Archive for the ‘Social Commentary’ Category

Unintelligent Debate Over Intelligent Design

Sunday, April 20th, 2008

“…the magisterium of science covers the empirical realm: what the Universe is made of (fact) and why does it work in this way (theory). The magisterium of religion extends over questions of ultimate meaning and moral value. These two magisteria do not overlap, nor do they encompass all inquiry (consider, for example, the magisterium of art and the meaning of beauty).” — Stephen Jay Gould.

The debate between some scientists and some believers over the issue of Intelligent Design is only useful in that illuminates the re-occurrence of issues that should have been settled rather definitively in the last century. The movement to promote Intelligent Design as a critique of Darwinisn is primarily reflective of a reaction by believers against some rationalists and humanists who wish to stamp out belief.

Intelligent Design posits an answer to a question that science, as a matter of axiom, refuses to allow itself. The essential argument of Intelligent Design is that Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection is not sufficient to explain either the origin of life or of its observed wondrous complexity and beauty.  Hence, there must be an “intelligent designer.” Although the theory of natural selection has proven extremely useful and effective in explaining observed evolution, there are surely open questions that need be addressed or observations that can not yet been completely explained.

One axiom of science is not to permit itself to resort to supernatural explanations. When confronted with the unknown or unexplainable, scientists must step a back and simply say science is not sufficient, at least not yet, of explaining the observations. An intelligent agent behind nature is excluded from the scientific solution set

Nonetheless, people are free to adopt the disciplines of science or not depending on their purposes and preferences. Indeed, one can assert the existence of an intelligent designer even if we find scientific explanations largely sufficient.

As Gould observes “…the magisterium of religion extends over questions of ultimate meaning and moral value.” Religion answers the questions of why not how. In any integrated personality, both these questions must be addressed, but there is no reason why an individual cannot use the different ways of thinking to address different problems. For example, no one would find it unexpected that one would use a different set of sensibilities for  scientific inquiry than literary or art appreciation.

At this point, the polemical extremes are battling it out. One one side we have evangelical atheists like Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens who mock traditional believers and not too subtly paint them as simple-minded and religious belief as inherently destructive. On the other hand, Ben Stein in the new film Expelled criticizes the scientific establishment for using dismissals and tenure denial as a heavy-handed means to suppress criticism by Intelligent Design advocates. Science, which is based on open inquiry, is thus easy to paint as hypocritical.

This is an unnecessary battle resting on a misunderstanding of the appropriate relationship between science and religion.

Steele’s Prediction and Future Danger

Sunday, March 23rd, 2008

At the end of last year, Shelby Steele penned what yet prove to be prophetic book, A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can’t Win anticipating the dynamics and  consequences of Senator Barak Obama’s presidential candidacy. Although it is probably true that Obama, on the precipice of earning the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, advanced has much farther then many, including Steele, anticipated, Steele’s observations seem eerily correct.

Steele’s thesis is that in contemporary American society the outward face of blacks who have achieved notoriety can be generalized into two categories: “challengers” and “bargainers.” The Jesse Jacksons and Al Sharptons are quintessential challengers. Challengers start with the assumption that American society is inherently racist. Whites must demonstrate and prove their racial bonafides and good will by adopting the full range of liberal policy prescriptions, particularly those that having to do with compensating for past injustices, like affirmative action. Challengers generally make whites uncomfortable, fearful of doing or saying the wrong thing and being tagged as “insensitive.” As a consequence, many whites just avoid racial issues.

Those like Oprah Winfrey, Tiger Woods, and Barack Obama, Steele labels as “bargainers.” The bargain these people strike is that they assume the good intentions of others in exchange for comity. It is not that bargainers believe that racism does not exist or that it has not  resulted in tragic historic injustices, but they given the benefit of the doubt to contemporary Americans. This allows whites to be more comfortable in the presence of bargainers. With bargainers, Whites don’t have fear making an innocent remark that will be misinterpreted as racist. Whites can, at least in day-to-day activities, pretend that we live in gentle, color-blind society.

Obama is a careful bargainer and has a consequence been a very successful presidential candidate thus far. He has been called a “transforming” black candidate who, though conspicuously black, can sails deftly through the seas of the white community. Obama is a talented speaker who has excited the public with the promise of “change”

Early in the Democratic primary season, Senator Hillary Clinton still did very well among black voters. Obama was the candidate of liberal upscale whites, the people whose nagging guilts he assuaged. Now, that he has an opportunity to actually win, Obama has also excited the black community’s pride. In primaries now, he regularly wins an overwhelming majority of the blacks voters n the primaries.

