Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

Patience and Persistence

Sunday, September 30th, 2001

Most will remember that President George W. Bush was once the managing general partner for the Texas Rangers, a major league baseball team. Competition in sports is far less serious than real world conflict. However, at the risk of stretching a metaphor until it snaps, the case can be made that the habits, virtues, and disciplines associated with baseball may serve this President well now.

The comedian George Carlin once had a routine that compared baseball with football. Football, according to Carlin, is a militaristic activity where “the object is for the quarterback, also known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault” while “baseball is a nineteenth-century pastoral game” played in a “park.”

Actually Carlin was wrong. Baseball is as fiercely competitive as football, but the rhythm, pace, and expectations are dissimilar. The differences between football and baseball in some ways mimic the differences between conventional war between massed armies and our present fight against global terrorism.

In football, intelligence, finesse and stealth can be important, but generally victory goes to the most aggressive, the biggest, and the strongest. For example, in World War II, the Americans did not defeat the Germans through cleverness or surgical military strikes as much as by out producing and overwhelming the Third Reich. Our productive capacity and population crushed the Nazis under its weight.

In baseball, the 162-game season is much longer than in football and endurance, patience, persistence, and focus are necessary virtues. No baseball team constantly dominates. Even the best teams loose about a third of their games. Defeats as well as victories punctuate ultimate success. Baseball, therefore, nurtures a constancy and devotion of spirit.

In the same way, the war with terrorism will be a day-by-day struggle with an adversary that will not succumb to force unless that force is wisely applied. Patience, and strength persistently used over months and years will test our endurance. Force and strength are important, but so are intelligence, guile, speed and boldness. Perhaps the 50-year victory over Soviet communism in the Cold War provides a model of low-key conflict carried on over a variety of levels. The War with the Barbary Pirates in the early nineteenth century, not unlike our current problem with state-less terrorists, extended over 15 years.

This conflict with radical terrorists is certainly no game and the stakes are tremendous. The analogy here is not meant to trivialize, but illuminate. In one real way, Carlin was right. The goal in baseball as well as the ultimate goal in our current struggle is to be “safe at home.”

Is Bush Becoming an Artful Dodger?

Sunday, August 12th, 2001

“Wherein is shown how the Artful Dodger got into trouble.” — Charles Dickens, Oliver Twist, Chapter 43.

On May 18 of last year, then candidate George W. Bush stated that,

“I oppose federal funding for stem cell research that involves destroying living human embryos. I support innovative medical research on life-threatening and debilitating diseases, including promising research on stem cells from adult tissue.”

This promise led those in the Pro-Life movement, those who believe that an embryo is a person with all the rights accorded any person, to conclude that a President Bush would not permit federal funds to be spent on embryonic stem cell research. Embryonic stem cells are obtained by destroying embryos.After due deliberation, President Bush decided to permit federal funding of embryonic stem cell research under limited conditions. Private research has already produced a number (The President says 60, but there seems to be a question as to the exact value.) of stem cell lines that can be reproduced indefinitely. Although these lines arose from the destruction of embryos, the use of existing cell lines would not involve the destruction of any more embryos.

Does this recent decision square with Bush’s campaign promise? Technically it probably does. Bush proposes federal research that does not involve “destroying living human embryos,” but involved the destruction of embryos. The tense of the verb keeps Bush true to his campaign promise. However, Pro-Lifers have a legitimate complaint that Bush’s decision was inconsistent with his campaign promise.

Depending on the tense of the verb, “involves” vs “involved,” is so Clinton-like that we may ask the question whether Bush’s decision was an artful dodge or a sincere attempt to reconcile the conflicting interests of potential medical advances and respect for human life. Given Bush’s natural rhetorical clumsiness and unfamiliarity with the careful and conscious parsing of sentences in an effort to deceive, it unlikely that Bush deliberately sought to mislead the Pro-Life community. Indeed, the speech explaining his decision was so straightforward and balanced, giving a fair description of both sides of the embryonic stem cell research issue, it is reasonable to lay cynicism aside for the moment. Bush appears to have made a sincere effort to strike a reasonable balance.

Unfortunately for Bush, it is likely that such a compromise will not last long. The distinction of using previously destroyed embryos is very narrow and unlikely to stem the future destruction of embryos. If embryonic stem cell research succeeds, it is likely that more and more embryonic stem cells will be required not only for research, but therapy. The pressure will grow to generate more and a greater variety of embryonic stem cells. This pressure, perhaps at a time when Bush is no longer President, increases the possibility that more embryos will be destroyed. Bush should hope that the money he proposes to spend on research into alternative uncontroversial sources of stem cells, adults and umbilical cords, will make the use of embryonic stem cells unnecessary.

