Archive for the ‘Social Commentary’ Category

Letting Standards Fall

Sunday, May 5th, 2002

One bit of conventional wisdom holds that an academic degree from Harvard is a ticket to a life of affluence and ease. Regardless of the accuracy of that observation, it appears that admission to Harvard as an undergraduate is now virtually a guarantee of excellent grades. Students overwhelmingly accumulate A’s and B’s and a remarkable 90% graduate with honors. The honors citation has increasingly become a way to identify the few poor students who don’t receive honors rather than a means to focus particular tribute upon outstanding students.

Patrick Healy of the Boston Globe, interviewed Trevor Cox in his senior year at Harvard. Only in his last year was Cox finally challenged by the work on his senior thesis. Cox explained, “I’ve coasted on far higher grades than I deserve… It’s scandalous. You can get very good grades, and earn honors, without ever producing quality work.”

A few professors at Harvard have attempted to maintain an island of integrity in the on rushing torrent of easy A’s. Professor Harvey C. (“C-minus”) Mansfield, who teaches Government 1061, was a notoriously hard grader in comparison to his colleagues. Actually, his grading policy had remained constant over time while policies had loosened around him. Students were torn. If they took Mansfield’s course, they might be challenged but only at the cost of hurting themselves in the class rank competition among other students.

In an effort to strike a compromise, Mansfield now awards two grades. The official grade for the transcript is in keeping with the easy grading policies of his colleagues. The second grade tells students what they truly deserve. For the official record, only 27% of his students received a B or lower. The overwhelming majority were awarded a B-plus or above. For the second grade, only 15% of his students earned a grade higher than a B.

There are many reasons for grade inflation in academia, particularly at Ivy League schools. Part of it began during the Vietnam era when high grades helped students remain in school and retain an academic deferment from the draft. Interestingly, the largest jump in grades occurred when the average SAT scores dropped.

In 1969, Harvard made a bold effort to admit additional minority students. The African-American enrollment in the freshman class doubled from 60 to 120. SAT scores for entering freshman dropped, yet the fraction of grades of B or higher increased 10%. Not only were professors making allowances for a new set of less academically prepared students, out of fairness, they made it easier for other students as well.

The University of California system is preparing to embark on a similar reduction of standards in the service of attempts to change the demographics of enrollment. Richard Atkinson, the president of the university system, released a report arguing that the SAT tests should no longer be required for admission.

Atkinson frets that when he visited a private school he observed, “students studying verbal analogies in anticipation of the SAT.” Some observers might be heartened by diligent students improving their verbal skills. Atkinson, who is more astute in these matters than most of us, concluded, “America’s overemphasis on the SAT is compromising our educational system.” Obviously, we must free students from the oppressive yoke of verbal analogies.

How about this for a verbal analogy? Atkinson is to academic excellence, what rust is to metal. Atkinson is a corrosive force that if left unchecked can undermine the academic integrity of the University of California system.

There really are two not-so-attractive reasons for eliminating SAT scores as a requirement. The first is to allow the University of California school system to make admissions decisions based on skin color and ethnic background without the interference of academic preparedness as an inconvenient constraint. Ironically, the second reason some schools have eliminated SAT’s as an academic requirement is to increase the apparent (though not actual) academic selectiveness of the university. When SAT’s are optional, the better students tend to be the only ones who submit them. The average SAT scores (among those reporting, of course) will increase. When various college ranking services rank colleges by the SAT scores of incoming freshman, schools that eliminate SAT’s as a requirement are at an advantage. Dickinson College reportedly had a 60-point increase in the average SAT score of incoming freshman when the test was made optional.

The truth is that Atkinson of the University of California and Harvard University need to recognize that no amount of fudging the results of the educational process at the tail end is sufficient. Indeed, such efforts are probably counterproductive. There is a real and urgent problem with educational opportunity for minority students. The sooner we grant such students the means to escape failed public school systems, the sooner the University of California system, Harvard University, and other schools can return to the celebration of academic excellence rather than avoiding its consequences.

References:

  • Healy, Patrick,“Harvard’s Quiet Secret: Rampant Grade Inflation,” Boston Globe, October 27, 2001.
  • Arkin-Gallagher, Anna, “California SAT Decision Sparks Controversy,” The Yale Hearld, May 3, 2002.

Pondering the Infinite

Sunday, April 28th, 2002

Pondering the infinite is an activity usually relegated to undergraduate philosophy students, particularly in their sophomore year. Physicists often spend their time reducing physical phenomena that are for all practical purposes, like the size of the universe, infinite to comprehensible descriptions. Mathematicians are perhaps the most facile in dealing with and manipulating concepts of infinity. For a mathematician, it is a simple matter to specify a mathematical surface that is infinite in area, but encloses a finite volume. In other words, mathematicians can conceive of a shape that one could fill with paint, but not paint. It is not until recently, that people in computer sciences have considered quantities and qualities, which if formally finite, may prove to be practically infinite.

In 1965, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, extrapolated from the fact that the number of transistors on a integrated circuit grew from one in 1959, to 32 in 1964, to 64 in 1965 that transistor density was doubling every 18 to 24 months. This is the narrow statement of Moore’s Law. The more general statement of Moore’s Law is that computer computing power doubles every 18 to 24 months.

