Archive for the ‘Social Commentary’ Category

When Chapter 11 Does Not Mean Bankruptcy

Sunday, February 10th, 2002

Within the United States, free trade works to the benefit of all. Goods and services pass easily between Pennsylvania and Maryland, between California and Nevada, between Georgia and Florida. One reason internal US trade works is that the rule of law exists. If a fraudulent transaction takes place in one state, there is a reasonable chance that someone in another state can achieve effective recourse in the courts. In addition, although states can enact legislation locally, the federal government retains the exclusive right to regulate interstate commerce. Indeed, it was the impediments to free trade between states under the Articles of Confederation that motivated the writers of the Constitution to prohibit the states from regulating interstate commerce.

The presence of barriers to international commerce had been an impediment to prosperity in Europe. The rise of the European Union represents a recognition of this. Europe is on a rapid track to full economic integration, now that these countries largely share a common currency.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is an attempt to largely achieve the benefits of free trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The increase in trade and prosperity following the enactment of the agreement is a testimony to the benefits of free trade. There was not the great “sucking sound” of jobs being vacuumed out of the United States predicted by some.

Nonetheless, Bill Moyers in the PBS program Now: Trading Democracy focuses on what may turn out to be an important if not fatal flaw in the agreement. Whereas most corporations would like to avoid Chapter 11 when it refers to bankruptcy, some that invest in foreign countries are trying exploit Chapter 11 of NAFTA. The offending section Chapter reads:

“No Party may directly or indirectly nationalize or expropriate an investment of an investor of another Party in its territory or take a measure tantamount to nationalization or expropriation of such an investment (“expropriation”), except: (a) for a public purpose; (b) on a nondiscriminatory basis; (c) in accordance with due process of law and Article 1105(1); and (d) on payment of compensation….”

Actually, the provision seems to make sense. If one wants to encourage investment, the investors must be confident that their investments will not be arbitrarily seized. The penalty for the expropriation is payment of fair market compensation.

The problem that Moyers focuses on in his special is potential overly broad interpretation of the “tantamount to expropriation” clause. Apparently, California passed an environmental regulation limiting the chemical additive MTBE in gasoline. The chemical had found its way into ground water and there are serious questions about the long-term health consequences of human exposure to MTBE. The Canadian company, Methanex is a major manufacturor of MTBE. It is now suing California under Chapter 11 of NAFTA. Methanex is submitting to an arbitration tribunal set up as part of NAFTA a request for nearly $1 billion in compensation for an act that is “tantamount to nationalization or expropriation.”

Essentially, the thesis of Moyers Special is that the corporations will be able to use the Chapter 11 provision of NAFTA to assert that any government action that might reduce profits is equivalent to expropriation. While such creative interpretations are possible by the tribunal, they are not likely to survive long. Either the tribunal’s rulings will be consistently reasonable or the treaty will be re-negotiated.

The clause cited above specifically gives governments the right to regulate so long as the regulation is directed to a “public purpose” and “nondiscriminator.” Indeed, later in the NAFTA agreement, environmental regulations are specifically allowed.

“Nothing in this Chapter shall be construed to prevent a Party from adopting, maintaining or enforcing any measure otherwise consistent with this Chapter that it considers appropriate to ensure that investment activity in its territory is undertaken in a manner sensitive to environmental concerns.”

It is always possible for creative lawyers to conjure up new interpretations of a law inconsistent with the original understanding of those who drafted the legislation. Indeed, that is the goal of much of modern interpretation of Constitutional law. It is the purpose of courts and other tribunals to dismiss interpretations that are too expansive. It was disappointing that Moyers did not discuss in greater details the other provisions of Chapter 11 relating to environmental regulation.

What was amusing was to see in the Now program, the solemn hand wringing of William Greider of the Liberal Nation magazine and Martin Wagner of Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund concerned about national sovereignty. I suspect that neither would shed a tear about national sovereignty if international environment agreements were used to compel compliance to stricter environmental regulations even if they US cost jobs and trumped local or national decisions.

There are very important and legitimate concerns about limitations of sovereignty in any international agreement. It is nice to see the Left learn such a concern. Possible unreasonable interpretations of NAFTA ought to be scrutinized. Nonetheless, it does seem that a dispassionate reading of the entire NAFTA agreement would preclude the problems cited in the Moyers special. If, however, the NAFTA tribunal makes consistently unreasonable or expansive interpretations, NAFTA should be reconsidered. The problem that Moyers focuses on is not a problem with the concept of free trade, but in the details in implementing a free trade protocol in the age of creative interpretation of the law.

A Conservative Not a Libertarian

Saturday, February 2nd, 2002

Thomas Jefferson argued that the government that governs best is the government that governs least. Though there is some truth to this assertion, it is probably truer that the government that governs best is simply the government that governs best.

