Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

Guilty of Perjury

Saturday, March 10th, 2007

There is great irony in the fact the Scooter Libby was convicted for lying to a grand jury about who he informed about the truth that Valerie Plame worked for the CIA and was responsible for suggesting that her husband Ambassador Joseph Wilson be sent on a fact-finding mission to Africa. On the other hand Joseph Wilson and his wife are enjoying book royalties, possible compensation for a movie story, and puff pieces in Vanity Fair, when virtually everyone of Wilson’s claims were certified as false by the 9/11 Commission Report. Indeed, the Washington Post concedes that one outcome of the entire affair is that “[t]he former ambassador will be remembered as a blowhard.”

There are at least two important lessons from this episode. Lessons that politicians appeared destined to be continually re-learn.

The first lesson from this political tragedy is that one never ever lies under oath. It does not matter whether or not there is a substantive underlying issue in question, perjury and obstruction of justice can and generally ought to be prosecuted. This mistake was largely responsible for the fall of President Richard Nixon and resulted in the impeachment of President Clinton.

When the Valerie Plame story broke, many wondered whether the release of Valerie Plame’s name violated the 1982 Intelligence Identities Protection Act. It turns out that under the provisions of the act Plame did not qualify for protection. This interpretation is given tremendous weight by the fact that Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald did not even charge anyone with this crime, though many have since admitted that the spoke of Plame’s CIA position. Indeed, the original source of the leak which appeared in an article by Bob Novak was Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. The original claim by Administration critics is that Valerie Plame’s name was released by the Administration as retribution against her husband. Actually, Armitage was no fan of the Iraq War. He released Plame’s name in passing as a way to explain how some as conspicuously indiscreet as Wilson would be sent on a sensitive mission to Niger. Despite Wilson’s initial denials, he was sent on his because his wife suggested his name to the CIA.

The second lesson is that decisions to appoint special counsels are almost invariably mistakes. Ordinary prosecutors are faced with finite resources and many potential crimes to investigate. They are consequently compelled to prioritize: to choose those crimes that are deserve government resources. They are forced to weigh the public benefit to the prosecutions against the costs. Special counsels, by definition, have a narrow focus and unlimited resources. This situation usually devolves to trail distorted decisions.

Even before Fitzgerald became the special counsel the Justice Department knew that Armitage had given Plame’s name to Novak. Fitzpatrick’s next step should have been to determine whether that revelation violated the law. Any reasonable reading of the relevant law would have concluded that no law was broken. Indeed, no one was ever charged with a crime from revealing the Plame’s name. The special counsel’s office could reasonably have closed up shop within months or weeks.

Instead, given a blank check for further investigation, Fitzgerald trolled for perjury by conducting grand jury hearings. This does not excuse perjury or obstruction of justice on the part of Libby or anyone else, but is does reveal the injustice of unconstrained and unaccountable prosecutions. Indeed, on the jurors, Ann Redington, while driven by the compelling logic of the law to convict Libby concludes that justice would be served by pardoning Libby.

This is a particularly sorry episode, of using the criminal justice system to adjudicate political disputes and on that , in the words of the Washington Post, “besmirched nearly everyone it touched.”

Union Fear of Democracy

Sunday, March 4th, 2007

When fighting the War on Terror or any war, there are always the conflicting priorities of individual liberties and the effective execution of the war. It seems that the trimming of the edges of civil liberties during the current conflict has been at best reasonable and at worst fairly minor excursions given the way wars have been executed in the past.

Some Democrats are bent out of shape at the interception of electronic communications between elements of Al Qaeda on foreign soil with Americans in the absence of warrant. The Administration has backed off a probably legal tactic, but what ever civil liberties might have been broached are small compared to World War II when all international communications were subject to warrantless interception.

Others are bothered at to the disposition of detainees at Guantanamo Bay. Are they prisoners of war? If they are, then they can be held to the end of the War on Terror, which may be indefinitely. If they are tried in criminal courts and they are prisoners of war, it violates the Geneva Convention. The issue of illegal combatants is complicated, but perhaps the detainees can best labeled as “pirates” under international law. Whatever one thinks about this issue, its consequences are small compared to thousands of Japanese Americans detained during World War II.

