most important measure for Americans, the increased security in Iraq has resulted in dramatic reductions in American lost of life. This month thus far 14 Americans had died and only seven from hostile actions. Of course, any loss is devastating for the soldier’s family, but no one can deny that Iraq is largely now a settled issue — mostly as a consequence of the effectiveness of the American military.

Unfortunately, the victory will be a silent one as American troops are allowed to slowly return home as Iraqis become more and more responsible for their own security. In part because the media does not want to grant President Bush the credit for an important success Americans and troops will not enjoy the satisfaction of victory — just compensation for their sacrifice.

Finally, this is the year that the economy fell into a dramatic recession which has dramatically reduced stock values and real estate prices. Certainly, the business cycle has not been repealed and we can always expect episodic recessions. This particular recession was initiated under a complex interaction between public and private mistakes. The housing market was oversold largely under the encouragement of government to extend loans to people who could not afford them — the “sub-prime” crisis. The increase in oil prices helped trigger some of the defaults.

This crisis was then magnified by credit default swaps where  companies in a non-transparent fashion had traded risk. This radical increase in liability brought down many investment houses. As a consequence, the federal government had to intervene with massive bailouts (with dubious salutary effect) to rescue irresponsible behavior by large Wall Street investment house. We can hope that 2009 with mark the beginning of the recovery.

[1] Barack Obama: “‘Well, you know, he’s got a funny name and he doesn’t look like all the presidents on the dollar bills and the five dollar bills and, and they’re going to send out nasty emails.”

Standing Up to Fascists?

December 20th, 2008

This summer I enjoyed the rare pleasure of showing off Washington, DC to some German colleagues and friends of mine. Our wanderings took us past the reflecting pool in the shadow of  Lincoln Memorial, past the Korean War Memorial, and the newly opened memorial to those who lost their lives in World War II. Finally, we ended up on Pennsylvania Avenue in front of the White House. The area is a perennial place for protesters to exercise“ right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances” as guaranteed by the First Amendment to the US Constitution.

In this particular instance, one could debate how peaceable the assembly was. The assembly was no doubt an energetic petition for redress of grievances, where people were carrying signs protesting what they decried as a Fascist American government. Not being one to suffer fools easily, I kindly offered to the protesters the observation that the very ability of being able to protest in front of the White House, the home of the US chief executive, graphically undermined their argument. I am not sure they understood my comment, but they certainly did not find it persuasive. I had forgotten the rule that one should not argue with fools for too long for it grants them more credibility than they are entitled to.

I was reminded of this small story when watching the rude Iraqi who took it upon himself to show contempt for President George Bush (and the US incidentally) by throwing shoes at him. The projectiles missed their target largely due to the President’s ninja-like reflexes. The person making the assault has been detained and may yet imprisoned, but by his very act he undermined his own argument. Had the same act occurred during the regime of Saddam Hussein, not only would he have been executed, but so would his family and friends. The revenge would have been sure and swift and brutal [1]. The shoe assailant, Muntazer al-Zaidi, who the New York Times reports sympathized with the Nazi-inspired Baath, would never have dared such an action in the authoritarian state the US liberated.

Perhaps incident is best explained by Iraqi Ambassador Samir Sumaida’ie who challenged Code Pink protesters who would apparently side with and lionize a Nazi so long as he opposed President Bush.



[1] Amir Najmi, Middle East expert, personal communication, December 2008.

Determining the Limits of a Recession

December 14th, 2008

It was recently announced that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has determined that we are currently suffering in an economic recession, which began in December of 2007. Given the long time between the beginning of the recession and the official annoucement of a recession, one is given to wonder why the NBER took so long to come to such a formal determination.

The conventional definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Such a definition is convenient in that it is not ambiguous. Except for errors in estimating economic growth (say for example estimating economic growth to be 0.1% as opposed to -0.1%), there can be general agreement about when the economy is in recession.

For economic planning and reconstruction of economic history, it would be convenient to have a measure that would locate a recession in time with greater precision than two quarters.

The National Bureau of Economic Research is the official body for such determinations.According to the NEBR the defintion of a recession is based on:

“(1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. The committee also looks at monthly estimates of real GDP.”