Steele argues that the dilemma for conspicuous blacks is that neither the “bargaining” nor the “challenging” can be completely authentic. They are both “masks” worn by a minority in a majority society as a way of coping.  Masks hide the more difficult tasks for blacks to understand their own minds, and to treat whites as other individuals as blacks ask to be treated. If this mask worn by Obama is shed away there is the possibility that the comfort some whites have for him will atrophy.

This is the grave danger for Obama posed by the issue of the incendiary statements made by Obama’s Paster Jeremiah Wright. It is hard for Obama to appear to be a transformative uniter who brings together blacks, whites, and other minorities when his “spiritual adviser” is a race-bating bigot who urges God to “damn America.” Obama is stuck. He can repudiate Wright’s remarks, but he refuses to “disaown” himself of Wright. They are too close. Obama chose Wright to marry him and his wife and to baptize his two girls.

There is nothing in his demeanor, statements, or past that suggests that Obama subscribes to the extreme positions of his pastor. Yet he continued to maintain an intimate association over two decades. Perhaps he just joined this church to gain some “street cred” to help future political prospects in Chicago. Perhaps, Obama felt some tender loyalty to the person led him to Christ, and when it turned out that Wright had some ugly opinions, Obama felt uncomfortable it confronting Wright directly. This is understandable, but not exactly a profile in courage. Perhaps, while not subscribing to the anti-American rants of his minister, he harbors some lingering sympathy for black liberation theology his church. It is impossible to make this assessment from a distance.

Obama faces two choices: He can distance himself even more from Wright reducing his credibility in the black community, or keep Wright modest proximity and run the danger of becoming the “black” candidate as opposed to the uniter. It is very possible that Obama will be able to rhetorically threat this needle and be spared facing the dilemma. He is nothing if not intellectually and verbally talented and agile. If he can’t manage to resolve this problem, we run the risk that either the Democratic National Convention or the general election or both will become thought of as a“black” versus “white” contest.  And if Obama looses with a racially polarized vote, the 2008 election cycle may prove culturally divisive.

Bad Habits Catch Up with Geraldine Ferraro

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman, he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept.” — 1984 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee, Geraldine Ferraro.”

It would be gallant to remember Democrat Geraldine Ferraro as the first woman to have a chance to become vice-president, but that would represent noble hyperbole. She was the running mate of former Vice-President Walter Mondale as he tried to prevent President Ronald Reagan and Vice-President George H. W. Bush from election to a second term in 1984.

Mondale and Ferraro never really had a chance. The memory of the failed presidency of Jimmy Carter was too fresh in everyone’s mind, and the conviction that because of Reagan it was “morning America” again for the Democrats to have any realistic prospect for victory in that election cycle. The Mondale-Ferraro ticket was crushed in just about everyone way possible. The pair lost the popular vote 58.8% to 40.6% and the Electoral College by an astounding 525-13. Mondale and Ferraro only carried Mondale’s home state of Minnesota. Even there, Mondale squeaked by 49.7% to 49.5% in the popular vote. A difference of 0.2% in the popular vote in Minnesota kept Reagan and Bush from earning 100% of the Electoral College vote.

Indeed, the challenge of facing so formidable a candidate as Reagan was one of the reasons that a Congress person  from New York was pulled from obscurity and put on the ticket. By boldly selecting Ferraro, Mondale hoped to secure a greater fraction of the female vote. Such an expectation was a little patronizing, but desperation was in order. In retrospect, it is hard to determine whether Ferraro helped or hurt Mondale’s prospects. Mondale was destined to loose with whatever vice-presidential candidate ran with him. Ferraro ran for office credibly despite the fact that her finances  where a source of controversy.

Now in public campaign speech, it is acceptable to say that a particular vice-presidential candidate was chosen to geographically or ideologically balance a ticket. However, it is not good form to say out loud that a candidate was picked because of gender or race. In 1984, it would have be declasse to have publicly argued that Ferraro was only selected because she was a woman. The history of gender and race discrimination make such observations uncomfortable. Though it might have been impolite to observe that she was selected for her gender two decades ago, she concedes that herself now.