Over the last couple of decades, there has been an alliance of sorts between traditional Conservatives and Libertarians opposing “Liberal” big government. Libertarians insist on a minimalist government and oppose, on principle, an ever larger and more intrusive state. To Libertarians economic markets are the preferred regulators of behavior.

Traditional Conservatives, while not necessarily opposed to strong government, were not sympathetic with the uses the Liberals were making of it. Though Liberals attempted out of good intentions to use government to help those in need, their approach has often degenerated into creating, encouraging and subsidizing a dependent class in exchange for political power. It is ironic that the more successful 1960’s Liberalism is in transforming the disadvantaged classes into the middle class, the less need there is for their programs. Their political saliency increases only in proportion to the failure of their policies.

What Libertarians sometimes overlook is that the functional free markets they worship as the regulators of daily transactions do not sprout like weeds from any soil. Conservatives recognize that markets must be planted and nurtured. Libertarians have long accepted the necessity for the rule of law, the regularization of and enforcement of transactions and contracts, and provisions for public order.

Important as such structures are, they are woefully insufficient by themselves. The complex and numerous interactions between individuals require an implicit trust such that in large measure third-party enforcement is not necessary. If every transaction required a regulator, the normal efficiencies of markets would be overwhelmed and destroyed. Markets depend on the character of the people. Markets cannot prosper without an ethos of trust, integrity and honesty. The undermining of this trust by the irresponsible actions of companies like Enron demoralize the markets necessary for prosperity.

One role of government, recognized by traditional Conservatives and not by Libertarians, is to take care to improve the character of individuals, a character necessary for a free people. Such concern might take the form of a tax code that encourages traditional families, private savings for retirement, and contributions to non-profit charities. Such a concern might take the form of anti-discrimination laws that teach tolerance. Such a concern might take the form of strict enforcement of Securities and Exchange Commission laws that reinforce the notion that success is a function of hard work and luck, the not result of fraudulent tactics.

President George W. Bush has proven to be less of Libertarian and more of a traditional Conservative. When he ran for office, he emphasized government-private partnership in providing the community-based services that large government bureaucracies find so difficult to provide effectively. Faith-based solutions have proven particularly effective for problems of drug addiction.

In the recent state of the union address, Bush seems to be concerned about the self-centeredness taught by a society that focuses too much on material acquisition and too little on other values. For too long our culture has said, “`If it feels good, do it.’ Now America is embracing a new ethic and a new creed: `Let’s roll.”’ Bush used the unity in the wake of the September 11 attacks to focus Americans outwards. He asked Americans to personally reach out and help others in their own communities. Bush asked Americans to commit two years somewhere in their lives to volunteering for others, to share of themselves.

Frankly, the expansion of government volunteer programs, like his USA Freedom Corps, may tend to crowd out rather than encourage local efforts. Nonetheless, Bush’s instinct to call upon the better angels of our natures, to ask us to care for those around us, makes Bush a traditional Conservative. Libertarians would deem such considerations outside the legitimate scope of government. For this reason, Libertarians will likely not make good leaders. And in the long run, a government that takes care to help create good citizens, a government concerned about character, is the one that will have to govern least.

Foot-in-Mouth Disease

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2002

The World Organization for Animal Health recently certified Britain to be rid of the foot-and-mouth disease that had devastated the British meat industry. Unfortunately, the certification applied only to agriculture and not to the infestation of foot-and-mouth disease in the British media. The British press, especially the tabloid press, has deliberately distorted the nature of the detention a few hundred al Qaeda and Taliban from Afghanistan at Camp X-Ray in Guantanamo, Cuba. They have selectively presented information and suggested that Americans may be using torture against the detainees.

Much of this began with a Defense Department photograph showing detainees kneeling and shackled right before they were placed in cells. The photograph suggested to those predisposed to believe the worst that the United States was deliberately humiliating and mistreating detainees. We were reminded that the use of legirons harks back the days of American slavery. It turns out that additional restraints are used when the detainees are moved, not while they are in their cells. To not use these additional restraints with these dangerous detainees, in the words of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, would be “stupid.”

The Mirror provides an obvious example of such deliberate distortion. They ran a headline “Vietnam War Hero Condemns Camp X-Ray.” The veteran in question, Col. James Hughes, had once been captured and paraded around by the Viet Cong. If you read the quotations from Col. Hughes, you see someone unwilling to make any accusation, because unlike the British press, he doesn’t pretend to be informed. The worst he could say was that, “I just hope that they are not being treated like animals… I am enormously concerned about the welfare of anyone who’s being held in captivity.” The statement is an eloquent expression of generalized concern by a former victim of brutality, not any a specific condemnation of US actions as stated by the headline.

Much of the furor has died down and explanations about Camp X-Ray have been provided. The International Red Cross has visited and British officials and a US Congressional delegation have not found mistreatment of the detainees.