While much press attention and public argument have been devoted to statistically rare and extreme civil liberties questions, glaring civil liberties issues that can effect thousands if not millions are largely ignored. Recently, the Supreme Court has allowed to circumscription of First Amendment in the vicinity of abortion clinics and an expansive view of the states’ right to eminent domain.

Add to this list of assault on civil liberties, the recent law passed by the House of Representatives on a largely party-line vote. The bill is a payback by the Democratic Party for aggressive union support. Under current law, parties can request secret ballots for workers voting to organize a union. The new Democratic bill eliminates the right to a secret ballot, making workers subject to union intimidation. Since it is the unions who are pushing for this provision, it is clear that they are convinced that in many case workers left to the free choice would reject union advances.

Unions may be frustrated in their declining membership in the face of a massive switch from a manufacturing to a service-based economy. However, this is not sufficient reason to violate the cherished principle of a secret ballot.

Now labor supporters argue that companies can intimidate workers so the unions need this advantage to counter act company activities. The argument is self-refuting considering that an open ballot would make workers more subject to company intimidation. The whole idea behind the secret ballot was to originally protect workers from company retaliation. As a general rule, whoever wishes to eliminate the secret ballot is the party that hopes to gain by intimidation. It this case, it is the unions.

The bill will likely not survive the Senate, where a filibuster will probably kill the bill before it even comes to a vote. Even if it were to pass the Senate, President Bush would exercise a rare veto. In a sense, this a free vote for Democrats, they can payback unions, without actually being responsible for a bill that undermines democratic (this time certainly with a small “d”) principles. The cynicism makes Democratic protests about civil liberties in other contexts suspect.

Disappearing Deficit

Sunday, February 18th, 2007

During the 2004 presidential elections, Democrats tried to persuade the American public that job creation was the worst since the Great Depression and the country was in a downward economic spiral. In order to make the case, Democrats had to employ statistics creatively. We could no longer look at the unemployment rate, the traditional measure, because it was too good. Instead, they used other Bureau of Labor statistics that notoriously lag the economic growth that was beginning even in 2003 and 2004.

There was a downturn beginning in late 2000 and early 2001 as the country entered a mild recession. This was cyclical response to the growth at the end of the 1990s and the collapse of the “Dot.Com Bubble.” Then after the terrorist attacks of September 11, the downturn grew deeper as the national mood soured and the stock market plunged. The combination of a loose money supply provided by the Federal Reserve and President Bush’s tax cuts pulled us back to prosperity. Inflation stayed low, unemployment fell, the economy roared back and since 2003 stock market values have reached new highs. In 2004, the fullness of the recovery was not yet as obvious as it is now. Democrats can no longer complain that the overall economy was not doing well. Instead, they have to try to provoke class warfare with erroneous complaints that the benefits of economic growth have not been wide spread. These statistics on income and wealth inequality cited are just as misleading that those previously used by Democrats to disguise rebounding employment.

There is at least one other economic index whose rebound has been hidden. One of the largest complaints by the Democrats now was that tax cuts increased the federal deficit. Now the size of the deficits may be large, they are not large with respect to the economy. Indeed, as a fraction of the Gross National Product (GNP) they have already been decreasing. Unfortunately, relative measures, though more meaningful, are more difficult to explain. It seems now that federal receipts are growing so rapidly that the nominal deficit may soon disappear and the one remaining Democratic economic complaint will evaporate.

The value of the nominal federal deficit over last decade is shown below. This is a plot of the twelve-month running average in the federal deficit in billions of dollars. The month-to-month numbers are noisy. Note, that the plot shown is a “following” running average. The value for the current month is the total deficit for the last 12 months. This plot would tend to be a lagging indicator.