Unfortunately, the Democrat Party has fallen into the habit of worrying about group rather than individual representation. This practice of identity politics accustoms people to looking at race or gender first when evaluating an individual. Republicans, in order to fight this identity politics, have been trained to never, never make racial or gender observations. Doing so brings the entire weight of the mainstream media down on the Republican. To make a racial observation for a Republican plays into the media’s perception of Republicans as harboring latent racist and misogynistic dispositions.

Geraldine Ferraro is not even close to being racist. However, when she suggested that Senator Barrack Obama is leading in the Democratic primary contest because he is black, the cauldron of identity politics stirred up in her party forced her to step down from the Hillary Clinton campaign. It is a little ironic that a political party that embraces affirmative action, where race and gender are specifically used in the selection process for school admissions or hiring, are so sensitive to Ferraro’s observation that race played a role in Obama’s recent electoral success.

Those who rise to the most prominent and conspicuous positions, like Senators Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton, do so on the basis of a complex combination of talent, work, education, family, cultural heritage, and no small measure of good fortune. Race and gender further influence the rise of different individuals. Given the history of racial and gender discrimination, it is better that the role of such factors remain publicly unexamined by politicians.

It is indeed a welcome outcome that a black man and a female can be serious contenders for the presidency, however, ugly identity politics may ultimately decide who the Democratic nominee is. Is it unbecoming to confess to a small feeling of schadenfreude at the discomfort as a consequence of identity politics of those who have exploited it so mercilessly in the past?

The NY Times and the Lack of Intellectual Diversity

Sunday, February 24th, 2008

Even with the best of intentions, it is difficult to humans to be dispassionate in the evaluation of evidence. We all have internal narratives of how the world works. When presented with evidence that buttresses our ideas, we tend to accept such evidence. When confronted with evidence that challenges or questions our notions, we try to find reasons to dismiss or discount that evidence. This is not necessarily an inherent character flaw. If we entirely bounced between different ideas as new evidence presented itself, we would be all sail and no rudder. Our world view should be responsive to new evidence, but there should be a measure of inertia that allows us to consider new contradictory information as provisional.

One important control on ideas is to have peers, particular with diverse ideas critically examine our conclusions. It is the lack of this intellectual diversity that cost Dan Rather his job at CBS over its story about President George W. Bush’s Texas Air National Guard service. Rather’s  report was  in large measure based on documents that proved to be forgeries. These forgeries were so obvious that once the story ran on the 60 Minutes II news program, bloggers were able to quickly demonstrate that the fonts in the forgeries post-dated the time of the supposed documents, and could be easily re-created with Word and a copy machine. Rather and his compatriots at CBS did not start out to broadcast false information. However, the documents were so in keeping with their beliefs and their desires that normal journalistic skepticism was dispensed with. They just had to be true.

If the politics in the CBS newsroom were not a mono culture, the obvious flaws in the documents would have likely been discovered before CBS embarrassed itself and further diminished its already declining credibility.

One might have hoped that other organizations would have learned from this conspicuous and well-document error, but the NY Times apparently hasn’t.  On February 21, the paper published an article that  implied that Senator John McCain had a sexual relationship with a lobbyist and that this relationship resulted in special favors. A critical examination of the article reveals that no one said that they knew there was a romantic relationship and the principals deny it. Moreover, the most McCain apparently did for the telecommunications lobbyist’s company was to request that the government act on the company’s license application that had already taken twice as long as to consider as normal. Moreover, he explicitly wrote that he was not urging the government to make any particular decision only that it make whatever decision it needed to make in a timely manner. Hardly the stuff that scandals are made of.

Who knows? There may actually be a scandal somewhere in this or any candidate’s past, but if the NY Times had adult supervision it would have waited for more evidence before publishing this as a page 1 story. The story undercuts the NY Times credibility and partially immunizes McCain against similar charges in the future.

Bill Keller, the executive editor of the NY Times and the person who had to give the final OK for publication in the wake of the controversy conceded: “I was surprised by how lopsided the opinion was against our decision [to publish] with readers who described themselves as independents and Democrats joining Republicans in defending Mr. McCain from what they saw as a cheap shot.” This suggests the the NY Times newsroom does not even have sufficient population of moderate Democrats and independents to bring intellectual diversity. The “Gray Lady” is apparently not meeting enough people with a variety of ideas and growing a little senile and tone deaf in the process.