The latter formulation of Moore’s law has been given more depth by MIT-educated computer scientist, entrepreneur and writer Ray Kurzweil. He has tracked back the growth of computer power from electromagnetic punch card calculators used in the 1890 census to Pentium 4 processors that have 42 million transistors. Kurzweil foresees accelerating increases in computer power past physical limits of silicon-based devices as manufactures employ more exotic bio-chemical technologies.

Much thought has been given to whether Moore’s Law can really exceed limits posed by silicon-based technology and the ever-increasing capital costs required to construct chip-manufacturing plants. Additional consideration has been given as to what this increased computer power can be used for. Kurzweil is not shy about predicting a future with machines that are more intelligent than humans and computer implants interfaced to human minds. While increases in computer capacity has proven to be more persistent in time that anyone has a right to expect, predictions about the future abilities of artificial intelligence have a notorious record of over optimism.

What has not received much thought is the rapid increase in data storage. Writing in American Scientist, Brian Hayes explains how recent changes in technology are actually increasing rate of growth is disk storage. A large disk on a personal computer is about 120 GBytes. Technologies in the laboratory presently achieve storage densities equivalent to disks with 400 GBytes of storage.

At the present rate of increase, personal computer disks will reach 120 Terabytes (120,000 GBytes) in size in ten years. Even if the growth rate decreases by 60 percent, the 120 TByte level will be reached in 15 years. What are we to do with this storage capability? Is natural American acquisitiveness sufficiently great to use of this space.

Recently MP3 digtial music files have been filling disks, especially in college dorms. However, as Hayes points out, if you put enough music to listen to different songs 24 hours a day for an 80 year lifetime you barely fill a third of a 120 TByte disk disk. Even this assumes that storage technology would remain fixed over the 80-year lifetime.

Digital photographs are a new source of data filling up disks. Assuming each such photograph require 1 MByte of storage and assuming a itchy shutter finger producing 100 photographs a day — certainly a well-documented life — less than 3% of the 120 TBytes would be filled.

Fundamentally, storage of video is the only data source likely to fill 120 Tbyte disks. Even so, with growth beyond 120 TBytes over our lifetimes, we likely face the prospect of being able to store more data than we have. It is roughly comparable to having an attic that is growing so fast that we cannot fill it fast enough.

It seems that if we are having problems filling up new disks over a lifetime, the only solution is to increase lifetimes.

  • Fixmer, Rob, “Internet Insight, Moore’s Law and Order,” Eweek, April 15, 2002.
  • Hayes, Brian, “Terabyte Territory,” American Scientist, 90, 212-216, May-June, 2002.

Bourgeoisophobia

Sunday, April 21st, 2002

The word and suffix “phobia” derives from the Latin word phobos for fear. In psychiatry, a phobia refers to any irrational fear. [1] Arachnophobia is the irrational fear of spiders. People who fear heights suffer from acrophobia. People who post at political web sites obviously do not suffer from doxophobia or fear of expressing opinions. Recently, a secondary meaning of phobia has fallen into a too common usage. The new definition of phobia includes not only fear, but also aversion and hate. For example, homophobia has come to mean hate of homosexuals, not just fear of the same. Actually there is a double intended meaning here. Certain activists for homosexuals would like people to believe the aversion to homosexuals is borne of a phobia about personal sexuality. There is no use arguing about the new usage of phobia. Changes in usage happen in living languages.

In a recent article in the Weekly Standard, David Brooks argues that we are encountering a new phobia, a phobia characterized more by hatred than by fear. According to Brooks, this “Bourgeoisophobia” explains why European and Arabs have come to hate America and Israel. [2] Brooks recently wrote Bobos in Paradise on how a unique combination of bourgeois and bohemian values and attitudes characterize the new upper class in America. He has thus spent considerable time studying the history and evolution of bourgeois values.

According to Brooks, the attitude of Islamic fundamentalists iseasy to understand. They hate the values of the “meritocratic capitalist society.” They hate highly commercial cultures and what they are based on: individual liberty for the masses, even women. They hate what free cultures produce: everything from popular music to videos. Most of all, Islamic fundamentalists are “inflamed” by “humiliation.” In the 1960’s and 1970’s, some Arab societies attempted to embrace a modern economy, but wouldn’t allow their cultures to adapt. The lingering and unhappy residue of these attempts is a sense of failure and anger. America represents the West with its bourgeois values and Israel is the foothold of the West in the Middle East. Hence, they both evoke a particular animus.

Europeans both love and hate America. The love American popular culture, while showing a distaste for the idea of American exceptionalism. Europeans embrace bourgeois values at least as much as Americans. How then can Bourgeoisophobia explain European anger with the United States? Part of it is a little jealously of American economic success. Some Europeans view Americans as many of us might view a rich uncle who wears checked suits, sports a $5 haircut, and became wealthy by selling brightly colored Cadillacs. We have to acknowledge the monetary success even while our sense of fairness and justice is assaulted because of our conviction that the uncle is our moral and intellectual inferior. Even worse, unlike the uncle, to Europeans Americans possess a blithe, casual, and infuriating certainty in their own goodness.

As Brooks explains:

“No European would ever acknowledge the category, but America and Israel are heroic bourgeois nations. The Israelis are driven by passionate Zionism to build their homeland and make it rich and powerful. Americans are driven by our Puritan sense of calling, the deeply held belief that Americans have a special mission to spread our way of life around the globe. It is precisely this heroic element of ordinary life that Europeans lack and distrust.”