Federal Deficit - 12-month running average
The combination of loose monetary policies, spending restraint and growth accounted for the surplus in the latter half of the 1990s, President Clinton’s second term. The year 2001 would have seen a decrease in the surplus in any case, but after September 11, the plunge was precipitous. The budget deficit reached its largest value at the end of 2003. Since then the deficit has been steadily disappearing. Steve Conover of the Skeptical Optimist has been carefully tracking the federal deficit. In his plot below, he fits a trend to the budget surplus/deficit data since January 2005. By his extrapolation, the nominal federal deficit should disappear in the middle of 2008.
Skeptical Optimist Projection
The exact point of zero deficit depends on precisely how one does the fit. If one begins the fit in January 2004 when the deficit first began to decrease, the crossover point to zero nominal deficit occurs in 2009. The longer the fit period, the more statistically significant the linear fit and projection are. However, the shrinking of the deficit has been accelerating and since the twelve-month running average is a lagging indicator perhaps Conover’s projection is most accurate. Conover concedes noisiness in the extrapolation of current trends. This collapse of the federal deficit is amazing and a testament to the power of tax cuts. The deficit is decreasing despite an expensive war in Iraq, a period of little spending restrain, and the introduction of prescription drug plan for seniors, a new entitlement. It suggests that rapid growth is perhaps the only realistic way of balancing the federal budget, whether in real or nominal terms. You can tell that the economy is doing well when Democrats stop talking about it.The Democrats’ position has been out-of-phase with reality: complaining about unemployment just as employment accelerates or complaining about the deficit just as it is about to disappear. Are they equally as out-of-phase with respect to other issues?You can tell that Iraq is not going well, or is at least perceived as not going well, when the Democrats incessantly talk about it. Unfortunately, Democrats now have a vested political interest in failure in Iraq. It is not that they really want failure, but they are in the uncomfortable position of knowing that good news for Americans in Iraq is bad news for Democratic political ambitions. If the surge of forces in Iraq works, Democrats may find themselves conspicuously wrong again — just before an election. They will then have to rely on the traditional method of concealing and ignoring success.

Al Qaeda and Iraq Link

Saturday, February 10th, 2007

Given the current concern about whether or not there was reason to believe that Al Qaeda and Iraq had a relationship, it is instructive to view this news report by ABC. Lest anyone believe that the report was a product of Bush Administration misinformation, the report came from 2000 during the Clinton Administration:
Click here.

Choosing Failure

Sunday, January 28th, 2007

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently approved a resolution, 12-9, in a largely party-line vote, to oppose President George Bush’s plan to surge the troops in Iraq. The goal of the troop surge is to bring greater security to Iraq. Much of the resolution’s text is non-controversial. It calls for the eventual transfer of security responsibility to Iraqi forces. This is certainly the ultimate goal of the Administration. Further, no one can reasonably oppose the assertion that leads off the resolution that “maximizing chances of success in Iraq should be our goal.”

The Senate and Congress also have a positive responsibility to hold hearings and evaluate the President’s foreign policy. They can even responsibly conclude that the President’s policy is unwise. They could even decide that it is so unwise that they cut off funds. While they could not use legislative power to micromanage troop deployments, they certainly could cut funds for the Iraq War by a date certain.

In Congressional hearings and in public statements members of the Senate and Congress can advocate whatever policy they consider the most prudent. For example, contrary to her current position, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi while minority leader in 2004 urged more troops for Iraq.

However, a non-binding resolution officially rebuking the President’s decision is irresponsible. This resolution, if passed by the full Senate, merely undermines the troops in the field. Certainly, Al Qaeda and insurgents in Iraq view the resolution as a victory. By its nature, the resolution makes the successful execution of the troop surge less likely and endangers lives and violates the stated goal of the resolution of “maximizing chances of success.”

To appreciate the fact that this Senate action is pure political posturing of the most cynical kind, one only has to notice that the Senate followed dismissal of the President’s policy in committee with the confirmation of General David Patraeous by a whopping 81-0 vote in the full Senate. General Patraeous is not only tasked to carry out the President’s surge policy, he is an important architect of it. Voting against the surge and for Patraeous is measure of how unserious most of the Senate is.

As rash as the anti-surge resolution is, the most terribly disheartening recent news is the Fox News Poll that asked Americans whether they wanted the President’s surge policy to succeed. The question was not whether they expected the policy to succeed, but whether “you want the plan President Bush announced last week to succeed.”  Among Democrats 51% wanted the plan to succeed (the loyal opposition), 34% did not, and 15% were not sure they wanted the plan to succeed.

Let’s be generous and assume that the 15% listed as “don’t know” were confused by the question. Let us further assume that nearly half of the Democrats who said they did not want the plan to succeed accidentally selected the wrong response. Thus, by conservative estimate the percentage of Democrats who do not want the President’s plan to succeed is 20%.