Schechter Poultry

Sunday, February 17th, 2008

“ We are beginning to wipe out the line that divides the practical from the ideal; and in so doing we are fashioning an instrument of unimagined power for the establishment of a morally better world.” — Franklin D. Roosevelt, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 1937.

There is a real human story behind the 1935 case of A. L. A. Schechter Poultry v. United States. The United States was in the grips of the Great Depression that despite, and perhaps because of, the active efforts of government refused to yield its grip. The story of the Schechter family is one symbolic part of a re-examination of the history of the Great Depression as told in The Forgotten Man by Amity Shlaes. Her thesis is that despite some salutary economic changes, the Depression lasted far longer than it needed to. Indeed, the Great Depression did not end until the economic stimulus of World War II. Human suffering of these “forgotten men” was the price paid for by the well-intentioned arrogance of those who believed they could manage the economy better from Washington.

The National Recovery Administration was a Depression Era agency that grew out of a conviction that the free markets were the cause of, or at least could not relieve the Great Depression. The NRA set prices and rules that dictated the detailed functioning of the economy. There was an earnest belief that private decisions had caused the Depression and it would require the economic supervision of wise men in the government to reverse it. Nothing empowers low-level administrative functionaries inclined to bullying more than self-righteousness and Schechter family was the unfortunate target.

Three Schechter brothers ran a kosher butcher shop counter to NRA regulations. Historically, the quality of poultry in many kosher butcher shops was ensured by the fact that customers could choose the chickens they wanted slaughtered, and customers invariably tried to select the healthiest and most robust chickens. The NRA wanted to end this practice to create greater uniformity in the poultry industry. However, without this and other more personal services, the Schechters could not compete against larger butcher shops.

The refusal of the Schechter brothers to conform brought the legal weight of the Federal government on the Brooklyn residents and the Schechters took their case to the courts. The case threatened to undermine the Constitutionality of a key symbol of government economic supervision and was taken seriously. The case quickly gained notoriety and the journalistic guns of the New Deal did not hesitate to train their formidable fire on the Schechters. Drew Pearson and Robert Allen were not above exploiting anti-Semitism in criticizing “Joseph [Schechter] and his Brethren” for the refusal to modify their traditional practices to conform to the NRA.

In a landmark case, the Supreme Court ultimately ruled against the government. In the Court’s view the legislature had unconstitutionality ceded its power to the executive branch. Further, the regulation of poultry practices in Brooklyn did not amount to the regulation of interstate commerce and was therefore not part of the enumerated powers granted the Federak government. Rulings like this were part of the reason that Roosevelt unsuccessfully tried to circumvent the Supreme Court by expanding its membership to allow him to select more justices.

It would be convenient if the message of the case is that the small guy can triumph in the courts even against the Federal government. This message is lost in a dangerous irony. Even after defeating the Roosevelt Administration and his intrusive minions who had attempted to regulate the Schechters out of business, the Schechter brothers continued to faithfully vote for Roosevelt. The Schechters did not link the actions of the NRA to Roosevelt himself. It seems that the sympathy engendered by Roosevelt’s fireside chats trumped even their family’s interest. Roosevelt successfully continued to blame private wealthy individuals for his failure to reverse the country’s economic fortunes.

51 Via Margutta

Sunday, January 27th, 2008

Old movies are new to people who have viewed them for the first time only recently. On the recommendation of friends, I recently saw the movie Roman Holiday when it was broadcast on the Turner Classic Movies network. There were three stars in the movie: Gregory Peck, Audrey Hepburn, and the city of Rome. The well-known plot focuses around Princess Ann (played by Hepburn) from an unnamed country who gets lost one night in Rome and literally falls under the protection of a newspaper reporter, Joe Bradley (played by Peck). Princess Ann does not wish to reveal her status and Joe Bradley tries to conceal his occupation because he needs to secure an exclusive story about the princess. They spend a day experiencing Rome and love intervenes.

In the last six months, I have had the opportunity to visit Rome a couple of times, seeing many of the eternal sites of Rome that appear in the movie. During this last visit, I thought it would be interesting to explore the quiet residential area near the Spanish Steps to find 51 Via Margutta where the fictional reporter Joe Bradley lived in the movie.

Below are a few pictures from a short visit to 51 Via Margutta:


Street sign.