The real question is why the British press was so apparently anxious to accuse the United States of brutality, why even members of the British Parliament rushed to judgment. When thousands of Americans were killed in the September 11 attacks, almost all Europeans truly felt anguish at the loss of life. However, there was a small minority, irritated by the United States as the only superpower, smug in the realization that perhaps the United States had got its comeuppance. So long as Americans are victims, so long as Americans are being pulled from ruble, Europeans are sympathetic. When the United States exercises its right of response, some of the European Left gets squeamish and accusatory.

This anti-Americanism on the Left is not exclusive to Europeans and began as soon as US military action began. At the end of last year, there were exaggerated reports of civilian causalities in Afghanistan. Using press reports, Professor Marc W. Herold, of the University of New Hampshire, estimated civilian casualties of nearly 4,000 people. Given that the death count at the World Trade Center has been difficult to determine even in a open society and the fact that it is difficult to identify the civilians and Taliban and al Qaeda, it is foolish in the extreme to use press reports (many from papers unsympathetic to the United States) to compute a civilian casualty count. Herold’s civilian casualty total exceeds that of that claimed by the notoriously mendacious Taliban. Now the British press cites Herold uncritically as if he has a definitive casualty count.

A report from Edward Cody of the Washington Post Foreign Service illustrates the difficulty in untangling was it really going on in Afghanistan. On December 29, 2001, US forces destroyed a number of brick homes near Qalai Niazi, Afghanistan. Was this an attack on civilians or a legitimate military target? According to Cody, “Journalists who arrived here [Qalai Niazi, Afghanistan] on Sunday found a large store of ammunition that filled one little house, from boxes of rifle rounds to stacks of antitank rockets. But, by today, [Thursday] it had been hauled away, and people now swear it was never here in the first place.” One can understand how locals might want to distance themselves from the Taliban and al Qaeda, however, this motivation tends to diminish their credibility.

The foreign press has a positive obligation to examine every country critically, including the United States. No one supportive of liberty wants a lapdog press anywhere in the world. However, the zeal with which the British and European media have leapt to assert the worst on the basis of thin evidence reveals more about these media outlets than it does about the US military.

Enron as an Inkblot Test

Sunday, January 20th, 2002

In 1921, the Swisss psychoanalyst Hermann Roschach published his research on the interpretation of inkblots in the book Pyschodiagnostik. Since that time, there has been a school of psychiatry that supports then notion that the reaction of patients to inkblots can be used to analyze personality — the so-called “Roschach Inkblot Test.” The idea is that people will project their own preoccupations on to an image of random inkblots. There are different views on the interpretation of patient responses to inkblots, but there is no doubt that the term “Roschach Inkblot Test” has become a metaphor for any event where the interpretation of the event says more about the observer than about the event. The responses to the bankruptcy of the Enron energy corporation, in many cases, is suh an inkblot set.

For those who dearly wish to see a Republican scandal, the “closeness” of Enron to members of the Administration represents the “appearance” of untoward influence. Who knows, there may be a scandal somewhere that has not been discovered. It appears now that Enron executives asked for special considerations and were denied by Administration officials. Indeed, it seems Enron received more favorable consideration from the previous Administration. Enron executives accompanied that the Clinton Administration’s Trade Representative Mickey Kanter and Commerce Secretary Ron Brown on foreign missions to drum up business. This was not an evil thing. Kanter and Brown were doing something that many want the government to do: help gain American businesses entrees overseas.

It is ironic that Enron lobbied heavily with the Clinton Administration in favor of passing the Kyoto Accords. The agreement would have shifted American energy production from coal to natural gas. The shift would have benefited Enron with its large stocks of natural gas. Now alignment of goals between Enron and the Clinton Administration does not imply corruption. The Clinton Administration was ideologically inclined to support Kyoto and were not pushed into that position by contributions from Enron.

For those who want “campaign finance reform,” the Enron case represents additional reason to limit political contributions, and hence free speech rights. In actuality, the situation persuasively makes just the opposite case. If Enron bought influence with all its campaign contributions and could not buy a bailout to save itself, then they managed their lobbying even worse than they did their main business.

For those who oppose privatizing some portion of Social Security, the fact that Enron employees lost great fractions (if not all) of their the 401(k) retirement savings when the Enron stock collapsed is one more reason to avoid trusting people to make their own decisions about retirement investment. Of course, such a conclusion deliberately overlooks the fact that any partial replacement of Social Security investments on the part of individuals would be far more diversified than a fund comprise of a single stock.

The Enron bankruptcy is in some ways a good thing. One premise of capitalism is that poorly run companies loose the economic battle and fall by the wayside.

Nonetheless, in addition to suspected insider trading of Enron stock by corporate executives, there does appear to be a grave accounting scandal here. Some large accounting firms that make a lot of money auditing large corporations have a vested interest in overlooking poor, creative, or just plain fraudulent accounting practices. When the dust settles, the Arthur Anderson accounting firm may find itself as legally liable as Enron for potentially fraudulent reporting.