Although I personally support federal funding of embryonic stem cell research under somewhat broader constraints, for someone like Bush, who believes a person arises at conception, Bush’s decision comes dangerously close to encouraging future destruction of embryos.

On another issue, the Bush Administration seems to be hedging against the wishes of constituencies that elected him. The Bush Administration is preparing to defend preferential treatment based on ethnic heritage in federal contracting, taking the same side as the Clinton Administration.

In 1989, Adarand Construction Inc. lost its construction job, despite having the best bid, to Gonzalez Construction Company due to a Federal set aside. In the same year, the US Supreme Court issued the Croson ruling suggesting that preferential treatment could pass Constitutional muster only if narrowly tailored to remedy the effect of previous discrimination. There was no attempt by Department of Justice in this case to prove systematic previous discrimination in Federal contracts to Hispanic groups. The Clinton Administration has fought Adarand Construction Inc. for over a decade largely ignoring the Croson precedent.

It is generally considered good form to maintain the Justice Department’s position for pending cases as they pass from administration to administration. Nonetheless, the Adarand case is an important signature issue. The reticence of the Bush Administration to switch positions bespeaks of an Administration desperate to be viewed as “moderate” even in the face of principle.

The questions of embryonic stem cell research and the Adarand case are two very distinct and different issues. Each Bush decision can, perhaps, be argued on the merits. Bush’s constituency will be forgiving so long as the Bush Adminsitration appears to act of priniciple, even principle balance by necessary political compromise. However, if the Bush Administration is seen to split hairs on issue after issue and moves away from its core constituency as part of pure political calculation, they will please no one and insure a single term for the second George Bush.

See:

The Day of Reckoning

Sunday, August 5th, 2001

“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts.” — Abraham Lincoln.

There are two important dates that dominate the debate on the future of the Social Security System: 2016 and 2038. At present, Social Security receipts exceed the amount required to pay benefits to current retirees. The excess funds go to the Social Security Trust Fund, essentially government IOUs. In 2016, as more of the baby boom generation retires, Social Security receipts will be inadequate to cover the outflow of benefits. By 2032, the youngest cohort of the baby boomers will finally be retiring. Projections indicate that by 2038 the total paid out in excess of receipts will exceed the amount presumably accumulated in the Social Security Trust Fund. Those who choose to deliberately ignore inevitable Social Security short falls suggest that we have nothing to worry about since the day of reckoning is two generations away. The truth is otherwise.Essentially, the Social Security Trust Fund is a contrivance where one part of the government gives another part of the government an IOU without changing the net obligations of government. During the hearings held by the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security a useful analogy was drawn explaining this accounting chicanery.

Imagine a person attempting to save money towards his own retirement. Let us call him Joe. Assume that Joe has difficulty in maintaining the necessary discipline for retirement savings. Joe spends current income on current expenses and maybe even pays down his credit card debt a bit. To maintain his retirement fund, Joe writes himself IOUs. He, after all, has good credit. He trusts himself. When Joe retires he has a handful of IOUs to himself. However, the only way to redeem these IOUs is for Joe to generate current income. This is no different than if Joe had not bothered to conjure up the fiction of IOUs at all.

By analogy, the only way the government can pay future retirees once Social Security revenues exceed outlays is to reduce liability or increase income. Reducing benefits, increasing taxes, borrowing money, or all three can accomplish this. The year of reckoning is 2016, give or take a year or two, not 2038. For those who are 50 years old today, Social Security will begin to lack funds to meet benefit payments when they begin retirement. There is not much time for these people to make adjustments.

The longer we take to make adjustments to the system, the more wrenching the inevitable changes will be. Under the current Social Security structure, the average two-earner couple will have to pay an additional $860 per year to meet the Social Security shortfall in 2020. The amount grows to $2,100 by 2030. If the annual short fall is met by decreases in benefits alone, in 2020, a couple would have to receive $2,227 lower annual benefits. By 2030, the benefits would fall by $4605. (Draft report of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, July 23, 2001.)

To reduce the unfunded obligations of government there are number of relatively painless steps that can be taken now.

  1. The consumer cost of living index over estimates the true changes in cost of living for the retired. Former Senator Patrick Moynihan suggests that reducing the cost of living adjustment by 1% (e.g. a 2% inflation increase if the inflation rate is 3%) would decrease long-term Social Security costs while maintaining benefits at the real current level.
  2. When the Social Security System was created, life expectancy was considerably lower. In the age of retirement were tagged to life expectancy, the age of maximum Social Security benefit would be over 70 years. If we gradually adjust the retirement age upward, working people would have time to adjust their retirement plans while the long-term instability in Social Security would be alleviated.
  3. We should means test Social Security benefits. There is little social good achieved by subsidizing the retirement of the very affluent with income from young working families. Over the last few decades, the major transfer of wealth has been from the young to the elderly.
  4. We need to allow individuals to elect to invest a portion (say 2% of 12%) of the income going to fund Social Security into private retirement accounts roughly comparable to 401(k) or 403(b) accounts. Future Social Security benefits for those who make such a decision would be proportionately reduced. Others could elect to remain fully vested in the Social Security System. Any current short fall in revenues could be at least partially offset by increasing the income level at which Social Security taxes apply.