However, history suggests that the industrial production (IP) metric dominates the determination of recession. The graphs below were pulled fromDavid Carbon (davidcarbon@dbs.com). They show industrial production as a function of time for the last four recessions.



The key to note here is that the beginning the recessions as defined by the NBER seem to correlated with the peak in industrial production and to end when industrial production turns upward (regains positive derivative). Of course, the month-to-month industrial production data can be noisy and it would not be appropriate to mark every little bump and dip in industrial production as a recession. It is thus necessary wait some time to determine if industrial production as really peaked or begun increasing again.

Industrial production measures manufacturing and mining output. Given the changing nature of the economy toward a service-based one, one can question how good a measure industrial production is. Nonetheless, it appears to be the proxy that it used by NBER for economic activity.The current recession is very interesting, at least from a graphical point of view.

The figure below is a plot of recent industrial production.


Note that in December of 2007, industrial production reached a local peak. However, the downturn afterwards was shallow. Indeed, during the summer of 2008, industrial production seemed to be on the rise. It is easy to understand why the NBER was reluctant to declare a recession at that point. Then in August and September, industrial production took a nose dive. The fact that we are in a recession is now unescapable. It is also interesting to note industrial production increased quickly last month. Whether this is a bump on a long-term bottom or a V-shaped recession remains to be seen. At this point, it would be premature for the NBER to make any determination.

Obama Opts Out of the Public School System

December 7th, 2008

For much of the last few years, the Left and the Left media have not been discontent to just oppose Bush’s Iraq War policies. They have tried to pull the rug from under George Bush’s sincerity with regard to the Iraq War. This was particularly true when the war was not going well. Now that the surge has apparently worked despite what the chattering classes just knew to be true, this sort of noise has diminished. Nonetheless, as recently has 2007, the LA Times was whining that the Bush family was not setting a good example by serving in the military.

Jenna Bush was donating the her earnings from her book to UNICEF, yet the LA Times complained that the ``25-year-old makes the rounds of TV talk shows this fall in a White House limousine, dozens of her contemporaries will be arriving home from Iraq in wooden boxes.”

Of course, and the LA Times knows it, it is not  possible to hold  Bush morally responsible for his adult daughters’ decisions. There is no evidence that if any of the Bush children wished to serve in the military George Bush would have objected. Moreover, as Prince Harry of Great Britain discovered, despite the noblest of intentions to serve, the presence of celebrity can endanger other soldiers.

It is not unreasonable for parents to have mixed feelings about dangerous occupations for their children. For example, everyone would agree that firefighting is a noble and dangerous profession that is crucial for society. Yet there is no parent of a firefighter who does not worry about the safety of their child and many who wish their children would find a safer occupation. This does make parents hypocrites, but parents.

It is unlikely that the LA Times will rope President-elect Barack Obama with he same stilted standards it tries to bind Bush with. Obama was supported overwhelmingly by public school teachers’ union members. Yet when given the opportunity to use the services offered by his ardent supporters, he politely declined. He will not send his young daughters to a District of Columbia public school, something the President Jimmy Carter did. Despite having heaped praise on D.C. schools chancellor Michelle Rhee, Obama will be sending his daughters to the elite private school, Sidwell Friends. What does this say about Obama’s real assessment of DC public schools? This particular school choice is a decision made by the adult Obamas, not by their children as in the case of military service for Bush’s children.

This is not a criticism of Obama. He has an positive obligation to provide for the best education of his children. If he did less, we should all believe less of him. However, we should remember that Obama’s choice is an option that he withholds from others when he stands with the public school teachers’ union in refusing to give the parents of poor children even modest school choice.

Nor are we likely to see the LA Times praise Senator John McCain or Governor Sarah Palin for sincerity on their Iraq War positions since they have children who serve or have served there.

They Told Me If I Voted for McCain…

November 29th, 2008

A now four-decade-old piece of political wit reminds us that Conservatives were told in 1964 that if they voted for Senator Barry Goldwater (running against President Lyndon Johnson), the US would be bombing Vietnam within a year. Darn it, if the warnings weren’t right. Conservatives voted for Barry Goldwater and the US was bombing Vietnam within a year. With a similar tongue planted firmly in cheek, we can amuse ourselves with President-elect Barack Obama’s recent choices and actions.