In a recent column, George Will reminded other Conservatives that free markets are government creations that need to provide transparency to economic transactions. It is a government obligation to enforce such a transparency. From the Enron debacle, we should learn several important lessons:

  1. Structures need to be adjusted to mitigate the vested interests accounting firms have with companies. Accounting firm executives should not have separate consulting contracts with the companies they audit. Perhaps the accounting firms should be limited to having only a certain fraction of their income dependent on a single company. For large firms, perhaps consortia of accounting firms should be used, each keeping an eye on the other. Large companies, like large governments, can sometimes become a law unto their own.
  2. The regulations governing 401(k) retirement programs should be amended. Perhaps compensation in company stock by companies in the retirement programs they are sponsoring could be limited to a certain percentage. In addition, employees should have the immediate right to diversify their accounts in other investments.

If the Enron collapse leads to reforms in these two areas, the entire debacle could yet produce important positive consequences

Too Crazy to Make Up

In the category of “Too Crazy to Make Up” we have two items this week.

Monument to Political Correctness and Historical Revisionism

It seems that New York City developer Forest Ratner is returning to his senses. He had originally commissioned a $180,000 monument commemorating the sacrifice of the New York City Firefighters during their rescue efforts after the attacks on September 11. In the wake of public criticism Ratner agreed to reconsider the nature of monument.

The monument was to be based on the famous photograph by Thomas Franklin, showing three New York City firemen raising an American flag over the ruins of the twin World Trade Centers. The photo was reminiscent of the raising of the flag over Iwo Jima in World War II.

Most people see three proud firefighters in the image. It seems that some people, who can only look at the world through a prism that splits the world into different colors, saw only white firefighters. In an act of historical inaccuracy and “affirmative action,” a model of the future monument showed a white, a black, and an Hispanic firefighter. No one would have objected to a different or an additional monument that might have showed different ethic or race groups as firefighters. People objected to deliberate historical inaccuracy in pursuit of a political agenda. People should remember that the mindset that is willing to revise history when necessary is often the same one applied to the revision of history textbooks re-written to emphasize multiculturalism.

ACLU and Airport Security

Many people are excessively concerned about airport security. However, it can be safely asserted, without fear of contradiction, that the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) does not suffer from this affliction. The ACLU is challenging in court the citizenship requirement for airport screeners contained in the recent Aviation and Transportation Security Act. Since we are now treating screeners as quasi-law enforcement personnel, requiring citizenship seems like a rather nominal requirement.

No one should claim surprise at this ACLU position. It follows in the wake of other ACLU positions. For example, the ACLU argues that the application of facial recognition technology at airport security checkpoints is an unconstitutional invasion of privacy. In 1996, the ACLU expressed its concern that, “…the privacy of all airplane passengers is jeopardized by the trend towards heightened security measures.” In a prescient observation, the ACLU worried that, “Intrusive `body scanners,’ personal interrogation, and a national database designed to track travel habits warn of future compromises that all travelers will have to make the next time an undetected terrorist attack occurs.” One wonders why they did not also worry about the attack itself.

Grasping for the Flag

Sunday, January 13th, 2002

Patriotism does not imply a slavish and uncritical acquiescence to everything one’s country does. Love of country, like love of another, means expecting and wanting the best from the object of love. Criticism from the “loyal opposition” is an outgrowth of the love of, not the hate of country. The 1960s provide examples of important and thoughtful criticism born of love of country and condemnation borne of contempt. Strong feelings polarized Americans and blurred the meaning of American symbols like the flag.

One of the reasons Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., was so persuasive a voice for white and black Americans was because he placed American shortcomings in the context of aspirations of what America could and should be. Rather than berating America for its sins, he awakened consciences. King did not condemn America as evil as much illuminate the inconsistency with America’s premises and the treatment of black Americans. In his famous, “I Have a Dream” speech delivered on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, King explained:

“When the architects of our great republic wrote the magnificent words of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence, they were signing a promissory note to which every American was to fall heir.”

Black Americans were just asking the rest of America to live up to its promises. King’s Dream was that “…one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed.” King’s criticism of US civil rights policies was an ultimate act of the love of country, a love that was often unrequited.

The anti-war movement was somewhat different. If possible, the Vietnam War was more polarizing than the Civil Rights Movement. Though opposition to the war in Vietnam came from all political quarters, there was a strong anti-American undercurrent in the anti-war movement. For some, Vietnam may have been a mistake where the US faltered. For others, the US was an inherently evil and immoral country and the Vietnam War was just the most conspicuous evidence of this wickedness.

Peggy Noonan, the former speechwriter for President Ronald Reagan and a Democrat by birth, recounts an incident illustrating this attitude. Noonan was on a bus trip to an anti-war demonstration in 1971. Soon Noonan realized that she was not with a group that shared her love of country. She observed from others on the bus not patriotism, but loathing and contempt for America. The US was to these people not a good and great country trying to extricate itself from a ground war in Asia, but a “racist, genocidal nation with an imperialistic lust for land…”

The passions of the time were so strong that the nation’s symbols started to blur. Some on the far Left began to burn the American flag as a sign of their displeasure. Those in favor of the war waved the flag that much harder in response. Soon, it was impossible to display the flag without the implication that one supported the War in Vietnam and disrespect for the flag became a conventional way to show anti-war sentiment. In one famous photograph from the time that illustrates misuse of the flag, a person assaulted an anti-war protestor using a flag as a weapon. This so of symbol misuse exacerbated the polarization of the war. To be anti-war carried the implication of being anti-American.