If the President’s plan does not succeed it means the American military would suffer more casualties than it otherwise would. It would mean that many more innocent Iraqi citizens would die. Any even 36% of Democrats in the same poll conceded that if the plan fails, terrorists would be “encouraged to attack the United States again.”

A cynic could confidently conclude that one-in-five Democrats hate the President (or perhaps the country) so deeply and profoundly they would prefer all these negative consequences to Bush succeeding. It would be convenient if Democrats would refrain from providing evidence that nurtures such cynicism.

Income and Wealth

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Paul Krugman, op-ed writer for the New York Times and economics professor at Princeton University, once boasted about his algebraic understanding. Whereas most political and social commentators speak or write of unquantifiable philosophical notions, coming from an economic background, Krugman is adept at algebraic symbol manipulation. Economists try to model their social science on the physical sciences like physics or chemistry, whose universal language is mathematics. Indeed, Krugman was correct in writing, “There are important ideas in [economics] that can be expressed in plain English, … [b]ut there are also important ideas that are crystal clear if you can stand algebra, and very difficult to grasp if you can’t.” Krugman concedes his impatience with those less precise in thought and presentation than he fancies himself to be. The danger, of course, is that after having postured so, someone will challenge Krugman on his own terms.

Alan Reynolds, of the Libertarian Cato Institute, did not write Income and Wealth as a specific rebuttal to Krugman. However, Krugman has been so argumentative and prolific in writing about the economic demise of the middle class and poor at the expense of the affluent and has done so via the exploitation of sloppy statistics that he provides convenient and oft-mentioned examples of the misuse of statistics. Krugman’s professional background makes it impossible to plausibly plead ignorance to their misuse. None one who seriously wants to understand income and wealth and how it has changed over time in the United States, can be ignorant of the concepts explained by Reynolds in Income and Wealth.

The fundamental problem for Liberal economists is history. In the 1970’s under a regime of high tax rates, the economy suffered high inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment, and low growth. Then President Ronald Reagan arrived and slashed marginal tax rates by half. After a relatively short transition period, the economy radically improved with high growth rates, low inflation, low interest rates, and low unemployment. Clinton marginally increased tax rates but only modestly and, with the help of a Republican Congress, passed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Clinton’s free trade policies were in direct conflict with trade unions, a traditional member of the Democratic electoral coalition. The economy was buoyant in the 1990s. After the short recession caused by the attacks of September 11, Bush’s tax cuts have revived the economy. Moreover, those industrialized countries in Europe that have adhered to a high-tax strategy, the policy advocated by Liberal economists, are burdened with low growth and high unemployment. The Conservative prescriptions for the economy are conspicuously successful.

The response from the Left is to concede the high growth, low unemployment, low inflation, and low interest rates; but to argue a series of “Yes, buts.” Yes, but the real median wages have remained static for the last twenty-five years. Yes, but only the rich have experienced increasing incomes as the expense of the poor. Yes, but the rich have increased their wealth more than others. Yes, but income and wealth inequality have grown.

Unfortunately for the rhetorical convenience of the Left, in order to make such claims, it is necessary to make any number of rather simple errors. Reynolds systematically explains the real nature of the data. For example:

Real wages have only remained static if you use an obsolete measure of inflation. With more modern measures, median wages have risen by over a third.

Median wages only include the wages of those who are employed. In the late 1970’s, the base period often used for comparisons, unemployment was high. The least skilled and the lowest paid were laid off first, ironically increasing median wages for those still employed during that period. However, no one would reasonably want to increase unemployment to increase median wages.

Wages measure only a part of compensation. Medical and retirement benefits have become an increasingly large part of total compensation. Counting only wages neglects this important component. Also ignored are transfer payments to the lower income quintile such as Social Security or in-kind assistance like food stamps.

The Gini index is a broad measure of inequality. People often point to the increase in inequality as measured by the Gini index during the 1990s. Of course, it is often neglected that for technical reasons the Census Department altered the way it computed the index in the early 1990s. This resulted in a one time jump in the Gini index that did not reflect any change in the economy. Without this jump, the Gini index has remained relatively stable.

In measuring the distribution of wealth, many studies only include immediately accessible wealth, i.e., liquid financial instruments. Counting in this ignores the enormous increase in the wealth of the middle class from increasing housing values and increasing asset value of 401(k) or 403(b) retirement plans.