Demographic changes are inevitable. In this century, a time is rapidly approaching when there will be only two workers for every retiree. Many Republicans are afraid to explicitly mention the costs involved in reforming the Social Security System so that it becomes actuarially sound. Many Democrats eschew the reform of Social Security so that they can maintain a club with which to beat Republicans over the head during elections.As a Democrat with a large mountain of political capital and in the last years of his second term, former President Bill Clinton was in an excellent position to begin the necessary reforms. He declined. It now remains to his successor to exercise the necessary leadership.

American Unilateralism

Sunday, June 10th, 2001

“We have it in our power to begin the world over again. A situation, similar to the present, hath not happened since the days of Noah until now.” — Thomas Paine, Common Sense.

As President George W. Bush crosses the Atlantic to consult with European allies, he brings with him a unilateralist view that is likely to rankle Europeans. Then again, it is hard to remember when Europeans were happy with Americans. Inherent in this tension is the self-interpretative view Americans have of themselves.

Americans have always identified themselves as special and exceptional, a chosen people, a symbol of freedom unto the world. America did not represent just another country or a piece of land, but a new opportunity to create a world unencumbered by the evil tyrannies shackling Europe. When Puritans landed in the New World they believed they were establishing a new order. John Winthrop, evoked Biblical symbolism (Matthew, 5:14) when he forecast that, “We shall be a as a City on a Hill, the eyes of all people are upon us…” Perhaps none said it better than Thomas Paine who argued in favor of American independence by proclaiming that “We have it in our power to begin the world again.”

This American exceptionalism was expressed in the idea that the United States had a “manifest destiny” to occupy North America. In 1845, John L. O’Sullivan staked out America’s divine right of “…manifest destiny to over spread and to possess the whole of the continent which Providence has given for us for the development of the great experiment of liberty and federaltive development of self government entrusted to us.” Though pursuit of this destiny often proved an excuse for cruelty to and devastation of indigenous peoples, in its most noble embodiment if meant confident fidelity to American aspirations for freedom and individuality.

For the first years of American history, American exceptionalism meant from a practical standpoint the separation of the United States from the rest of the world while it engaged in internal development. Americans traded with the world, but did not engage it politically. We were too good to be sullied by European intrigue. This attitude changed with the World Wars and the Cold War when American uniqueness proved the difference between post-war prosperity and a long descent into darkness.

After only 90 years of existence, it was not clear whether the United States would survive at it strove to expunge the stain of slavery. At times this confidence in American exceptionalism wavered. During the economic catastrophe of the Great Depression or even during the doldrums of the 1970s, America seemed in decline.

This American confidence and self-identity as a chosen people elicits admiration and anger, particularly from Europeans out of which much of the American tradition has emerged. Much of the world admires American prosperity while at the same time tries to console itself with the notion of moral superiority over the United States. Europeans disapprove of us because they cannot stand the fact that they love us so much.

Europeans love to ridicule the United States for its crassness, but hunger for American music and movies. Europeans fancy themselves as the stewards of western culture and a caring society, but lack the creativity of American culture and suffer under the burdens of their welfare states. Europeans lecture Americans on economics, while capital continues to flow from Europe to the United States. It must be infuriating for Europeans to proclaim concern for workers, while they labor with double-digit unemployment rates, while freer markets in the US produce low unemployment rates. Europeans neglect to support a US place on the United Nations Human Rights Commission, while the commission finds a place for China, Libya, and the Sudan.

In a recent essay, Charles Krauthammer argues that George W. Bush is tacking back to American unilateralism in part based on an American understanding of its own uniqueness and importance. Consult, be polite, but act in American interests. For example, while the Europeans have failed to ratify the Kyoto accords on carbon dioxide emissions, they are angry when President Bush states the obvious that the accords are dead. One might have thought that a 95-0 defeat in the Senate for the treaty would have been sufficient warning to Europeans, but it wasn’t. American explicit rejection of the Kyoto accords actually creates political cover for European governments reluctant to embrace the accords. European leaders get to criticize American at little political expense.

George Bush is pushing for missile defense, while Europeans, perhaps more vulnerable to missile strikes from rogue nations, fight what they see as renewed American militarism. Half the time they confidently assert that such a system cannot work and the other half of the time they fret that a protected America would disengage from European defenses.