After the attack of September 11, the flag again became a symbol of American unity and support for the victims. Flags were plastered on bumper stickers, festooned over windows, pinned to lapels, and proudly flown over homes. US Flags sprouted across the land like wheat on the plains of Kansas. While some might expect flag-waving sentimentality by primitives in the mid-west, flags spontaneously appeared even in sophisticated and progressive cities like New York and Los Angeles. Goodness, the next thing you know, people might even offer up prayers.

Americans under 40 could rush to the flag at a time of stress unburdened by the self-consciousness of the baby-boomers. Not everyone is so fortunate. Trapped by the attitudes of their politically formative years some pundits and the legions of university thought police whined that waving the flag might somehow suppress different viewpoints. One can only imagine the chagrin of those on the Left when chants of “USA! USA!” greeted George Bush at Ground Zero in New York City.

Those fearful that the flag might become a club to enforce lock-step conformity ought not complain when others wave the flag. Rather, they should wave the flag in the midst of whatever critique they have. To do otherwise is to allow patriotism to be appropriated by only one side. This is unhealthy for political dialogue. Maintaining the tradition of the loyal opposition requires that opposition to grasp even more strongly at national symbols.

Of course, this suggestion is moot for those who really do hate America.

Is There Reason For Optimism?

Sunday, January 6th, 2002

Perhaps the lowest order measure of whether circumstances are improving for the bulk of mankind is life expectancy. Thomas Hobbs described life before civilization as “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish,and short.” In the Stone Age, the average human life expectancy was 25 years. Largely because of improved sanitation, the increased availability of untainted food and water, and medical advances, life expectancy over the last century has radically improved. In the United States, for example, life expectancy increased from 48 years in 1900 to a current 76.9 years.

Around the world there are pockets of problems. The spread of the lethal AIDS virus in Africa threatens to reduce life expectancy in some countries and Russia has experienced a decline in life expectancy. Nonetheless, globally life expectancy is on the rise.

It is easy to understand how life expectancy increases with improved environmental factors and greater medical knowledge. However, it is also possible to conceive how progress might lead to increase war deaths over time. The US Civil War marked perhaps the beginning of the application of mechanization to the art of war. Although in the Civil War, like previous wars, disease killed more than enemy action, both sides managed to kill a total of over 200,000 people in action. The same science and technology that helps improve life expectancy has made humans more effective and efficient killers. This skill, in principle, could put downward pressure on life expectancy.

One might anticipate an association between population density and increased chances for conflict. As the world population increases, there is more opportunity for friction and conflict and dispute over resources. Fortunately, it seems that, the likelihood of being kill in war is at least stable. The only exceptions are World Wars I and II, when failed political systems collided with human ingenuity and managed to accumulate a death total of over 25,000,000 people. The Peace Science Society International at Pennsylvania State University, whose stated institutional goal is to “encourage the development of peace analysis and conflict management,” has accumulated statistics on inter-state war casualties over time.

Coupling these data with world population information, we can plot per capita war deaths as a function of time, as shown below. The data are averaged over ten year-increments to reduce statistical fluctuations. The values on the vertical axis represent the likelihood of death within a ten-year period. It is clear, that despite increases in population density, an increased capacity to wage war, and except for the World Wars, the likelihood of a human dying in war has remained relatively constant. During the decade encompassing World War II, there was a 1 in 121 chance of becoming a war causalty. Typically, over the last century this probability has been less than 1 in 3000.

Ironically, increased military technology may be responsible for the stability in war deaths. Nuclear deterrence in large measure prevented direct conflict between the Soviet Union and the US during the Cold War. In the present conflict between the US and forces in Afghanistan and in the recent conflict in Kosovo, high technology has permitted the direct application of force with minimum unintended collateral damage. If World War II technology had been applied in either conflict the number of both civilian and military deaths would have been much higher. Conservatives are congenitally disinclined to optimism. However, perhaps the relatively constant per capita rate of war deaths, despite the improved ability to wage war, is a cause for such optimism.

Unfortunately, while inter-state war deaths may be stable, the same may not be true of intra-state genocide. Genocides in the manner of Cambodia in the 1970s and Rwanda in the 1990s may be increasing. Indeed, the Jewish Holocaust in Germany is lumped in the totals for World War II, but might more accurately be categorized as internal genocide. In a world that tends to respect the boundaries of sovereignty, the opportunity for local tyrannies to run amok remains.