Yours truly in front on the entrance to 51 via Margutta.
When some residents of 51 via Margutta showed up, I asked in poor, broken Italian where Gregory Peck was. The question was sufficient to persuade them to let me and my friends into the 51 via Margutta court yard. This was probably a unique concession to winter visitors. There are probably too many interested people in the summer to be so kind. Below are the steps covered with a viney overhang leading to Joe Bradley’s apartment.




Steps to Joe Bradley’s apartment.
The balcony below was featured in the film when Joe Bradley’s landlord looked askance from it as Joe Bradley loaned money to Princess Ann as she left Bradley’s apartment.




Balcony
Rome is a beautiful city with many sites. This small little corner on via Margutta is one that I will remember because of the hospitality of few Romans.

Whining Quinn

Saturday, December 29th, 2007

There is not doubt that many times Congress squanders time and attention on hortatory resolutions that please narrow constituencies from comic book enthusiasts to Dutch-Americans. Although we might prefer that Congress spend its finite time more constructively, at least these resolutions do not generally diminish the treasury and may actually divert Congress from more mischievous pursuits. Of all the inconveniences we endure for a representative democracy, this represents but a small added price.

Nonetheless, if one has a fine-enough tuned sense of victimhood, it alway possible to find offense. Sally Quinn is an accomplished journalist who has spent over four decades at the center of the Washington Beltway culture and should have grown a hard crust to protect her feelings. Quinn is upset at the “bulling pulpit” of Congressional resolution 847 that:

“(1) recognizes the Christian faith as one of the great religions of the world; (2) expresses continued support for Christians in he United States and worldwide; (3) acknowledges the international religious and historical importance of Christmas and the Christian faith; (4) acknowledges and supports the role played by Christians and Christianity in the founding of the United States and in the formation of the western civilization; (5) rejects bigotry and persecution directed against Christians, both in the United States and worldwide; and (6) expresses its deepest respect to American Christians and Christians throughout the world.”

Quinn finds this praise of Christianity a too exclusionary. What about non-Christians? Well there is no cost to sponsoring a resolution, so there is always a handy Congressional resolution for others who may ask. Out of respect to our Islamic brothers and sisters, Congress passed resolution 635 which proclaimed:

“…during this time of conflict, in order to demonstrate solidarity with and support for members of the community of Islam in the United States and throughout the world, the House of Representatives recognizes the Islamic faith as one of the great religions of the world; and (2) in observance of and out of respect for the commencement of Ramadan, the Islamic holy month of fasting and spiritual renewal, the House of Representatives acknowledges the onset of Ramadan and expresses its deepest respect to Muslims in the United States and throughout the world on this significant occasion.”

It is hard to argue that Congressional has not paid appropriate to respect to all manner of religious faiths, so Quinn aim her complaint to the fact that non-believers have not be singled out for special celebration. The argument is as shallow as an inside-the-Beltway conscience. It is hard to pay tribute to a negative. For example, we might pay special thanks to veterans, it somewhat silly to argue that there ought special thanks to those that didn’t serve.

One important advantage of having children is the development of a sensitive ear to whining. Quinn’s plaintive complaints sounds to these ears like the mournful sounds of child who feels that she has not been treated fairly. Someone else has received attention an she hasn’t. Given a little time to reconsider her words, Quinn will undoubted realize the temporary foolishness of her gripe about something as trivial as a toothless Congressional resolution.

Religion and State

Sunday, December 16th, 2007

Roger Cohen was born in 1955 in London and raised with a European perspective. He can perhaps be forgiven for his profound ignorance and condescending arrogance with regard the relationship between religion and the state in the United States. In his article, “Secular Europe’s Merits,’‘ Cohen criticized Presidential candidate’s Mitt Romney sad allusion to the fact the grand cathedrals in Europe are largely empty because Europeans are too “enlightened” to go and actually fill those cathedrals. Cohen sarcastically remarks that, “Europeans still take the Enlightenment seriously enough not to put it inside quote marks.”

Here, Cohen reveals his fundamental misunderstanding. Romney placed “Enlightenment” in quotation remarks not because he disparages the authority of reason, but because too many in Europe, unlike our American Founders, have embraced the notion that reason and faith are incompatible. There is no logical reason why Europe cannot be both enlightened and have churches brimming with people. Is Cohen arguing that those who attend Church are, by definition, unenlightened?