Once Europeans thought themselves to be the economic, cultural, military leaders of the world. Europe had a colonial empire that extended around the globe. Two world wars and their aftermath splintered off what was left of European colonial holdings while dissipating European self-confidence. American hubris reminds them of what they once were and can be no longer. Retaining a sense of moral superiority by creating the myth of the unsophisticated American cowboy blustering unthinking into the world acts as a mild analgesic to European frustration at self-imposed impotence.

  1. On-line list of Phobias.
  2. Brooks, David, “Among the Bourgeoisophobes,” The Weekly Standard, 20-72, April 15, 2002.

World Opinion of Israel

Sunday, April 14th, 2002

It was early in the afternoon on June 7, 1981, when F-15’s and F-16’s of the Israeli Air Force lumbered with their heavy loads of weapons and extra fuel tanks into the sky above Etzion Air Force Base in the Sinai Peninsula. Now over twenty years later, the base has been turned over, by agreement, to the Egyptians. Nonetheless, on that day, the planes leaving Etzion changed the world dramatically. The Israeli planes managed to elude radar and Jordanian, Saudi and Iraqi air patrols at they flew over 600 miles at low level through Arab territory to the Osirak nuclear reactor near Bagdad, Iraq. Two hours after their mission began and in less than two minutes, the planes delivered their ordinance on the dome of the reactor. The Israelis managed to destroy the reactor before it was loaded with nuclear fuel and went hot. It is very likely that that single act kept nuclear weapons out of the hands of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. If Hussein had such weapons, the Iranian-Iraqi War and the Gulf War to liberate Kuwait could have been radically different with far more loss of life. Hussein has shown little reluctance in using chemical weapons. There is little reason to believe that he would exhibit much more continence with regard to nuclear weapons.

The Iraqi reactor was built under contract by the French who argued that under their supervision nuclear material that could be used for bomb construction would be difficult to smuggle from the reactor. It is impossible to know for a certainty whether French supervision would have been effective, but more recent international supervision of Iraq with regard to weapons of mass destruction has not been successful. Add this fact to the 1975 remark by Saddam Hussein that getting a reactor would represent “the first Arab attempt at nuclear arming” and it is easy to appreciate the importance of the bold Israeli action.

Rather than expressing gratitude for disarming a dictator, the world reacted with universal, brutal, and severe criticism. The ever-predictable New York Times characterized “Israel’s sneak attack” as an “inexcusable and short-sighted aggression.” United States Senator Mark Hatfield described the destruction of the reactor as “provocative, ill-timed, and internationally illegal.” What time would Hatfield have suggested would have been better to destroy the reactor? Even the Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher, who one might have hoped would have known better, thought the attack was unjustified and that it represented “a grave breach of international law.”

The wise ambassadors in the United Nations Security Council unanimously (that means the US joined in) adopted resolution 487 which “Strongly condemns military attacks by Israel in clear violation of the Charter of the United Nations and the norms of international conduct.”

Now Israel suffers international condemnation for its efforts to stop terrorist attacks on its citizens by attempting to root out terrorists in the West Bank. The condemnation is virtually universal. It does not follow logically that just because the entire world was radically wrong with respect to Israel twenty years ago that the world is again in error, but the precedent it there.

Despite the fact that the Palestinian Authority led by Yasser Arafat, in direct violation of the Oslo accords, was arranging for massive arms shipments from Iran, Hanna Kvanno of the Nobel Peace Prize committee wished it where possible to recall the prize from Shimon Peres who shared the 1994 Peace Prize with Arafat. Peres is currently Israel’s Foreign Minister. There was no similar expressed desire to recall the prize from Arafat. Despite the fact that evidence has appeared directly linking Yasser Arafat with financing homicide bombers who deliberately kill as many civilians as possible and the fact that Arafat rejoiced at the bombing of a Jewish celebration, the Belgians are considering indictment of Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as a war criminal. Given the uncalibrated ethical barometer of much of the world, reticence in the use of world opinion a moral standard is justified.

The West and the Rest – A Race

Sunday, April 7th, 2002

There is something of a global, political, economic, and demographic race on. On one side, we have Western and Western-class countries with their open and transparent societies, ethos of tolerance, respect for individual liberties, adherence to the rule of law, and robust economies. On the other side, are various authoritarian countries, that use ideology or religion as a yoke to control their populations. In terms of wealth, growth, and technological leadership, there is a large gulf between the West and the rest.

However, the fertility rates of Western and Western-class countries are rapidly decreasing. In countries like Italy and Spain fertility is far far less than what is required for replacement. In Western Europe, the fertility rate is about a third less than required for replacement. Residents of the United States are not producing children at a rate necessary for replacement. Were it not for immigration, the population of the United States would be decreasing. Though there are a few countries like China that have used Draconian methods to limit population growth and others that match high birth rates with an AIDS epidemic so pervasive that there is the threat of population decreases, the population in developing countries is growing far more rapidly than in developed countries. Even with an expected drop-off in the fertility in developing countries, the ratio of people living there to those in developed countries will significantly increase this century.