Celsius 233

Sunday, December 23rd, 2001

It is more than a little unfair to reach back and judge a science fiction novel armed with the perspective of almost half-a-century. Tough, life is rarely fair. In 1953, Ray Bradbury published one of his most famous novels, Fahrenheit 451. Bradbury’s view of the future was radically wrong, except in two important ways.

The fundamental theme of the book is censorship in the not too distant future. Books are outlawed and in Bradbury’s world the role of firemen is not to prevent fires but to incinerate books. Firemen implement the censorship by rushing, sirens screeching, to houses where books are secretly hidden; piling the books up on the front lawns; igniting the piles; and watching as the pages crumble to ashes. Whole houses are sometimes burned to make sure that no books escape detection. The title refers to the temperature at which paper spontaneously bursts into flames.

The protagonist, Guy Montag, is a fireman who develops a conscience. On one book burning expedition, a woman decides to sit with her books while flames consume them all. Montag wonders what could be so important about books that someone would elect to die for them. This, and conversations with an insightful teenage girl next-door, convince Montag to steal books during a book-burning episode and actually read them. This decision radically redirects Montag’s future, eventually pitting him against the forces of censorship.

The modern reader is, of course, struck by many incongruities between the Bradbury’s future and the one that we know. Smoking is popular, cars fly down the road at incredible speeds unobstructed by traffic jams, most women stay at home while their husbands go to work, and nuclear war is relatively common. These are the sorts of simple extrapolations one might have glibly made in the early 1950s. Simple extrapolations of social or even technological trends are rarely correct. There are too many feedback mechanisms.

However, Bradbury accurately foresaw two important cultural phenomena. First, even over fifty years, we would not be able to switch away from the Fahrenheit to Celsius temperature scales. People, at least in the United States, still think in terms of Fahrenheit; and given American stubbornness, this is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. One might have expected a future switch to a more rational temperature scale. The book could have been named Celsius 233.

More importantly, Bradbury accurately foresaw that many will be distracted beyond consciousness by trifling activities. Some are totally occupied, but not active; busy while accomplishing anything. The rapid increase of mind-occupying distractions keeps people from reading and serious thought. The action on Bradbury’s wall-sized televisions substitute for lived lives, much a present day video games become addictive and time consuming. People are pummeled with so much visual and audio information or useless data, that it is impossible to sort out ideas.

As Bradbury explains:

“Cram people `full of noncombustible, data,’ the fire captain explains. Chock them so damn full of `facts’ they feel stuffed, but absolutely brilliant with information. Then they’ll feel they’re thinking, they’ll get a sense of motion without moving.”

Bradbury believes as people are weaned from the disciplines of attention, thought, and patience required to read, that books would first loose currency and ultimately be thought dangerous and banned. In truth, if a society grows so preoccupied that it avoids the serious questions posed by serious books, there would probably be little reason to bother outlawing books. They would fall into disuse spontaneously.

If the popularity of Amazon.com is any indication, despite the growth in distractions, there still seems to be enough time for reading books; well, at least for buying them.

It may have been unfair to judge Fahrenheit 451 too harshly, but unlike many novels, people still read it half-a-century later. This alone should be sufficient consolation to Bradbury.

The Road to Serfdom

Sunday, December 16th, 2001

At the end of the last century, the publishers at Random House constructed a list of the 100 best novels and 100 best non-fiction works of the twentieth century. The non-fiction list was particularly instructive. Actually, there were two lists. One list represented the consensus of a blue ribbon panel with many notables including Daniel J. Boorstin, Shelby Foote, Stephen Jay Gould, Arthur Schlesinger, Jr, and. Gore Vidal. The other list was the result of a poll of 194,829 readers. Admittedly any such public poll is self-selected and likely to reflect strength of opinion rather than breath of consensus. Nonetheless, it is instructive that Ayn Rand, the laissez-faire economist and novelist, had three books of the top six books in the reader list and, yet, did not even make the top 100 selections of the blue-ribbon panel. A little further down the reader list at number 16 was Friedrich A. Hayek’s, The Road to Serfdom. The Austrian economist also did not make it in the top 100 of the blue-ribbon list. This is quite a shame since Hayek’s book ought to be required reading for any educated person.

The modern Conservative reader may miss Hayek’s originality and innovation because much of what he presented in the relatively short The Road to Serfdom is now part of the conventional wisdom of Conservatives, especially free-market Conservatives. The fact that the ideas do not seem surprising or remarkable is a measure of how thoroughly the ideas in his book have been felt. Indeed, much of his warnings against the effects of central planning were borne out by the Communist experience in the last half of the twentieth century. Nonetheless, when the book was written in 1943, memories of the Great Depression, what was then considered a massive failure of free markets, still dominated economic thought and an unplanned economy seemed dangerous. Centrally directed economies appeared to be an inevitable next step in the evolution of industrial societies.