Like many in Europe, he enjoys the blood sport of pulling President George Bush’s comments out of context to make him appear to be a religious zealot devoted to making the US a theocracy. For example, Cohen ridicules Bush’s “allusions to divine guidance — `the hand of a just and faithful God.'” The implication is that Bush feels himself as acting implicit direction of such a God.

It is kinder to assume that Cohen pulled this quotation from some blog without the knowledge of its full context than that he deliberately misquoted Bush. The phrase Cohen cites came from an annual prayer breakfast. In a full context, Bush was arguing the exact opposite of Cohen’s assertion that Bush was claiming some special knowledge of God’s will. Bush was saying that sometimes we don’t understand how God works in this world. Nonetheless, we have faith in the notion that God’s purposes will still be served.

“We can also be confident in the ways of Providence, even when they are far from our understanding. Events aren’t moved by blind change and chance. Behind all of life and all of history, there’s a dedication and purpose, set by the hand of a just and faithful God. And that hope will never be shaken.” [Emphasis added-FMM]

This is not much different in sentiment from Abraham Lincoln’s observation in his Second Inaugural Address that the Civil War was perhaps God’s way of eliminating the scourge of slavery.

“The Almighty has His own purposes. `Woe unto the world because of offenses; for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh.’ If we shall suppose that American slavery is one of those offenses which, in the providence of God, must needs come, but which, having continued through His appointed time…”

And Bush remarks were certainly less suggestive of a theocracy than Presidential candidate Barak Obama’s request to be an “instrument of God” to create “a Kingdom right here on Earth.” In the immediately preceding column, Cohen was rather complimentary of “Obama’s American Ideals.” One suspects that if a Republican had made the exact same remarks about bringing a Kingdom here on Earth, Cohen would have led the legions defending the secular state against the agents of theocracy.

It is possible to both moral and secular. However, our forefathers made the observation that a free society cannot long exist without being a moral society and that religion has proven to be a key agent of morality. George Washington Farewell Address:

“And let us with caution indulge the supposition, that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect, that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.”

The First Amendment’s protections of religious freedom were designed as least much to protect religion from the state as the state from religion.

Support the Troops

Sunday, December 9th, 2007

If one notices a bumper sticker on a car that says “Support the Troops,” the unspoken assumption is that the owner of the car not only supports the troops but the policies of the Bush Administration in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is unfortunate. The two positions are not logically connected. One could certainly think well of the troops and recognize their sacrifice on our behalf and strongly disagree with Bush’s policy. However, the Liberals and the Left have left the field open for Conservatives to associate themselves with the natural American inclination to support their sons and daughters in the military.

This began in Vietnam when the Left was so angry with the war that to discredit the war they habitually lapsed into discrediting the troops by exaggerating transgressions. Even Senator John Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, who might have had strong reason to be sympathetic to troops, most of them drafted, painted a disquieting and largely inaccurate picture of American troops who,

“…personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, tape wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the country side of South Vietnam in addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of this country.”

The habit was renewed in the present Iraq conflict. The story of the very real abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib early after the conclusion of initial hostilities in Iraq were played and replayed on the front pages of the NY Times and other media outlets to the point that these media outlets succeeded in making that an early symbol of the war and unfortunately the war fighters.

This attack on soldiers has now become so habitual that sometimes it is impossible for certain elements of the media to support the troops in even modest ways. The FreedomWatch organization strongly supports Bush’s policies. It has tried to run some thank-the-troops television ads during the holiday season. CNN and Fox news have run the ads without a problem, but MSNBC and CNBC have refused to run the ads.

The ads are very benign and certainly not controversial. They are certainly less controversial than ads for Sicko, Michael Moore polemic masquerading as a documentary run by these and other networks including FoxNews. Click here to see the ads and make your own judgment about how controversial the ads really are. The refusal of MSNBC and CNBC to run these ads provide additional evidence that some in the media have unfortunately convinced themselves that anything positive about and for the troops should be suppressed lest they might accidentally lend support to Bush’s policies.

How Long Will Retirement Assets Last?