It does not take much of an imagination to realize that unsuccessful leaders in developing countries will find the West convenient targets for demagoguery. The assertion that “We are poor, because the West is rich,” has a saliency in the developing world and insolates local repressive leaders from accountability. Unless developing countries can be rapidly integrated into the world economy and unless living standards begin to approach those of the West, there is a strong potential for political instability and increased terrorism. The race is whether these developing countries can achieve some level of economic prosperity before the developed and undeveloped worlds come into more conflict.

The Middle East, particularly the situation between the Israelis and the Palestinians, is an extreme example of this phenomenon. While Israel is a relatively affluent country, it floats in a sea of despair and economic stagnation. Much of this economic stagnation is a consequence of the authoritarian rule by Palestinian leaders, pervasive corruption, and a consequence of the devotion resources to arms and security as opposed to economic development. This economic despair combined with a culture of misogyny causes birth rates that are so high that it is difficult for any economic development to keep pace. In the West Bank, the Palestinian fertility rate is 5.8 children per woman in a lifetime, far in excess of the 2.1 replacement rate. In the Gaza Strip the rate is an astounding 7.8. It is small wonder that life has become so worthless, that suicide bombers seem to be a renewable resource.

The best foreseeable near-term outcome for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is some sort of agreement where Palestinian leadership, not intent on the destruction of Israel, agrees to live with borders roughly corresponding to the 1967 borders between Jordan and Israel. Even given such an outcome, unless there is very rapid economic development on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the world will be faced with an Israel of modest population density, bordered by high population density areas of relative poverty. No political accommodation can withstand this extreme level of economic disparity. Any honest armistice between the Palestinians and Israelis must be accompanied by intensive economic development. Unfortunately, hopes for the necessary cultural and economic changes are probably more desperate for than those for political change in Palestinian-controlled areas. Without political peace, adoption of a Western economic model, and perhaps massive economic aid to the area, one lap of the world race will likely be lost here.

Preserve – Protect – Defend the Constitution

Sunday, March 31st, 2002

George W. Bush is an unlikely president. Despite the fact that his father was President, for much of his life, any of George W.’s aspirations to become president were only very latent. By contrast, Senator Albert Gore groomed his son Al for the Presidency from the moment of the younger Gore’s birth. Though President Bill Clinton’s beginnings were far humbler, he seems to have absorbed his presidential ambitions from his mother’s milk.

By all conventional calculation, Al Gore should have won the last presidential election. Political scientists have tried to build models that predict presidential outcomes based on economic factors. Using at least one popular version of these models, Al Gore should have bowled over Bush with 56.2% of the vote.

One important reason for Gore’s historically unprecedented defeat was the country’s rejection of Clinton’s politics of duplicity. The economy was in excellent shape, but Clinton lacked moral seriousness. Vice-President Al Gore, who up until his association with Clinton was considered to be something of a boring Boy Scout, was burdened with the frivolousness of the President and none of the accomplishments of the Clinton Administration.

In short, Bush was elected as an adult who would rescue the country from the fraternity house ethics of the previous administration. Bush is not a policy wonk who focuses on the details of policy implementation. Bush is not a gifted speaker who can routinely mesmerize an audience. Bush’s one quality is authenticity. He is serious, with a few core principles he adheres too. This is precisely why Bush signing the campaign finance reform bill was so uncharacteristic and so disappointing.

A president takes a solemn oath. He vows, to the “best of his ability,” to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.” Before his election, Bush said in an interview that a campaign finance bill that prohibited certain types of speech is unconstitutional and he would veto it. Even while signing this bill, Bush acknowledged that portions maybe unconstitutional.

There are certainly political advantages for Bush to sign the campaign finance reform bill. If he refused to sign, Democrats would use it as a campaign issue, arguing that Republicans want to retain campaign contributions from corporations.

Since Democrats have been most vocal in favor of this campaign finance reform bill, it ironic the law will help Bush in his re-election campaign. Republicans are adept at raising “hard” money — money donated directly to the candidates as opposed to the party. The law raises the maximum personal hard-money donation from $1000 to $2000. If a candidate does not accept federal matching funds, then there is no limit on spending. It is likely that Bush in 2004 will be able raise far more than his Democratic counterpart even without matching funds. Couple this with the fact that a potential Democratic challenger will likely have had to fend off other Democratic aspirants to win the nomination, and Bush may have twice as much money to spend as his opponent.

It is perhaps not surprising that a bill written by incumbents, passed by incumbents, and signed by an incumbent president is advantageous to incumbents.

Compromise is part of politics. Presidents have to sometimes settle for half of what they want here, three-quarters of what they would prefer there. Rarely do presidents have the full wind of political support to their backs. They must constantly tack against the winds of opposition toward their goals. No one should expect or want a rigorous consistency from a politician. Nonetheless, there are issues on which no compromise should be accepted. A president has a solemn obligation to defend the Constitution. There can be no higher obligation. In this case, Bush failed to meet it and nobody very much cares. If an 80-plus-percent approval president will not use political capital to defend the Constitution, what will he use it for?

Fall from Grace

Saturday, March 23rd, 2002

Tt is especially depressing and disheartening when people of intelligence, quality, and substance make unaccountably foolish mistakes or serious errors in judgment. Those of us involved in more ordinary and less conspicuous pursuits have our values reinforced and validated when people of character live up to our common ideals. When respectable people are flawed, it, unfortunately, has the unwanted side effect of making it easier to excuse our own lapses. The responsibility incumbent on famous people is an insidious burden. It is with great sadness that we consider the sad lapses of three such people.