Hayek’s argument focused less on the economic efficiency of markets, and more on the nature of freedom. Hayek is the champion of individualism over collectivism. Central planning must necessarily limit the scope of freedom. A key Hayek observation is that central planning reverses the centuries old trend toward the rule of law against arbitrary authority. Moreover, in collectivist societies the worst elements inevitably rise to the top. As political power rather than market competition decides success and failure, political power rather than economic superiority becomes the goal.

Hayek is no Ayn Rand absolutist. He freely acknowledges the need for society to act collectively to provide a minimum level of subsistence for those incapable of providing for themselves. Hayek believes in competitive markets so much that he sees the need for government to limit monopoly market power when necessary. He, however, does not want the government to become that monopoly.

Perhaps Hayek’s most enlightening contribution is his analysis of the rise of the Nazi political movement in Germany. To many, Socialism and Fascism represent opposite poles in the political spectrum. Since Socialism has typically had an internationalist sympathy and Fascism emphasizes nationalism, they were thought to be radically different.

However, the National Socialists of Germany did not self-identify themselves as Socialists merely to borrow the cachet of an intellectually popular political movement. Hayek, who personally experienced the rise of National Socialism between the wars, traces the intellectual history of Fascism in Germany from Marxists Werner Sombart and Johann Plenge. They saw the necessity for economic organization and planning rather than markets as necessary for German resurgence after the humiliation of World War I. Indeed, the “patron saint of National Socialism,” Moeller van den Bruck, considered National Socialism as the vanguard in the “fight against capitalism.” According to Hayek, “van den Bruck’s Third Reich was intended to give Germans a socialism adapted to their nature and undefiled by Western liberal [read libertarian – FMM] ideals.”

Read by a modern reader, the most important contribution of The Road to Serfdom is its identification of Fascism as Super-Socialism. At their core, Socialism and Fascism are the two Rottweilers from the same litter, regardless of their superficial differences. To the extent that it is necessary to recognize the threats to individual liberty to defend against them, The Road to Serfdom is required reading. Perhaps if some on the Left were to recognize the intellectual affinity between Socialism and Fascism they might be a little more sympathetic to Conservative concerns about collectivism. When individual rights are subordinated to collective goals, tyranny is the danger.

Renewed Empathy for Israel

Sunday, December 9th, 2001

Israel is an unlikely state. It was formed by the return of the Jewish people into an inhospitable land after centuries of the Jewish Diaspora. The Ottoman Empire had ruled Palestine from the sixteenth century. After World War I, the League of Nations made the area a protected mandate under British control. Improvidently, the British had made conflicting commitments about the future of Palestine. In return for help against the Ottomans in World War I, the British promised statehood to the Arabs. In return for Jewish support, the British in the Balfour Declaration promised at national Jewish homeland. After World War II, the weary British gave up and tossed the problem into the lap of the United Nations. Attempting to forge a compromise, the United Nations in 1947 divided Palestine into Jewish and Arab areas, essentially present-day Israel and Jordan. On May 14, 1948, Israel declared its independence and the formal creation of the Israeli state. The surrounding Arab nations attacked, but were rebuffed in the Israeli War for Independence.

That was more than 50 years ago and the problems have lingered largely because of a persistent refugee problem. There are conflicting estimates as to the number of Arabs who fled Israel after the country declared independence. The numbers are less than 1 million, but certainly more than 500,000. A roughly corresponding number of Jews in Arab nations fled to Israel and Israel’s Jewish population swelled as European and other Jews from the West migrated to Israel.

The popular mythology of the Palestinian Arabs is that Arabs fled because they feared persecution by the Israelis. Israelis claim that Arab leaders urged fellow Arabs to leave to make it easier to exterminate the Jewish state. Whether or not the Palestinians should have believed the promises made by Israeli Prime Minister David Ben Gurion, that Arabs in Israel would be granted full citizenship if they remained in Israel, the fact is they did not and fled Israel.

Jewish refugees that fled to Israel from other nations were welcomed as brothers and sisters and assimilated into the fledging state. Indeed, they have become the backbone of modern Israel. By contrast, surrounding Arab nations did not accommodate Palestinian Arab refugees. They were, instead, deliberatedly concentrated into refugee camps where their anger was allowed to fester.

In yet another attempt to seize the land of Israel, the Arabs initiated a new war in 1967. The war lasted six days, after which the Israel controlled the West Bank of the Jordan, the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. Through years of negotiation, Israel has gradually relinquished land back to the Arabs in the hopes of purchasing peace with land. Of course, the tragic irony is that if there had been no 1967 War, if the Arabs had accepted their half of the Palestine mandate, Israel never would have controlled the land occupied after the Six-Day War (or Jerusalem) and the Arab Palestinians would be negotiating with Jordan for the creation of a separate Palestinian state.

The price of independence and freedom for Jews in Israel has been to live in constant fear of war and suffering under scourge of deliberate terrorism. The Palestinian Authority encourages in its Arabic broadcasts and publications anti-Semitism and argues not for accommodation with Israel, but the destruction of the Jewish state. The real question is not whether Israel can accept an independent Palestinian state, but whether Palestinians are prepared accept the Jewish state.