America, under George W. Bush, refuses to have its interests forgotten in a faux multilateralism that ignores real issues and undermines American and in the long run European interests. What is generally good for the United States will benefit free nations everywhere. When you occupy the City on the Hill, many will be envious. Perhaps more will be inspired.

Jeffords Leaves

Sunday, May 27th, 2001

The last words of the quintessential act of American rebellion, the Declaration of Independence, are “And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.” Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont recently bolted the GOP to give Democrats the control of the Senate by one vote. Jeffords’s honor may have remained intact with this admittedly smaller act of rebellion, but likely, the prospects for his life and fortune, far from being at risk, stood to be enhanced. You may give Jeffords credit for sincerity, but certainly not for courage. Jeffords would have been courageous if he had switched when Republicans controlled the Senate and the move may have cost him politically.

Careful examination by groups as diverse as the American Taxpayers Union and Americans for Democratic Action shows that Senate voting records really do form a bi-model distribution. Democrats, even Conservative ones, tend to vote one way, and Republicans, even Liberal ones, tend to vote another way. Even purported Democratic Conservatives like John Breaux of Louisiana very often vote with their more Liberal Democratic compatriots. There are a handful of Republicans, most noticeably Jeffords, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, and Olympia Snowe from Maine, who really do wander the barren and dangerous no man’s land of “moderation.” Jeffords’s voting record could really put him honorably in either party, but he would by no means be a mainstream Democrat. It will be interesting to see if Jeffords’s voting record changes now as a declared Independent.

Jeffords is personally popular in his own state so party affiliation provides at best only a slight advantage or impediment with Vermont voters. However, quitting the GOP and voting with Democrats gives Jeffords some important advantages. Term limit restrictions on committee chairs would have deprived Jeffords of the chair of the education committee. Because of his crucial switch, he was able to negotiate with Democrats for a critical environmental committee chairmanship. Just think of it, an Independent, selected to chair a Senate committee.

Jeffords argues that President George Bush is more Conservative as a President that he ran as a candidate. It is unclear what particular part of the Bush platform, his tax cut or his education initiatives surprised Jeffords. Bush’s legislative program is pretty much what he promised in his campaign. Bush was after all a “compassionate Conservative.” What did Jeffords expect, a Liberal?

Much is made of the fact that Bush neglected to invite Jeffords to a White House ceremony honoring a Vermont teacher as a small slap on the wrist for working against the Bush tax plan. If such a small act would cause Jeffords to switch political parties, it would imply a sorry petulance inconsistent with the dignity Jeffords wishes to project.

A more plausible reason for switching is that his political leverage is greatest now. As a Republican, he was just one member of a party led from the White House. The Democratic power base, by contrast, is now the Senate. If Strom Thurmond, straddling one hundred years of age, were to become incapacitated and be replaced by a Democrat selected by a Democratic governor, Jeffords would loose leverage in negotiations to switch parties. Sure, the Democrats would have welcomed his abandonment of the GOP, but they would have had to make fewer concessions to him given the majority they already would have.

When Senator Phil Gramm switched from a Democrat to a Republican, he resigned and submitted his name to the Texas voters for approval under the auspices of his adopted party. When Senator Ben Nighthorse-Campbell rose from a Democrat to a Republican, he, like Jeffords, who descended in the opposite direction, did not bother to resubmit his name for voter approval. It should be noted that when Nighthorse-Campbell switched, current Democratic leader Tom Daschle criticized Nighthorse-Campbell for not doing the “honorable” thing and calling for a special election. Neither Nighthorse-Campbell nor Jeffords did anything disreputable in leaving their parties, but certainly, Gramm has set the standard for party-switching honor.

The loss of the Senate is surely an important set back for Republicans. However, Democrats may find (as Republicans have) that it is often easier to be the party in opposition than to labor under the responsibilities of leadership. In addition, if the Senate proves too obstructionist it may become a convenient political target for Republicans. Democrats should be careful what they wish for, lest they get it.

In Search of a Black Republican

Saturday, April 28th, 2001

The comedy show Saturday Night Live used to run a skit, “In Search of a Black Republican.” The skit would show people talking at a party and just when you thought they might have found a black Republican, the search would end in disappointment. Though the skit played many years ago, the results of the November elections would suggest the same search remains largely in vain.The conventional wisdom or, more accurately, fervent hope among Republicans is that they can penetrate this Democratic strong hold and radically shift electoral politics to their benefit. Without the largely monolithic black vote in their favor, Democrats would be uncompetitive. While Republicans can manage to squeak out victories without the black vote, Democrats, as presently constituted, could not.

Even though African-American leadership is strongly Liberal, the African-American community as a whole is far more Conservative than its leadership. Especially in the inner cities, black Americans have endured Democratic leadership that has given them high taxes that still yield poorly performing schools and higher than average crime rates. It is blacks that have suffered the most from failed Democratic policy prescriptions.