Stephen Ambrose is perhaps best know for his books about the World War II. Citizen Soldiers, Band of Brothers, and The Wild Blue: The Men and Boys Who Flew the B-24s over Germany are probably the most well known. Unlike many other historians of the war, Ambrose focuses his formidable narrative skills to describing the intelligence and heroism of the soldiers and airmen who actually fought in the war rather than on the strategies of generals. This has made him popular among veterans and the experience of the war more accessible to the lay reader.

Ambrose’s gifts are not limited to World War II. Ambrose used to take students on summer trips following the path of Lewis and Clark. The experience helps account for the insight and readability of the Undaunted Courage: Meriwether Lewis, Thomas Jefferson, and the Opening of the American West.

Unfortunately in recent years, Ambrose may have rushed too quickly to push books into print. His book Nothing Like It in the World: The Men Who Built the Transcontinental Railroad 1863-1869 suffered from repetitiveness and just plain poor editing. Even worse, Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard reported that passages from The Wild Blue: The Men and Boys Who Flew the B-24s were almost verbatim excerpts from Wings of Morning, The Story of the Last American Bomber Shot Down Over Germany in WWII by Thomas Childers. The borrowed passages were sentences long and not set off in quotations. Although Childers book was cited there was no indication that the questioned passages came from Childers.

Ambrose is apologetic. He writes on his web page that:

“Recently I have been criticized for improperly attributing other author’s writings in a few of my books. In each case, I footnoted the passage in question, but failed to put some words and sentences into quotation marks. I am sorry for those omissions, and will make relevant changes in all future editions of my books.”

One wonders whether Ambrose would have accepted a similar apology for a paper from graduate student.

Everyone’s favorite Liberal is Pulitzer Prizing winning author Doris Kearns Goodwin. Unlike many dour and grim-faced modern Liberals who whine and sulk about victimhood, Goodwin is a Roosevelt Liberal who wears a ready and happy smile. Her best and most acclaimed book is No Ordinary Time: Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II,. It is a sympathetic treatment of Franklin Roosevelt and Goodwin’s obvious personal hero Eleanor Roosevelt. One could not imagine being around Goodwin without being infected by her smile. Goodwin’s good humor and Liberalism seem to sprout from a genuine concern about others.

Unfortunately, it now turns out that Goodwin has been, at best, very sloppy in her writing. In The Fitzgeralds and the Kennedys: An American Saga, Goodwin borrowed so extensively from Lynn McTaggart’s Kathleen Kennedy: Her Life and Times without appropriate attribution that Goodwin was obliged to destroy unsold copies of her book, reissue another corrected edition of the book, and reach a monetary settlement privately with McTaggart. The Guardian reports that Goodwin stepped down as a Pulitzer Prize judge in the wake of this controversy.

One wishes to be charitable. Under the axiom that it is best not to assume maliciousness when incompetence is a sufficient explanation, it is possible to forgive Ambrose and Goodwin for carelessness born of a pressure to publish what have proved to be monetarily rewarding books. Both have done much to reacquaint Americans with their history. However, what then can we say about Michael Bellesiles, the Pulitzer-prizing winning presidential historian famous for thoughtful and sophisticated commentary on PBS?

In 2000, Michael Bellesiles published Arming America: The Origins of a National Gun Culture. The book examines records of private estates and wills to make the claim the personal firearms were not a common possession during the Revolutionary War Era. This argument contradicts the assertion that the Founders instituted the Second Amendment to protect personal gun ownership. If personal gun ownership was uncommon, the argument goes, the Founders could not have possibly intended the Second Amendment to protect it.

Liberal groups were quick to seize on the import of Bellesiles’s thesis. Bellesiles’s book received supportive reviews. The New Republic loudly praised Bellesiles for his scholarship in disposing of the “influential mythic narrative composed by the contemporary right” of American self-reliance, liberty, and independence protected by a right to bear arms. The book won Bellesiles the Bancroft Prize for history writing.

Unfortunately, Bellesiles’s book does not appear to pass historical muster as a scholarly work. �Others have examined the same probate records he did and have found radically different results. Not only have others not been able to duplicate Bellesiles’s results Bellesiles can’t easily do so either. Apparently his data were collated on legal pads that have since been partially destroyed when, as Bellesiles explains, “the pipes in Emory University’s Bowden Hall burst and flooded the building. ” When confronted with inconsistencies in his book, Bellesiles’s explanations have changed so frequently that Princeton historian, Robert Churchill, lamented that, “Six years after Bellesiles published his findings, those of us engaged in the professional responsibility of evaluating his work are still guessing at the composition of his sample.” [8]

Representatives of Emory University, where Bellesiles is a professor of history, are examining the entire matter. National Review quotes an Emory faculty member as stating that, “A number of [us at Emory] think the questions that have been raised by critics whose motivations are not in any way political, are exceptionally serious.”

Perhaps Bellesiles will ultimately be able to explain his results or at the very least the water will become sufficiently muddied that Bellesiles will be spared further embarrassment. Whatever the truth is about historical levels of gun ownership is a truth that will have to be dealt with by both sides of the gun control issue. � The real disappointment has little to do with Bellesiles’s argument. Rather, the disappointment is that Bellesiles may have allowed passion for an argument to overwhelm fidelity to truth.