In addition, the demographic composition of the United States has aged dramatically over the last two-and-half decades. Typically, young people are rich in human capital, with the prospect of earning income over many years. Older people have less human capital, but have accumulated a lifetime of assets and savings. By conventional measures, the older people are wealthier than younger ones. Changes in wealth distribution in large measure represent a change in the age distribution rather than a direct economic change.

Reynolds explains that the single biggest discriminator on which households occupy different income quintiles is the number of people who work in the household. Two income households fill the top quintile, while the bottom quintile usually has no worker or only a part-time worker, perhaps a single mother. Family structure is highly correlated with economic success.

The media is too full of glib and incorrect assertions about who has and has not benefited from explosive economic growth of the last two-and-half decades. Reynolds sorts through the errors and the rhetoric in a readable style. And in the end who could disagree with his conclusion:

“No matter what one thinks ought to be done about taxes, spending, unions, immigration, trade, minimum wage laws, and so on, the first thing that needs to be done is to get the facts right. If that happens there will still be plenty of room for lively debates about all sorts of public policies. And they will be honest debates.”

A Loss for Maryland

Saturday, January 20th, 2007

Sometimes it is entirely rational to vote for an inferior candidate for public office if his or her election might affect the balance of power in a legislative chamber. Assume, for example that you largely agree with policies of candidate A. However, if the election of candidate A would aid the party with which one largely disagrees with, it makes sense to consider voting against candidate A. More could be accomplished by the party of one’s preference than by a single representative one prefers.

In the last election, the unpopularity of the Iraq War had this effect on Congressional Republicans. People could not vote for against the author the policy, President George Bush, so they used Congressional Republicans as a proxy. This combined with the facts that the Liberal leaders in the Congress like Representative Nancy Policy and Senator Harry Reid were deliberately inconspicuous and that many Democrats ran as conservatives made is easier from normally reliable Republican voters to switch tickets. Nonetheless, some Republicans were undeserving victims of the purge.

One obvious political casualty was Governor Robert Ehrlich Jr. of Maryland. The moderate Republican managed to earn a 55% approval rating in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one. After inheriting a surging budge deficit from the previous Democratic governor, Paris Glendening, Ehrlich managed to bring the state’s budget into surplus without raising taxes and while increasing aid to education. He also managed to finally start up an important transportation project, the Intercontinental County Connector, which had been lingering in legislative limbo for decades. Ehrlich is the sort of attractive and successful governor that soon finds himself on the short list of possible presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

Ehrlich is young enough and charismatic enough that he might be called upon for public service in the future, but for now he is one more casualty of Republican losses in 2006. Not only was this a loss for Republicans, it was a loss for the residents of Maryland as well.

Last week, Ehrlich threw a party to thank his supporters. Here are some photos from the event.

Bob Ehrlich Jr.
Bob Ehrlich Jr. speaks to crowd.
Kendal Ehrlich
Kendal Ehrlich waves to crowd.
Crowd and Ehrlich thank you party.
Supporters listen to Ehrlich.

America Alone

Sunday, January 7th, 2007

The world is not at a loss for doomsday scenarios. During the 1970s, we were all concerned that the world would end in a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union. We were told that would exhaust the world’s oil and food resources before the current century. New worries have ascended to the top of the list of worries recently. There is always the possibility of a large asteroid smashing into the Earth and wiping out most of the life on the surface, much as a similar asteroid probably accounted for the rapid extinction of dinosaurs. Evidence is accumulating that the Earth is warming auguring significant climate change effects.

Of course, the danger of nuclear war with the USSR was real and we fortunately avoided it. This does mean that the dangers of nuclear weapons have entirely been eliminated. Predictions of natural resource shortages have proven unduly pessimistic, or at least premature. While it is certain that a large asteroid will, at some time in the future, be on a collision course with the Earth, the probability of an impact in the foreseeable future is tiny. The net effect of climate change is still speculative.

To these concerns, Mark Steyn adds one more in his American Alone. Steyn’s thesis begins with unassailable fact that much of the Western World, particularly in Europe is in demographic collapse. In order for any society to maintain it population it must have a fertility rate of about 2.1, i.e., women on average have 2.1 children. The European Union, as a whole, suffers under a weak fertility rate of 1.47 with some countries like Italy and Spain suffering with anemic fertility rates of 1.33 and 1.28, respectively. Literally, there are places in Europe which will become depopulated of ethnic European in one or two generations.