They told me if I voted for Senator John McCain, we would retain President Bush’s Secretary of Defense and pursue a policy of gradually turning over security responsibilities to the Iraqis rather than implementing a quick withdrawal. Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain and Robert Gates is the Secretary of Defense pursing precisely the deliberate strategy of yielding responsibilities to the Iraqis as they are able. Given the recent status of forces agreement with Iraq, Obama will be following Bush’s withdrawal schedule.

They told me if I voted for Senator John McCain, we would continue to have a hard-nosed woman leading the State Department who supported the Iraq War when it was initiated. Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain and Hillary Clinton will be the Secretary of Defense.

They told me if I voted for Senator John McCain, we would we have free-trading-believing financial-world insiders leading the country’s economic team. Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain and Timothy Geithner, President of the New York  Federal Reserve who was instrumental in the bailouts of Bear Sterns and AIG, will be the new Treasury Secretary.

They told me if I voted for Senator John McCain, we would keep President Bush’s tax cuts. Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain and the Obama Administration will keep the Bush tax cuts for at least a little while longer.

They told me if I voted for Senator John McCain, we would maintain an aggressive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to track terrorist plotting against the United States. Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain and to the chagrin of the hard Left, Obama, whether out of political conviction or convenience, supported a FISA bill rejected by Congressional Democrats.

They told me if I voted for Senator John McCain, we would nominate an Attorney General who believes that the Geneva Accords do not apply to those detained at Guantanamo.  Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain, and Eric Holder, the likely attorney general, believes those held at Guantanamo are “not prisoners of war” and are thus not entitled to Geneva Accords prisoner status.

They told me if I voted for Senator McCain, we would have a third Bush term. Darn it, if they weren’t right. I voted for McCain, and we are in many ways following a Bush economic and foreign policy strategy.

Gasoline Stimulus Package

November 23rd, 2008

Our government is now considering the possibility of a stimulus package to prop up the staggering economy and how big this package should be. Whatever the ultimate wisdom of such an idea, it seems that the recent precipitous drop in gasoline prices alone is providing some measure of stimulus. Focus for an instant on gasoline alone and neglect the savings in fuel oil and the propagation of the reduction of the price of oil through the economy. Any savings from lower costs for fuels other than gasoline will only add to the total we compute below.

According the the Energy Information Administration in 2007, the US consumed gasoline at the rate of 18,457 thousand barrels per day (or 18,457 million barrels per day). Integrated over a year, this amounts to about 6.7 billion barrels. One barrel of gasoline is about 31 gallons. Hence over the course of a year, Americans drive through 209 billion gallons. Gasoline has plummeted  from $4 a gallon to about $2. As a consequence, Americans will save over $400 billion from what they would have paid for  gas.

Last year the government attempted a stimulus package returning $300 to $1200 per taxpayer yielding a $168 billion in stimulus. This provides a way a scaling the stimulus we are receiving from decreased gas prices. Is this stimulus enough? We do not pretend to know here, but we are already stimulating at four times the rate we did earlier in the year.

Moderate Choices So Far – Save One

November 22nd, 2008

Since President-elect Barack Obama has only reached the collective national consciousness over the last few years, it was very possible for people to project on the attractive politician the qualities they would want in a leader. Many believe he will moderate the highly-partisan and far-Left Congressional leaders Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and US Senate Leader Harry Reid. Given Obama’s history in Chicago and his voting record in the Illinois State Senate and US Senate, there was no reason to believe he holds moderate political views. It is not likely that he is a closet moderate. However, it might the case he has few political convictions and simply angles for current political advantage. In any case, Obama appears to making some wise selections and at least one foolish appointment to his cabinet.

At this point, it appears as though Obama will allow Defense Secretary Robert Gates to continue on in the new Administration. Gates is not a highly political person. Since he replaced former Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Gates has managed to turn the Iraq War around while not unnecessarily antagonizing Democrats in Congress.  Iraq is looking more and more like a success. The steady reduction in the number of causalities and turn over of security responsibilities to the Iraqis will diminish Iraq as an issue. The re-appointment of Gates will protect Obama on the political Right and the angry Left will be forced to endure a quiet American success rather than a loud American defeat. Unless Obama terribly misjudges, Iraq will not become a Vietnam.

The appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State is also an astute choice. Senator Clinton would have been the only other independent power base in the Democratic Party that could challenge Obama. She will now be incorporated in his Administration. Her political fortunes are now linked to his. As Secretary of State, she would be co-oped politically without being so close to the White House as to cause mischief. Although Clinton is not particularly moderate, she projected moderation and maturity in her foreign policy positions when running for president. I suppose to be safe, a President Obama could always arrange for those 3 a.m. phone calls to be re-directed to Clinton who claimed to be ready to receive to them.

The real disappointment thus far is the apparent selection of Eric Holder for Attorney General. Successful Attorney Generals have been both competent and apolitical. Holder is too much of a partisan to be an effective AG. Ironically, he got his start when appointed as a judge of the Superior Court of the Districit of Columbia by Ronald Reagan. Yet he has not showed the moral stature to stand up to power at personal cost in the name of justice. During the last moments of the Clinton Administration, Holder ushered through a large number of controversial pardons, including the corrupt pardon of Marc Rich, that by-passed the traditional Justice Department process. It was certainly within the authority of the President to issue pardons, but that does not obligate the Justice Department to bless them. Holder has his moment to demonstrate a profile in courage and he failed. Even the Liberal editorial board of the LA Times opined, “…the wisest course for Barack Obama would be to choose an eminent lawyer who shares the administration’s legal philosophy but can’t be caricatured as a presidential insider. For all of his impressive qualities, former Deputy Attorney. General Eric H. Holder Jr. doesn’t fit that description.”

In 1999,  Hillary Clinton was seeking the New York Senate seat being vacated by Daniel Patrick Moynihan. According the National Review, “over the objections of the FBI, the Bureau of Prisons, and prosecuting attorneys, Holder supported Clinton’s commutation of the sentences of 16 FALN conspirators.” The pardon were so unwarranted and so conspicuously political that in a bi-partisan fashion the Senate condemned the action 95-2 followed by the House 311-41. Holder demonstrated far more partisanship than the Senate and the House could muster, a high bar to overcome.

Even on the merits of the law, Holder has found himself conspicuously out of the mainstream. The US Supreme Court recently ruled in the District of Columbia v. Heller that the Second Amendment right to keep an bear arms is an “individual” rather than collective right. Even Obama himself conceded as much. However, Holder voluntarily joined in an amicus curiae brief arguing the exact opposite. If he had been AG when the Heller case came up, he probably would not have pursued it to the Supreme Court and the Second Amendment would be at greater risk.

Obama will make more decisions in the days to come, and perhaps some of the people who are now whispered choices will be disappointed.  With each choice Obama will define his presidency and so far the choices have been, with the exception of Holder, moderate and largely conventional.

It’s Over?

November 16th, 2008

Whatever the particular details around the “Mission Accomplished” sign prominently above President George W. Bush’s head when he spoke on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln as it returned from Iraq in 2003, all have been appropriate chastened against declaring victory in Iraq prematurely. Hence, it is with a “knock-on-wood” attitude that we have observed the steadily declining death toll among Americans and Iraqis. Indeed, from month-to-month, the number of American killed from hostile actions is very close to the number dying from non-hostile causes, ranging from illnesses to automobile. The reduction in violence is even more evident in the number of wounded which show the downward trends with less statistical fluctuation.

Is it time to declare victory? Former Green Beret, Michael Yon, an embedded independent journalist in Iraq who has often been critical of US strategy has concluded as much. He wrote in July of this year, “The war in Iraq is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won.” More specifically, “A counterinsurgency is won when the government’s legitimacy is no longer threatened by the insurgents, the government is able to protect its own people and the people are participating in the government. In Iraq, all three conditions apply.”

Since July, the low death tolls are continuing their decline. This is not to say that peace is not fragile, or that  any peace can not devolve over time to war. However, victory is at hand and none too soon. If Senator Barack Obama had been president two years ago, the US would have withdrawn already, without implementing the successful surge strategy. Iraq would have been a strategic and moral defeat that would destabilized the Middle East and augmented the influence of radical Islamists, particularly in Iran.