Historians should not be attorneys attempting to win a case. � Scholars are expected to not only draw conclusions from their research, but to point out potential weaknesses in their own arguments. �At this point, Bellesiles appears not to have lived up to these standards.

References

  1. AP Report, “Twice Told Tales: Goodwin Admits Improper Credits,” Washington Post, January 23, 2002.
  2. Barnes, Fred, “Copycat,” The Weekly Standard, January 14, 2002.
  3. Bellesiles’s web page at the Organization of American Histories.
  4. Burkeman, Oliver, “Plagiarism Row Topples Pulitzer Judge,” The Guardian, March 6, 2002.
  5. Crader, Bo, “Get Me Rewrite,” The Weekly Standard, February 26, 2002.
  6. Lears, Jackson, “The Shooting Game,” The New Republic, January 22, 2001.
  7. Ringle, Ken, “Stephen Ambrose and the Rights Of Passage,” The Washington Post, January 11, 2002
  8. Seckora, Melissa, “Disarming America, Part II: Why Won’t Michael Bellesiles Seriously Respond to His Critics?” National Review, November 26, 2001.
  9. Skinner, David, “The Historian Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight,” The Weekly Standard, February 15, 2002.
  10. Tschida, Ron, “Plagiarism Scandals Hurting History Profession,” MSNBC, February 22, 2002.

CBS Whistle Blower

Saturday, March 2nd, 2002

“It’s short of soap, so there are lice in the hospitals. It’s short of pantyhose, women’s legs go bare. It’s short of snowsuits, so babies stay home in the winter. Sometimes it is short of cigarettes so millions of people stop smoking, involuntarily. It drives everybody crazy. The problem isn’t communism; no one even talked about communism this week. The problem is shortages.” — John Chancellor of NBC speaking of the Soviet Union, August 21 1991, as cited by Bernard Goldberg in Bias.

The argument for ethnic and racial diversity in newsrooms is one that Liberals are familiar with and adept at explaining. Regardless of good intentions on the part of the dominant racial and ethnic group, the argument goes, different groups bring with them different life experiences and different perspectives on stories and on what stories deserve more or less attention. Setting aside for the moment the question as to whether race and ethnic origin are accurate metrics of perspective, the argument has saliency. One wonders, therefore, why newsrooms to not also make formal and concerted efforts to insure political and ideological diversity in newsrooms.

Assessing the extent of Liberal bias in the major national media is often clouded by :what is meant by, Liberal, Moderate, and Conservative. There is an understandable tendency for everyone to view themselves as balanced, moderate, and near the center of the political spectrum. The recent book Bias by long-time CBS correspondent Bernard Goldberg illustrates this tendency. After Goldberg had written an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal asserting that the national news programs were plagued by a Liberal bias, CBS’s Dan Rather expressed his chagrin to Goldberg that he had published his critique in the Conservative Wall Street Journal. Goldberg pointed out that Rather himself had published op-ed pieces in the New York Times. That was all right, according to Rather, because the New York Times is middle of the road. From Rather’s perspective, the New York Times swims in the middle of the political mainstream. This rather disturbing lack of circumspection and understanding of the American political scene on the part of Rather, goes a long way toward understanding why those in the major media do not believe they are burdened by bias.

During the Senate impeachment trial of President Bill Clinton, Peter Jennings introduced the Senators who would decide the President’s fate. He was careful to identify for his audience Conservative Senators like Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, while Liberal Senators like Barbara Mikulski from Maryland were just Senators. From Jennings perspective Mikulski was mainstream and needed no special notation to inform viewers. While Jennings’s descriptions were accurate, they were misleading because they tended, not matter how inadvertently, to make Republicans appear at the far extreme.

Searches of news databases reveal similar systematic biases in identification. A Nexis search shows that during the Clinton years, critics of the President were referred to as “Clinton-haters” or “Clinton bashers” (subtly suggesting an anti-Clinton psychosis) far more than similar terms were applied to critics of President Ronald Reagan. (See: Milzcik, Eileen, “Nexis Search Finds Few Bush or Reagan,” Suite101.com, published September 1, 2001. ) This bias is even apparent in selection of news stories. During the Reagan years stories about the homeless (who were invariably portrayed as middle class people down on their luck as opposed to people with pathologies such as drug or alcohol addiction) appeared far more frequently than during the Clinton years, though the homeless problem did not abate or abate nearly as much as the coverage.

Any objective definition of the location of the political mainstream must be made with reference to the country as a whole. The middle of the political spectrum is clearly smack dab in the middle between Republicans and Democrats. In the last four presidential elections, the Democratic Party has won twice and Republicans have won twice. Though President Bush won the last election, it is clear the electorate was pretty much split down the middle. Republicans control the House of Representatives by a narrow margin and the Democrats control the Senate by virtue of a single Senator who changed his allegiance from the Republicans and became independent, aligned with the Democrats.

Do the political affiliations and ideological perspectives of the national media even approximate those of the nation as a whole? Not even close. As Goldberg points out:

  • In 1992, while 43%of the public cast their ballots for Clinton, 89% of journalists did.
  • Half of journalists identify themselves as Democrats, while only 4% are Republicans.
  • While 50% of journalists call themselves liberal, only 23% of the public does.
  • Half the country is pro-choice, while 82% of journalists are.

The Conservative viewpoint is radically underrepresented in national newsrooms. From the perspective of the newsroom, the news coverage does represent the mainstream perspective. However, their mainstream is a little meandering tributary far to the left of the national mainstream.