As measured by church attendance, African-Americans are more religious than the rest of America. This religiosity is correlated with social Conservatism and provides another potential opening for Republicans. Republicans have believed if they could just find a way to explain to the African-American community how Republican Conservative policy principles would help address their problems, they could peal off support.

Eric Cohen writing the article “Race and the Republicans” published in the Weekly Standard argues that Republicans must do more than “criticize the excesses and destructiveness of race-based thinking.” Articulating Conservative ideology is not only insufficient but off-putting.

Republicans must engage the African-American community in a way that acknowledges their unique history and experience. Republicans must come to recognize that because of their “history of slavery and freedom, segregation and civil rights, bigotry and courage” black America “retains a special moral authority.” In essence, Republicans need to enlist the black Americans in a way that allows them to embrace and speak for a Conservative policy agenda out of that same moral authority.

For example, before his sell out to the Democratic Party establishment, Rev. Jesse Jackson used the historical experience of blacks in his critique of the abortion culture. In 1977, Cohen reports that Jackson explained, “There are those who argue that the right to privacy is [a] higher order than the right to life … That was the premise of slavery.”

Republicans need to embrace the black experience and to learn from African-Americans how their history informs and enriches Conservatism. Republicans need to allow African-Americans to claim an important measure of ownership of Conservatism. There are a number of Conservative blacks from Alan Keyes to Thomas Sowell that can help lead this movement.

The Lexus Runs Over the Olive Tree

Sunday, April 15th, 2001

Confucius was asked, “What say you of the remark, ‘Repay enmity with kindness?”’ And he replied, “How then would you repay kindness? Repay kindness with kindness, and enmity with justice.” Lun Yu (The Book of Analects).

A few years ago, Thomas L. Friedman penned a book about globalization entitled The Lexus and the Olive Tree. The title embodies a metaphor. The Lexus represents the wealth and prosperity brought on by the relentless forces of markets, capitalism, and free trade associated with globalization. The olive tree represents “everything that roots us, identifies us, and locates us in the world … a family, a community, a tribe, a nation, a religion or, most of all a place called home.” The olive tree can represent the values and institutions we wish to nurture with the wealth represented by the Lexus.

While wealth and connectedness symbolized by the Lexus and the olive tree can both be part of a healthy society, the forces of global markets often bring these values into conflict. The economic and regulatory walls erected by societies to protect communities and cultures make it difficult to partake in the growth and wealth production made possible by global markets. Modern markets depend on rapid communications and travel and the free flow of trade and capital. To reap the benefits of globalization requires that societies open themselves up to the world. Openness and market transparency are important values, but they can also overwhelm local cultures as McDonald’s restaurants, Disney World, and the cell phones replace local cultural symbols and practices. What pleases global markets is not always what is culturally, morally, or religiously uplifting.

Nonetheless, globalization is a moderating influence between nations. Economically interdependent nations entwined in trade are less likely to begin wars with each other. Even the forces of nationalism and cultural exclusivity, values associated with the olive tree that sometimes lead to war, are often modulated by economic imperatives. War is bad for business.

Those who support free trade with a brutal authoritarian regime like the People’s Republic of China (PRC) do so with the faith, borne out by some empirical evidence, that the requirements of global trade, the rule of law, financial accountability, and open communications, serve to undermine the Communist regime there. Even though authoritarian structures may appear solid on the surface, economic freedom eats away at the foundation of authoritarian regimes.

Others are less sanguine about the salutary benefits of trade. They recall Lenin’s prediction that the capitalist will sell you the rope with which you will hang him. However, the regime that Lenin begat is as dead as he is. It turns out that people are not particularly anxious to hang people with whom they can conduct profitable business.

In an important way, last week’s release of the 24 American crewmen from the reconnaissance plane, which was forced to land after a collision with a Chinese fighter jet, is evidence of the effect of trade. If the United States and the PRC were not engaged in extensive trade, the 24 crewmen would probably still be in China. When the North Korean government seized the reconnaissance ship the USS Pueblo in 1968, they held the crew for eleven months. Of course, the North Koreans to this day have an impoverished and insular economy. There was little economic incentive for the North Koreans to be accommodating.

In this case, the Chinese government realized that a prolonged incident would decrease the likelihood they would be admitted to the World Trade Organization. The US represents a large fraction of the export trade of China. If this trade were reduced it could cause economic turmoil in the PRC, which in turn could lead to political instability. It is probably not entirely coincidental that the day before the crewman were released Kmart informed the Chinese that American consumers were intent on boycotting goods from China.

By the same token, the US reaction was also modulated. Part of the restraint on Americans was the fact that the PRC held Americans in custody; part was an unwillingness to see the matter escalate to the point of affecting trade. Many of us Americans love commerce more than we hate communism.