President Obama has two choices: precipitous withdrawal endangering the present increase instability, or slowly pull out troops as the Iraqis standup. The latter policy will irritate the far Left who have counted on defeat in Iraq, but so long as the death tolls recede there will be no strong political incentive to risk defeat. Given the present situation and the long term improvement in Iraq, any Obama policy that increases military instability in Iraq now will be all to easy to blame on Obama. He is too smart to take that risk. The biggest foreign policy risk of a John Kerry presidency  in 2004 will not be a similar risk in the Obama presidency.

The Dangers of Judicial Activism

November 9th, 2008

Whenever a court over rules a law, it is, by definition, in conflict with the democratic decision of the people. We, however,  wisely give courts the authority to interpret between laws that are in conflict and to hold us collectively to state or the federal constitutions, laws we democratically agreed would be supreme law.

The courts have  a prudential obligation to exercise this authority sparingly lest they diminish the moral authority of judicial system and decrease the ability of courts to exercise such authority in crucial cases. When overturning long-held societal conventions, courts must be able to point to a clear constitutional mandate. If courts are perceived to be acting politically rather than under legal authority, they distort the balance between the legislative and judicial processes.

The courts were correctly used to overturn racial discrimination when practiced by state or federal governments in the twentieth century, but it took federal law, the 1964 Civil Rights Act, to eliminate any legal sanction for racial discrimination. The endorsement by a popularly-elected legislature completed the process.

By contrast, the clearest recent example of the overstepping of judicial authority was the Roe v. Wade decision which concluded from ambiguous and dubious constitutional jurisprudence that states essentially have no right to regulate abortion in at least the first trimester. If there were clear rather than convoluted authority to support the decision, it would have been easier to reconcile it with popular opinion.

At the time of the decision in 1973, abortion was still prohibited in many states, but legal in quite a few others. The country was coming to grips with how it wished to deal with issue. If the courts had declined to preempt the political process, we would now probably have a web of diverse laws from state to state, some more liberal some less so on abortion. Some states would be more rigorous about parental notification and about waiting periods. It would have been far easier to experiment with the different approaches from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

These political decisions would have carried the moral authority of the majority and resulted far less rancor. If mistakes were made, they could more easily been undone. Instead, we have a divisive issue that has made the appointment of each new Supreme Court justice an acrimonious affair and has distorted jurisprudence in other, particularly free speech, cases.

You might think that the courts would have learned their lesson in dealing with these  highly-charged social issues, but in 2004 the Massachusetts Supreme Court declared that the Massachusetts Constitution required that the state offer same-sex marriages. This decision survived in Massachusetts and indeed in a 4-3 decision the Connecticut Supreme Court forced that state to recognize gay marriages.

The consequence of such judicial meddling is that across the country states are passing laws directly preventing same-sex marriages. Despite the rather overwhelming Democratic national victories last Tuesday, the issue of gay marriage failed miserably at the polls. After a California Supreme Court decision compelling the state to recognize gay marriages, Proposition 8 passed with 52% in California vastly out performing presidential candidate, Senator McCain who managed only 37% of the vote. The Proposition 8 decision was a particularly dramatic vote, because it imposed a state constitutional amendment to tie the hands of the California Supreme Court. It is not politically healthy to have people overturn a court decision by referendum, but this is what happens when decisions are removed from the legislature where they are more properly decided.

Other states followed California’s example. Arizona and Florida passed anti-gay marriage propositions, also out polling Senator McCain in those jurisdictions. Arkansans voted for an act to prohibit non-married couples from adopting children and becoming foster parents;  an act largely directed at same-sex partners.

Given expected changes in the national culture including relentless promotion of a pro-gay rights agenda in the national media, it is reasonable to expect that some states will vote to recognize gay unions in some form. The most likely is some civil union arrangement that provides for simple inheritance and other financial rules that mirror some marriage protections. These will be instituted in fits and starts using different models as different jurisdictions find ways  to deal with the issue.

There is no reasonable construction of most state constitutions and the national constitution which compels acceptance of same-sex marriages. The more courts attempt to force the issue the more likely there will be political blow back that will undermine the authority of the courts, increase the political acrimony, and extend the time before which some reasonable and widely popular resolution of the issue is accepted.