People are not stupid. They realize when the news is being presented from a perspective far different from theirs. When the three broadcast networks had a monopoly, the viewing public had little choice what to watch. However, the Liberal slant of the news gave rise to Conservative talk radio as a refuge for like-minded people further to the right of the national media. More recently, viewers have hemorrhaged from the broadcast news to cable channels and the Internet. This has contributed to the meteoric rise of the Fox News Channel. At one time the major three broadcast newscasts enjoyed 75% of the audience. This dominance evaporated to 43% by 2001. At this rate, it will become harder and harder to argue that the national broadcast media is Liberally biased. There will be less left of the national broadcast media to criticize.

And how have Goldberg’s former colleagues, colleagues how make a habit of seeking out whistle-blowers in other industries, reacted? Well, Goldberg no longer appeared on Dan Rather’s CBS Evening News after his op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal.

It is hard to characterize Goldberg a right-wing fanatic given that he is “pro-choice” on abortion rights, voted for George McGovern in 1972 and never voted for Ronald Reagan given two opportunities in the 1980’s. Nonetheless, he has been accused of having an “agenda.”

It is hard to impugn Goldberg’s journalistic credentials given that the has won seven emmys for his reporting. Nonetheless, critic Tom Shales of the Washington Post, answered the thesis in Bias by describing Goldberg has a “full-time addlepated windbag” and “a no talent hack” who “usually looked disheveled and bleary-eyed on the air.” Then, with out the slightest touch of irony, Shales accused Goldberg of “a laughably inept hate campaign [emphasis added].” Goldberg could not have made his point about the inability of media to be self-critical more eloquently than Shales inadvertantly did.

The Ball Toss and Growing Up

Saturday, February 23rd, 2002

“Since baseball time is measured only in outs, all you have to do is succeed utterly; keep hitting, keep the rally alive, and you have defeated time. You remain forever young.” — Roger Angell.

In early 1990, I was flying home after having been away from home for over a week. At the time, my boys were nine and six. The movie on the return trip home was Field of Dreams starring Kevin Costner. The film was a fantasy about an Iowa farmer who is haunted by voices imploring him to construct a baseball stadium in the middle of his cornfield. “If you build it, they will come.”

To some, the movie was about the fictitious return of “Shoeless Joe Jackson,” who had been unfairly banned from baseball after the Black Sox World Series fixing scandal in 1919, to play baseball once again. On a more profound level, it is about how families support each other. Baseball is often the medium within which the conventional passages of life are played out.

The young Iowa farmer, Ray Kinsella, who is the protagonist of the film, has been estranged from his father since the age of 17. Even when they disagreed, baseball used to be the one thing Ray and his father could generally discuss civilly. They could talk while tossing a baseball between them. Their estrangement was deeper than baseball, but it was an argument about baseball that symbolized their final separation. As Ray and his father parted, Ray insulted his father by wondering aloud how his father could idolize a criminal Joe Jackson. Ray’s father died before they could reconcile.

At the end of the movie, old ballplayers emerge from the cornfield to play on the field Kinsella had built. One of the players was Ray’s father, youthful before the worries of age had overwhelmed him. Ray reconciles with his father through the simple expediency of grabbing a mitt and tossing a ball with his dad. Anyone who would not want to immediately go home and toss the ball around with his son after seeing the movie needs a remedial parenting class.

It is often unclear whether baseball is a metaphor for life or visa versa. Nonetheless, how one tosses a baseball with his child measures the stages of a child’s growth as certainly as the marks on a doorway mark a child’s height. In the beginning, you sit inside with your son or daughter on a soft floor legs spread, feet touching, so you form a small, enclosed, and protected world. The simple rolling of the ball back and forth unites father and child in a common endeavor.

When a child gets a little older, you can toss the light whiffle ball back and forth with them until, through trial-and-error and instruction they master the coordination required to guide the ball’s trajectory. When they get older still, you entrust their young hands with a hard ball, capable of great velocity and damage. Placing a hardball in the hands of a youngster says, “I trust you” more eloquently than poetry. Nonetheless, you carefully throw the ball back to them so they do not get hurt as they master the art of predicting where the ball will fly off your hands and placing their mitt into a position to received the advancing ball.

Then there comes a wonderful moment, sometimes imperceptibly, when your faith becomes complete. You can throw the ball at them, without taking a little speed off of it, confident that they can catch the ball. Kids know when you are going easy on them and when they realize you are not pulling pace off the ball, their pride swells within.

Raising children, however, is not without pain. Part of being a teenager is testing limits and testing yourself against adults. There comes a time when a child not only returns the ball with pace, but tests you by throwing the ball as fast as they can, happy if they can elicit a wince from the sting of hard thrown ball. Throwing the ball hard is an assertion of independence. It tells the parent, the time when your child needs your constant attention is nearing an end. Finally, they find they do not need to throw the ball too hard. They relax and throw the ball just for the enjoyment of throwing a ball. Your kids have grown up. They have the confidence of adults.

Both my boys are now in college and have passed through the stages of the simple baseball toss. I do not know yet, but I am fearful that there is another stage. A stage when they do not throw the ball at you with all their might; when they do not throw the ball at you as an equal; a stage when they deliberately take pace off the ball so as not to endanger you.