Although we did not explicitly apologize, we said “very sorry” in such a way that the Chinese could deliberately misinterpret it as an apology. The US got the crewmen back through the use of what diplomats call “constructive ambiguity.” The imperatives of globalization overwhelmed other considerations. The Lexus mowed down the Olive Tree.

However, it is in the American parochial interest and in the interest of international trade and global economic prosperity if this incident is not simply forgotten in the service of economic amicability. Lawlessness and mendacity are not appropriate character traits of those who wish to be part of the world economic community. As Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post pointed out the lie that the American’s caused the plane collision “is a reflexive act of pride and pride is driving force for [the Chinese President] Jiang as he draws an even clearer line in the sand for Bush.” Trade may have restrained China’s hand, but the PRC is still intent on politically dominating the Pacific region.

Now that the American crewmen rest comfortably on American soil, the PRC government, particularly the Chinese military whose incompetence and intransigence was the cause of the aircraft collision and protracted detention of 24 Americans, needs to learn there are importance consequences to unlawful behavior. A price needs to be extracted so that similar actions by the Chinese in the future are discouraged. However, using trade as a weapon may be counterproductive, harming the Chinese people as opposed to the Chinese government. We want to drive a wedge between the Chinese people and their government, not push them together in common cause.

First, Americans should resume reconnaissance flights along the same flight paths they previously used. At least in the near future, we should devote the resources necessary to accompany to the aircraft with fighter escorts. The Chinese should be warned they within a mile of these reconnaissance it will be considered an attack on the plane and defensive action will be taken. The right to fly in international airspace needs to be asserted if it is to be maintained. International bullies should not be accommodated.

Secondly, the US needs to sell Aegis cruisers to the Taiwanese. The anti-missile defenses of the ships will partially offset the buildup in southern China of missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. Moreover, it must be privately made clear to the Chinese that the decision to make the sale was cemented by their illegal actions.

Globalization has made the world safer. However, the world is not yet given over entirely to commercialization. Sometimes more traditional responses remain necessary.

Dangerous Redistricting

Sunday, April 8th, 2001

The year after the decadal census is always an interesting political one with many opportunities for mischief. The growth and redistribution of population necessitates the redrawing of Congressional districts. The party that controls a state legislature has an important chance to cleverly redraw Congressional districts for its own political advantage. By concentrating areas that strongly vote for the opposition party into a relatively few districts where the opposition party can win by large margins, a party can create a larger number of districts where they can win with more modest margins. The party in control of the state legislature can thus increase the likelihood of gaining seats for itself in their Congressional delegation.

Of course, the courts constrain the shape of the Congressional districts from getting too ridiculously far out of control. Nonetheless, Republicans have gained control of more state legislatures and stand to gain a few seats in Congress simply by virtue of redistricting. Some analysts have suggested that Republicans could add 10-15 seats this year.

However, in a less well-known way, Democrats and Republicans have conspired to draw districts that create greater Republican, yes Republican, representation in Congress. The key to understanding how this is possible lies in appreciating the conviction by many African-Americans that the best way for black candidates to win is by creating districts where blacks constitute a majority. Since blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats and whites tend to be more divided, any majority-black districts will likely vote heavily for Democrats. African-American Democrats insist that the Democratic Party help them create such majority-black districts. Unfortunately, Republicans are all too happy to oblige.

The indirect consequence is to thin out Democratic votes from neighboring adjacent districts. This improves the chances for Republicans in the remaining districts. Despite the fact that Democrats used to exercise greater influence in district drawing, Republicans have a disproportionate number of seats.

The effect can be seen in the relative proportion of votes Republicans receive versus the proportion of Congressional seats won. In 1998, the last election I was able to conveniently find the statistics for, Republicans won 31,983,627 popular votes versus 31,255,470 for the Democratic candidates in Congressional elections. In other words, Republicans won 50.58% of the votes casts versus 49.42% for Democrats.

However, in 1998 Republicans won 225 versus 210 Congressional seats. If Congressional seats were won in proportion to the popular vote, Republicans would have five fewer seats. If you go through the numbers, this is far more deviation than could be explained by statistical fluctuation. The districts are drawn to both give Republicans and black Democrats more seats.

The concentration of Democratic voters in fewer districts is even more obvious in uncontested elections. There were 96 uncontested Congressional elections in 1998 and 60% of these were in Democratic districts. Democrats, in essence, squandered their votes in places were they did not really need to win by such large majorities. Florida represented a particularly egregious case. In 1998, 16 of 21 Congressional races were uncontested.