Sunday, December 2nd, 2007

It is a symptom of middle age that one begins to ponder the prospects of retirement and an occupational affliction of a scientist to marshal mathematics to consider this question. It is difficult to estimate how much income one needs upon retirement. There are many mitigating factors. A retired person is no longer contributing to Social Security and a retirement plan and so this portion of gross income can be dispensed with. The costs of commuting are no longer a factor and usually by the time of retirement one’s house has been paid for and children have left the home. On the other hand, idleness is not a hopeful retirement prospect. Engaging in activities such as travel introduce additional costs. For someone of modest retirement assets, Social Security will form a larger fraction of post-work income. At higher incomes, Social Security drops to a smaller fraction of the total expected income. For baby boomers, there is also the prospect that demographic trends will place strong downward pressure on Social Security payments, particularly for those whose may have other resources.

Here we put off the question of exactly how much income one needs and try to compute for a given amount of retirement assets, what is a reasonable spending level that will allow those assets to last a lifetime. There are two key factors to answering this question: (1) What is a reasonable rate of return on accumulated assets? (2) How much will inflation erode these assets. To answer this question, we performed a simple simulation, the results of which are shown below in Figure 1.


Figure 1. Retirement scenarios.

We begin the simulation with $1,000,000 in retirement assets. Any values we compute can easily be scaled based on actual assets. We also begin with the assumption that we can safely expect a long-term investment rate of return of 5%. We then assume that the first year we withdraw an income $40,000 (4% of the total). If we started with $2,000,000 in retirement assets, the yearly income would scale to $90,000.For the each subsequent year we increase the withdrawal amount by the inflation rate. Overtime, the $40,000 withdrawal gets nominally larger to maintain a real income of $40,000.

The blue curve starting at year 0 shows the remaining assets as a function of time for a 2% inflation rate (left scale). Note that for more than the first 25 years, there is actual growth in the nominal level of assets.

The other blue curve represents the nominal income as a function of time (right scale). After 40 years, the nominal income under this scenario would grow to nearly $90,000, but it would presumably purchase what $40,000 would have bought at the start of retirement.Note further, that after 40 years, there are sill significant assets remaining, nominally over $500,000. Assuming a retirement age of 65, retirement assets would still remain at age 105.

The red and yellow curves represent the results of similar scenarios assuming inflation rates of 3% and 4%, respectively. Even with a 3% inflation rate, we could maintain a $40,000 real income until age 100. At 4% inflation (or a real rate of 1% for a nominal 5% investment return), funds would last until age 95. In other words, if we can maintain real rates of return on our investment of 1% or greater, a retirement income of 4% of the original assets should should last a lifetime.

How reasonable is it to assume that such rates could last over the three or four decades of retirement? As Physicist Neils Bohr once quipped, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” If we knew with certainty future inflation rates, investment rates of return, and the number of years we would live, retirement planning would be substantially easier. We can, however, look at the past to determine whether our assumptions about the future are plausible.

Figure 2. Comparison of CPI-derived inflation rates with CD rates.

The yellow curve in Figure 2 is the inflation rate computed from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Areas (CPI-U) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 1913 to 2006 (left scale). There have been many oscillations in the past, yet over the last few decades these extremes seem to have modulated. The end of the 1970’s was the last time that we suffered under double-digit inflation. From the 1980’s to the present we have enjoyed inflation rates less that 5%, usually much less.

For our purposes here, the relationship between inflation rates and the nominal rates of return on safe investments is what matters. As long as the investment rate of return on accumulated assets is appreciably larger than the inflation rate, then inflation risks are alleviated. The blue curve inf Figure 2 represents the rate of return from an average of 3-month Certificate of Deport (left scale). Usually, but not always. CDs have rates of return greater than the inflation rate.The red curve is the difference between the CD and CPI-derived inflation rates (right scale). Since 1968, the period over which we have managed to find data, the difference between the two has averaged 2%. For the scenarios outlined in Figure 1, assuming an investment rate of return of 5% and inflation rate of 3% seems reasonable.

There are a number of factors which will mitigate inflation risks associated with retirement. First, a CD rate of return is about about as conservative as one can get. A slightly more aggressive investment strategy would likely improve the long-term investment rate of return. Moreover, the CPI is thought to overestimate the real inflation rate. We actually might be able to increase withdrawals from assets at a rate lower than the inflation rate and maintain the same standard of living. Finally, any retirement strategy need not be rigid. As the investment returns and inflation change, it is possible to alter the withdrawal strategies as accumulated assets increase or decrease unexpectedly.