Recently, my 14-year-old daughter asked to play catch with me. I now can throw the ball at her with little worry about her ability to handle it. She surprised me by throwing the ball at me as hard as she can and the ball stung a little. She is getting to be a big girl now. I am a proud parent.

Assault on the First Amendement

Sunday, February 17th, 2002

It is quintessentially American to be exquisitely sensitive to threats to liberty. Any country born with the motto “Don’t tread on me,” could hardly be otherwise. We worry about limits on flag burning and flag waving, about whether Nazis can march in Jewish neighborhoods, under what conditions artists funded by the government can produce art that is offensive to the public, the extent to which terrorists enjoy the right to counsel, and even the applicability of US Constitutional rights to illegal combatants caught in a foreign land. Yet, the focus on these questions can largely obscure sweeping threats that are far more pervasive and more directly threatening to American liberty. The implicit limitation of free speech hiding under the euphemism of campaign finance “reform” represents just such a threat.

The dynamics of calls for such reform are relentless. As governments grow more and more intrusive in the economy, government decisions rather than impersonal market forces determine economic winners and losers. As a consequence, there are stronger and stronger incentives to influence such decisions. As the perception of influence grows, so do cynicism about the influence and calls for regulation.

The 1974 campaign finance bill, following the Watergate scandal, limited individual contributions to $1,000 per candidate per election, political action committees (PACs) were limited to $5,000 per candidate per election, candidates spending of personal funds was capped and expenditures by independent groups was constrained to $1,000 per candidate per election.

In Buckley v. Valeo, the Supreme Court agreed that the law was far too expansive. While limitations on spending might avoid the “appearance of corruption” this argument could hardly be made against a candidate spending his own money. This limitation was struck down. Limitations on spending by independent groups were ruled a violation of the First Amendment.

After all the dust had settled, in exchange for some government financing, candidates could agree to spending limits. Direct contributions to candidates are called “hard money.” Contributions to political parties for general party activities fall into the category of “soft money.” Campaign ads paid for by soft money near the time of an election are not permitted to directly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate.

Ever clever, political professionals adapted to these new restrictions. Campaign ads for using soft money became cleverly disguised ads that supported general themes that helped or hurt various candidates. Money also flowed to independent groups to make the case for and against independent candidates.

To some, political speech in the form a campaign ads is getting out of control. The recently passed Shays-Meehan House bill bans “soft money” from the national parties, and prohibits unions, corporations and non-profit organizations from broadcasting ads that directly refer to a candidate within 60 days of an election. This latter provision will almost certainly not pass constitutional muster. Indeed, Congress is so certain that it will be overturned that it specifically provides in the legislations that the various components are severable. If one part does not pass a court test, the rest of the legislation would remain. It is irresponsible at the very least for Congress to pass legislation that they are reasonably certain is unconstitutional. Such an action shows a profound disrespect for Constitutional constraints.

Even now it is apparent that if the current bill becomes law, there will be important (unintended or not) consequences that are not healthy for the political process.

Incumbent Protection: In general, incumbents are better known in their districts than challengers and require fewer funds to introduce themselves to voters. To the extent that campaign funds are limited overall and to the extent that electioneering is limited, incumbents are helped. Incumbents, the ones who are writing the law, provided an exception for running against wealthy challengers who finance their own campaigns. If a challenger is wealthy, an incumbent is allowed raise more “hard money” Certainly, if the raising of such funds is corrupting, it is still corrupting in the presence of a well-heeled opponent.

Reducing the Relative Power of Parties: Political parties are where people of broadly similar political persuasions congregate. The presence of political parties nurtures political diversity. Parties will support with money long-shot candidates that political action committees and independent interest groups eschew as poor investments. As political parties wither, political competition weakens. Even in the unlikely event that limitations on campaign funds by independent groups within 60 days of election are upheld, the influence of such groups will increase. National political parties will not have soft money to spend and will not be able to respond to the pitches of various interest groups. Since independent interest groups by their very nature focus on single issues, the political debate will become more polarized and angry. Political parties have a centralizing influence. The Shays-Meehan bill greatly reduces this civilizing effect.

Increasing the Power of Large Media. With fewer political voices mandated by legislation, the power of the press to set the agenda free from dissenting voices grows. There are people on both the Left and the Right convinced that mainstream media misrepresents their issues. Under the planned legislation, the relative power of the press, yes even the corporate press, increases.

Now that passage of this form of campaign finance reform seems likely, some on the Left, are beginning to have second thoughts. Republicans have traditionally had greater success in raising hard money, and this bill increases hard money limits. In particular, Democratic candidates in 2004 presidential elections will likely exhaust their hard money funds in hard-fought primaries in early March or April 2004. Assuming that Bush runs essentially unopposed in the Republican primaries, the Bush campaign will be able to present the case for Bush’s re-election with hard money throughout the summer.

Many in favor of the current campaign reform regime argue that there are no real restrictions on the freedom of speech, because “money is not speech.” Of course, the phrase is a deliberate mis-characterization of the issue. If money is directly connected to speech then it is part of protected of speech. By way of analogy, governments could not limit the amount of money spent to print up a pamphlet and argue that they were not regulating speech but money.

The guiding ethos for free speech has been that, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” ( Friends of Voltaire, 1906) It has now changed to, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it — so long as it is more that 60 days before a federal election.”

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