There are at least a couple of consequences of a declining and aging population. First, the generous social welfare states of Europe are dependent upon an influx of young people to support the pensions and increased medical expenses of retirees. Without such an influx these countries face economic stagnation and declining living standards. Second, culture is a reflection of the integrated perceptions and attitudes of its citizens. A demographically young culture is innovative and energetic culture, whereas a demographically older culture is likely to be risk adverse and focused on maintenance of pension checks.

Now, it is always possible that the fertility rates in Europe will undergo dramatic reversal. However, these rates have declined over decades and it difficult to foresee a circumstance that would change current trends. Moreover, Steyn argues that the European social welfare states are themselves nurture suicidal attitudes to reproduction. He writes:

“…a variety of government interventions — state pensions, subsidized higher education, higher taxes to pay for everything — has so ruptured the traditional patterns of inter-generational solidarity that Continentals now exist almost entirely in the present tense culture of complete self-absorption.”

The Muslim population is increasing the Europe due to both immigration and the high-fertility rates of immigrant populations. Steyn questions whether Europe can undergo dramatic demographic change and not undergo dramatic political change. Thanks to lavish funding of radical mosques by Saudi Arabia and others, the Muslim populations in Europe and elsewhere are becoming radicalized. Certainly, there are moderate Muslims and they probably constitute a majority, but radical Islam represents the Zeitgeist of the Islamic world.

Moreover, the self-absorption of modern secular welfare states saps culture confidence. What Steyn calls “culture exhaustion” will make it impossible for Europeans to resist the Islamic demands for deference. In Steyn’s assessment, Europe’s demographic and cultural death spiral is too far along to reverse. Before the end this century, there will parts of Europe where Sharia law is enforced. Great societies are not killed, but rather commit suicide.

Steyn writes American Alone with cleverness and humor that belies his deeply pessimistic message. America may soon represent the only remnant of Western ideals, of liberty and personal independence. The only hope Steyn offers is that the example of Europe’s demise will make obvious even to the American Left, the necessity to resist the clash of cultures. After all, a world dominated by Sharia law as practiced by radical Islamists is not that will be hospitable to gay or abortion rights, the key concerns of the modern American Left. It is not one where women will be treated with equal rights and dignity. It will represent a return to the Dark Ages, before the Renaissance and before the Enlightenment. As Steyn asserts, “…much of what we call the Western World will no survive the twenty-first century, and much of it will effectively disappear with our lifetimes.”

Abraham Lincoln described the American Civil War as a great test of democracy and liberty that would determine “if any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.” The United States represents are far freer country with a far less protective welfare state. Nonetheless, the United States, over the decades, has moved steadily closer to the European model, though among modern industrial states it is still “exceptional.” If Steyn is correct in his assessment that European suicidal fertility rates are an inevitable outcome of the “Eutopian” welfare state, then the clash with radical Islam represents a test to determine whether a society so structured can long endure.

Honest and Decent

Saturday, December 30th, 2006

The adjectives “honest” and “decent” have been so repeatedly attached to the recently deceased 38th President of the United States, Gerald R. Ford, that they are rapidly becoming cliché. Nonetheless, these traditional mid-western virtues explain a considerable portion of both Ford’s success and failures as president.

Ford was the only un-elected president and openly acknowledged that fact. When he assumed the presidency after the resignation of President Richard Nixon on August 9, 2004, Ford explained, “I am acutely aware that you have not elected me as your President by your ballots, and so I ask you to confirm me as your President with your prayers.” The words are poetic and his intent genuine.

When President Nixon resigned the country was deeply divided, in the final years of a bitterly divisive war, and in economic distress (unemployment 6-9%;, inflation 10-12%). Perhaps there was not an adequate sacrifice offered to the gods of a harsh justice, but it was Ford’s inherent decency and longing to assuage the country’s pains that explain his decision to pardon President Nixon. Many at the time were frustrated of an opportunity to pursue Nixon further and the decision probably caused Ford the election in 1976 to President Jimmy Carter. Ford knew the likely consequences of his decision and put his vision of what the country needed over any political advantage.