The American response after years of duplicity on the part of Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian leadership, is to pressure Israel to be accommodating, to not respond to terrorist acts against civilians, and to stop “the cycle of violence.” All this, despite the fact that last year, Israel offered the Palestinian authority as much as it could hope for: control of the area outside of Israel proper and even partial control of Jerusalem. The Palestinian response was not a counter offer but increased civil unrest and terrorist attacks directed at civilians.

The attacks on the United States on September 11 made Americans victims of the same terrorist extremism and may have changed American attitudes and created empathy on the part of Americans to the predicament of the Israelis. In recent weeks, the Palestinian terrorist groups have initiated a number of devastating suicide bombings in Israel. In proportion to their relative populations, it would be as if the United State had lost 2000 civilians in terrorist attacks.

The United States has recognized the moral imperative of dealing with terrorism and states that protect and sponsor them. The United States could not very well initiate military operations to topple the Taliban government that sponsors anti-American attacks and not grant Israel the same right of self-defense. Rather than continual pleas for restraint to Israel not to respond, White House Spokesman Ari Fleischer said, “Israel is a sovereign government. Israel has a right to live in security.” It is amazing how such an obvious statement has come to seem remarkable.

References


Frank Monaldo — Please e-mail comments to frank@monaldo.net

This page last updated on: 11/04/2002 21:04:22

Excessive Solicitousness

Sunday, December 2nd, 2001

Montgomery County, MD abuts the northwest corner of Washington, DC and it is one of the wealthiest counties in the country. The county resembles Garrison Keillor’s Lake Wobegon, “where the women are strong, the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average.” The county has no transit troubles and the average commute is a five-minute stroll from the front porch. There are no drug problems, no spousal abuse, no homelessness, and no poverty. Indeed the problems that plague other jurisdictions do not exist and the poor county council struggles to find problems to address. What else can explain the recent events in the county?

A couple of weeks ago, the county council passed legislation that drew national attention. The county would make it punishable by a fine if a person smoking in his own home annoyed a neighbor. There were no quantitative restrictions on the level of particulates that could permissibly escape from one property to another. Annoyance was the criteria.

After national ridicule, the county executive, after initially supporting the legislation, vetoed it. It became clear that the law would just become one more tool that squabbling neighbors could brandish against one another. Perhaps the clincher was the argument that since minorities smoke at higher rates, they would be disproportionately affected by the new regulation.

Just when that commotion started to die down, Kensington, MD, a town in Montgomery County, dispensed with the services of Santa Claus in lighting a holiday tree. A couple of people had perennially claimed that Santa was a religious symbol that should not appear at a publicly sponsored event. They finally had their way. The First Amendment argument against Santa had no merit. Even the legal director of the American Civil Liberties Union, Arthur Spitzer, conceded that he doubts that “a court would tell Kensington they could not have Santa Claus.”

Fear not, Kensington, there will be a Santa Claus. Santa will be there, as Francis Church would say “as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist [1].” Whether or not Kensington will have an official Santa, throngs of locals have vowed to show up dressed in Santa costumes, demonstrating that common sense has not entirely fled the county. Indeed, the whole commotion has guaranteed that even more attention will be devoted to Santa at this year’s celebration.

These two events are bound by the common thread of excessive solicitousness to vocal minorities intent on bullying the majority. In the case of Montgomery County, the issues were relatively minor and squelched by the ridicule they deserved.

What happened recently a country away was far worse. At Orange Coast College in California, Political Science Professor Kenneth Hearlson was suspended without a hearing and told not to return to campus, after several Muslim students complained Hearlson had called them personally “terrorists,” “Nazis,” and “murderers.”

The knee-jerk reaction of the college again was excessive solicitousness. Hearlson was punished summarily and the validity of the complaints was accepted without question. Fortunately for Hearlson, a couple of students taped the September-18 class. The transcript clearly shows that Hearlson criticized some Muslim leaders for not speaking out against the September 11 attack on the US, but he went out of his way to point out that not all Muslims are responsible for the events of September 11.

Despite the transcript, Orange Coast College President Margaret Gratton, as of the end of November, had not reinstated Hearlson or issued a formal apology to him. The students who made the demonstrably false and malicious allegations have not been punished. Mooath Saidi, one of Hearlson’s accusers, when confronted with the transcript, argued, “…if some of the allegations I made were not maybe right, if my memory was shady, this is not the first time anybody brought anything against this teacher… [Hearlson] has a history, and he obviously hasn’t learned and he needs to be taught a lesson. [2]”

Chilling.

  1. Church, Francis P., “Yes, Virginia, There is a Santa Claus,” Editorial Page, New York Sun, 1897.
  2. Schemo, Diana Jean, “New Battle in Old War Over Freedom of Speech,” N.Y. Times, November 25, 2001.