The other unintended consequence of this redistricting is that the parties become more polarized. When many Congressional districts are competitive, representatives are forced to be more moderate and to accommodate factions within their own district. When districts are either strongly Republican or strongly Democratic, extremes in both parties hold more sway. Moreover, this process insures black representatives will almost always be Democrats. This is unhealthy, unhealthy for both Republicans and African Americans.

Given Republican control of state legislatures and the continual insistence by Democrats on majority black districts, Republican chances to hold a very split Congress should improve. However, not everything that helps Republicans is a good thing.

Yawn

Sunday, March 4th, 2001

“Bill Clinton has been a disaster for the Democratic Party. Send him packing… You can’t lead a nation if you are ashamed of the leadership of your party. The Clintons are a terminally unethical and vulgar couple, and they have betrayed everyone who has ever believed in them.” — Bob Herbert, Liberal columnist for the New York Times, February 26, 2001.

Yawn… It is difficult to once again become outraged about former President Bill Clinton’s recent pardons. Perhaps I am just as spent as an elderly fire horse too old to respond just once more as a Clinton scandal rings the fire bell.

The pardon power is, and ought to be, part of the unfettered discretion of a chief executive. Pardon decisions must rely on the judgment of the executive. Elect an executive with a well-tuned conscience supported by a strong ethical base and you will reap gracious, thoughtful, and merciful pardons. Elect a different type of executive and you will be disappointed. Where’s the news? What did you expect? What did Bob Herbert and other Democrats think would happen if they, by their previous unflinching support, allowed Clinton to believe he was immune from the ethical constraints others must respect? It is hard to muster sympathy for the enablers.

Of course, there remain some Conservatives and Republicans who are not as spent as I am and are willing to pursue this scandal. But for me, interest requires something new or unexpected and so I grow bored. The trajectory of a Clinton scandal is so utterly predictable. We have lived through so many of them that it is now possible to generalize about Clinton scandal ballistics.

First, everyone is upset, even Democratic allies of Clinton. Second, Clinton supporters search for parallels, no matter how contrived or strained, of similar behavior by previous presidents. This strategy is designed to raise Clinton’s relative stature by dragging down the reputations of other occupants of the Oval Office. Third, Clinton supporters will give up defending Clinton’s behavior and claim that at least no law was broken. Or if a law was broken it’s not really important enough to punish the President in light of his progressive policies.

At the end, we are left with the distasteful notion that our only expectation of a president is that he remains in hyper-technical compliance with the law. Ethical or even respectable behavior is too much to expect. Or worse, we are saddled with the proposition that we can even ignore violations of the law if on balance we like a president. Relying on the phraseology of former Senator Patrick Moynihan, we will have “defined deviancy down.” But this is sad, old news. The latest pardon scandal is just one more example. Why get excited?

The only intriguing aspect of this latest episode is that since Bill Clinton is out of power, many of his former allies have miraculously transformed into his most vocal critics. Representatives Barney Frank and Henry Waxman, Senator Paul Welstone, and former President Jimmy Carter have all expressed chagrin and disappointment in Clinton’s pardons.

It is now clear that much of the defense of Clinton by Democrats during his term was his motivated by two feelings. The first is the principle that the enemy of my friend is my enemy. If Conservative Republicans were criticizing Clinton, there is a Pavlovian response among Democrats to defend Clinton. Second, and perhaps most importantly, the political prospects of Clinton were linked inextricably to Democrats in general. If Clinton went down in disgrace, all Democrats were likely to suffer in the polls. This was not an idle concern for Democrats. Political catastrophe was the punishment meted out to Republicans in the wake of the resignation of President Richard Nixon in disgrace. Guilt by association is not fair, but it often occurs in politics.

To some extent, Democrats have already paid a price for Clinton’s behavior. Al Gore lost the presidential election. With economic prosperity and relative peace abroad, but for the anvil of Clinton’s ethical problems dragging Gore down, Gore would have won by 10 percentage points. In the lament of Bob Herbert:

“[Clinton] has been president for eight years and the bottom line is this: For the first time in nearly half a century, the Republican Party controls the presidency and both houses of Congress.”

Perhaps part of the current venomousness by Democrats reserved for Clinton’s pardons represents pent up anger with Clinton. Democrats are exasperated at the Faustian bargain they accepted: Defend indefensible behavior by Clinton in order to rescue personal political fortunes. Now that Clinton’s political popularity is not so directly tied to other Democrats, their vision has considerably improved. No longer blinded by political ambition, it is now painfully clear to even highly partisan Democrats that the emperor has no clothes.

From Bakke to Atkinson

Sunday, February 25th, 2001

“The consideration of race as a measure of an applicant’s qualification normally introduces a capricious and irrelevant factor working an invidious discrimination. Once race is a starting point educators and courts are immediately embroiled in competing claims of different racial and ethnic groups that would make difficult manageable standards consistent with the Equal Protection Clause.” — Justice William Douglas, DeFunis v. Odegaard, 1974.