In retrospect, the decision was probably a wise one. An indictment and trial probably would have lasted through his term and through the term of the next president. Any political energy required to deal with the nation’s problems would have been dissipated by such proceedings. The country would not have been able to begin to address any of the problems confronting it.

Ford’s conspicuous forthrightness and directness, perhaps unfairly associated with mental dullness, also helped heal a nation. After Nixon, the country needed a president that did not appear too clever or nefarious.

Ford’s decency also explains a good deal of his failures. Only a good man who mistakenly expects his own notions of good will and patriotism to be embraced by others and who came from the WWII generation would have believed that “Whip Inflation Now” program to exhort Americans to restrain their wage and price demands had any possibility of succeeding.

Only a person who spent his life in the House of Representatives and believes that all differences are splittable would have been so willing to overlook Soviet behavior and eagerly negotiate with them. This eagerness caused him to twist his normal good sense and argue that Poland was not dominated by the Soviet Union and to spurn Nobel laureate Alexander Solzhenitsyn, fearing that the Soviets would break off the warm relations of detente.

It was in Ford’s good nature, when he defeated Ronald Reagan for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976, at the end of the Republican National Convention, to call down Ronald Reagan to the platform with him. It was Ford’s moment, yet he extended the olive branch to Reagan and simultaneously undercut his own chances of victory against Jimmy Carter in the fall. Reagan was reluctant to come to the platform. After all, he had just narrowly lost the nomination. However, once he did, Reagan gave an impromptu speech which charged the Republicans present and gave everyone there the palpable feeling that in nominating Ford, they had just sellected the wrong fellow.

Ford was a caretaker president filling in between two elected president. Despite his shortcomings, Ford was welcome relief from President Nixon’s mendacity. Moreover, he served his nation’s interest far better than his successor President Carter. At least, he never embarrassed himself during his post-presidential years, as has Carter,  in self-righteous dotage

“Are there no prisons?”

Sunday, December 24th, 2006

In the opening chapter of Charles Dickens’s A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is solicited for a private donation during the Christmas season to “make some slight provision for the poor the destitute” since “many thousands are in want of common necessities.” In one of literature’s most memorable exchanges, Scrooge asks, “Are there no prisons? … And the Union workhouses are they still in operation?” When assured that prisons and workhouses still are in operation, Scrooge dismisses any personal responsibilities by claiming that “I help to support the establishments I mentioned.” In other words the existence of large institutions for collective provision, Scrooge believed, relieved him of personal responsibility for the poor.

Unfortunately, one of the consequences of well-intentioned government provision is to attenuate the personal responsibility we all have with regard to the material needs of others. The empirical evidence suggests that those who most persuaded of the efficacy government provision are those who, as a rule, feel less personal responsibility. Arthur Brooks, in Who Really Cares, has thoroughly examined the statistics on charitable giving and has found that Conservatives, particularly religious Conservatives, are far more likely to donate to charities and in higher amounts than Liberals, particularly secular Liberals. Moreover, Conservatives are more likely to volunteer their time and even donate blood at a substantially higher rate.

These statistics represent a generalization. There are very many liberals who are quite generous with their time and money and their efforts should not be ignored or disparaged. However, Brooks does not allow us to escape the conclusion that Conservatives are more generous. It is not because Liberals are inherently less empathetic or compassionate, it is because the political ideology of collective provision saps the moral necessity for personal action.

This fact mirrors itself in national differences with respect to European countries who have bought into the socialized world view. The United States provides a large amount of direct foreign aid, but other industrialized countries provide more relative to their Gross National Product (GDP). However, much of the assistance to foreign countries from the US come through private donations to private non-governmental organizations. Indeed, private assistance dwarfs US official development assistance by a factor of three and few doubt that such private aid is more efficiently dispensed. When all these sources are taken together, the US ranks among the highest in generosity relative to its wealth.

When the ghost of Jacob Marley visits Scrooge, Scrooge wonders why Marley is so burdened in death since he was such a good businessman. Marley’s Ghost shouts, “ Business! Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business. The dealings ofmy trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean ofmy business! [emphasis added]” This observation is consistent with the Conservative intuition. A Liberal version of Marley’s lament would have substituted “our” for “my” and therein lies the difference between Conservatives and Liberals.