“Distinctions between citizens solely because of their ancestry are by their very nature odious to a free people whose institutions are founded upon the doctrine of equality.” — Justice Harlan Stone, Hirabayashi v. US , 1943.

The University of California System perpetually finds itself at the center of affirmative action controversies in college admissions. This is no accident. In 1973, Alan Bakke applied for admission to the University of California, Davis Medical School. The medical school had 100 positions available for incoming students. Of these, the medical school reserved 16 for minority applicants. Alan Bakke demonstrated that he had test scores and an academic record superior to minority students that had been admitted under the special program.

Bakke sued. The case worked its way up through the courts. In 1978, the US Supreme Court found that since race was the only reason that Bakke had been excluded from the special program, the University of California violated the Equal Protection Clause of the US Constitution. The Court did, however, leave open the possibility that race might still be considered as one factor in the admissions process. In particular, “race or ethnic background may be deemed a `plus’ in a particular applicant’s file, [so long as the applicant’s race] does not insulate the individual from comparison with all other candidates for the available seats.”

The University of California System nonetheless seems intent upon making sure that the college admissions process yields the appropriate number of students in different racial and ethnic groups. Seizing upon the wording of the Bakke decision, the University of California employed race and ethnicity as one additional factor in admissions. If race and ethnicity had remained a modest consideration only playing a part in borderline cases, splitting the difference between students with similar credentials, the policy might have continued indefinitely. However, this additional factor turned out in many cases to be a definitive one. At the University of California at Berkeley there was a time when the mean SAT (Scholastic Aptitude Test) scores between black and white students was 200 points out of a possible 1600. Since Asian-American students were statistically over-represented, they faced even higher barriers than whites did for admission.

Because of such abuse of discretion, the sense of justice among California citizens eventually caught up with the University of California. In November 1996, Californians passed Proposition 209, which read in part:

“The state shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.”

The Supreme Court granted the University of California the discretion to consider race, the citizens of California suffering under its abusive use terminated the discretion.

University of California President Richard Atkinson is now proposing to eliminate SATs as an admissions criterion in favor of a more “holistic” evaluation of applicants. Part of the problem with the test, according to Atkinson, is that is serves as a barrier to access for minority students. Atkinson talks of using SAT achievement tests (SAT IIs) as a partial substitute. This is disingenuous given that such achievement tests would favor students with access to more rigorous curricula, most commonly more affluent students.

No one believes that SAT tests or any other test is a means to completely and solely evaluate potential students. Any school that looks solely at SAT scores or scores from similar tests does itself a disservice. SAT tests cannot measure dedication, assiduousness, motivation and other character traits important in making maximum use of a college education. SAT scores do not measure musical or athletic achievement, which may be an important part of a student’s contribution to a school.

Nonetheless, elimination of the SAT test throws away important information. According to comparisons of SAT scores and college grades, SAT scores forecast approximately 25% of the college academic performance of students. High school grades and ranking, taken together, have about the same predictive value as the SAT. Standardized test scores and high school academic achievement are the best predictors of college success.1,2 Even with these measures, student performance cannot be completely forecast. It would, therefore, be unwise to dismiss the important information provided by SATs. More information, not less is required.

Ironically abandoning the SAT test may hurt minority students. Although, minority students have on average lower scores than white applicants, statistics from the College Board suggest that SAT tests actually overpredict minority performance in college. If other criteria could more accurately predict college performance, access for minority students could be reduced.

The likely reason that Atkinson is really proposing to eliminate SAT scores is to muddy the college admissions process with so much arbitrary discretion that Atkinson will be able to implement a covert racial spoils system. It would be very difficult to go to court and argue that any particular student has been arbitrarily treated if the judgment criteria are undecipherable or amorphous. The absence of clear standards hides racial or ethnic discrimination and allows it to survive scrutiny. If one really wants to have an effect on minority access to college education, the emphasis must be on the front end, in young childhood. Squandering efforts in the college admissions process by stacking the system merely covers a much larger wound with a tiny Band-Aid and ultimately does a disservice to those who preferential treatment is meant to help.


  1. Bridgeman, Brent, Laura McCamley-Jenkins, and Nancy Ervin, “Predictions of Freshman Grade Point Average from the Revised and Recentered SAT I: Reasoning Test,” College Board Research Report No. 2000-1. ETS RR No. 00-1, College Entrance Examination Board, New York.
  2. Wightman, Linda F., “Standardized Testing and Equal Access: A Tutorial,” Book Chapter in Compelling Interest , Eds: Mitchell Chang, Daira Witt, James Jones, Kenji Hakuta, sponsored by the American Educational Research Association and Standard University Center fro Comparative Studies in Race and Ethnicity, in press.