Author Archive

Whipped Dog Daschle

Sunday, November 24th, 2002

Charity compels us to feel a genuine sympathy for Democratic Senate Leader Tom Daschle. He’s had a rough time of it recently. Last year his office was sent an anthrax-laden envelope that could have killed or seriously sickened members of his staff or the Senator himself. In early 2000, Daschle managed to gain control of the Senate for the Democrats by inducing Vermont Republican Senator Jim Jeffords to become an independent and vote with the Democrats for organizational purposes. Unfortunately for Daschle, Democratic Senate control lasted less than two years, as Republicans regained the majority in the Senate and extended their majority in House in the 2002 mid-term elections.

Daschle has long been criticized by Conservative pundits and commentators, but after the 2002 elections he was also roundly criticized by the Left for his failed leadership. Given a sluggish economy, Democrats had high hopes of maintaining and extending their hold on the Senate and re-taking the House. No wonder Daschle feels beleaguered. One receives the impression that Daschle feels like Senator Morris Udall who having lost in a primary to Jimmy Carter is reported to have said, “The people have spoken — the bastards.” [1]

What else can explain Dachle’s pouting and whining performance last week when he complained that criticism from Conservative talk show hosts was inducing threats on him and his family? Daschle specifically lashed out at Rush Limbaugh for calling him — now prepare your self — an “obstructionist.” Daschle complained that when he was labeled an obstructionist, “There was a corresponding, a very significant increase in the number of issues that my family and I had to deal with. And I worry about that.” Surely Daschle does not believe that the use of this pejorative induces violence, or he would not have used the same precise term himself to label his Republican adversaries.

It was not like Alec Baldwin who on national television said “We should go to Washington and stone Henry Hyde to death… And then we should go to his house and kill his family.” Baldwin was surely jesting, but these remarks were far more irresponsible than characterizing someone has an “obstructionist.”

Politics has always been filled with lively and colorful invective. Perhaps the British are the most adept at the quick insulting witticism. Of one opponent, Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once remarked, “The right honorable gentleman is reminiscent of a poker. The only difference is that a poker gives off the occasional signs of warmth.” Of another he said, “A crafty and lecherous old hypocrite whose very statue seems to gloat on the wenches as they walk the States House Yard.” It is too bad no one made a similarly clever observation during the Clinton perjury scandals.

Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was the recipient of many insults. She was labeled as the “Attila the Hen” by MP Clement Freud; the “Immaculate Misconception” by MP Norman St John-Stevas; and a “half-mad old bag lady” by MP Tony Banks. Reagan also had is poetically proficient detractors. Gore Vidal once described President Ronald Reagan as “a triumph of the embalmers art.” The Democratic Party used to have a cartoon at its web site showing George Bush pushing a elderly lady in a wheel chair down stairs. It was not particularly clever, but certainly not unexpected. [2]

Politics requires self-possession and a skin as thick as an elephant’s. Daschle seems to have forgotten how to laugh at himself and lost the ability to reconcile himself to both political victory and defeat. Perhaps Rush Limbaugh will mercifully ease up on Daschle. As Disraeli once said of another political opponent, “Debating against him is no fun, say something insulting and he looks at you like a whipped dog.”

[1] This quote is also attributed to Dick Tuck who lost a legislative race in California.
[2] Insult Monger.

Protecting the First Amendment

Sunday, November 17th, 2002

“The smaller the society, the fewer probably will be the distinct parties and interests composing it; the fewer the distinct parties and interests, … the more easily they will concert and execute their plans of oppression. Extend the sphere, and you take in a greater variety of parties and interests; you make it less probable that a majority of the whole will have a common motive to invade the rights of other citizens.” — James Madison, Federalist No. 10.

Freedom of speech is such a dirty and messy business. It means that we must endure drivel of the stupid, the hate of the evil, and the blather of the ill-informed, as well as learn from the learned and bask the beauty of the poet. Sometimes the value of this tradeoff is not appreciated, but it remains the foundation of stable democracy. A broadly recognized discipline of tolerance for the speech of others is a necessary component for stable rule by the consent of the governed.

At the time of the American Revolution, the long-term stability of democracies was an open question. Relying on the experience of the Greeks, many believed that democracies could only be successful in relatively small communities where the values and interests could be homogeneous.

The genius of the American Founding was that it turned this notion exactly on its head. The greatest danger is tyranny. The Founders understood that large expansive democracies are more stable, because a diversity of interests insures that no single faction or interest could assume sole control. The Founders also understood that one could not rely on good motives. Freedom, especially freedom of speech and the press, and the structure of government outlined in the Constitution allow ambition to counter ambition.

It is, therefore, with particularly poignancy that the end of this election cycle marks the beginning of the application of the “Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002,” the most ambitious attempt yet to regulate political expression. Champion of free speech, Senator Mitch McConnell is suing the Federal Election Commission over the constitutionality of the act. At this point, the case rests with the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. The case, however, will likely find its way the US Supreme Court for final adjudication.

This act is particular egregious in that it limits independent groups from running political adds within 60 days of an election — a time when political speech is perhaps most valuable and most deserving of broad protection.

Recent efforts at campaign finance reform are an abdication of the belief that speech is self-regulating. It posits a belief that there is such a thing too much speech, that Americans are unable to make decisions unless the government properly rations political speech. Campaign finance reformers are not, as they pretend be, populists. They do not exhibit the necessary faith in regular Americans.

The bromide used to defend campaign finance reform — reform that constrains the dollars that are spent or donated to campaigns — is that “money is not speech.” The phrase is easy to remember. It has only four words, which makes it simple to thoughtlessly and endlessly repeat. However, as with many rights, the right to use economic resources to speak and allow the speech to be heard by many is encompassed in the freedom of speech.

“Money is not freedom of the press,” but surely it would be unconstitutional to limit the amount of money a newspaper could use in the production of the paper, even if the editorial content is ignored. “Money is not freedom of religion,” but surely it would be unconstitutional to limit the amount of money that individuals could donate to support their churches, even if the nature of the religious observances were ignored. “Money is not the right to counsel,” but surely it would be unconstitutional for the government to limit the amount of money a person could pay his defense counsel.

The Cato Institute and the Institute for Justice are Libertarian advocacy groups that have filed a brief of amici curiae in the District Court case. Their brief offers a more expansive argument that even disclosure requirements on the part of individuals for donations constitute a violation of freedom of association. Disclosure can have a chilling effect on speech. Perhaps you do not want you neighbors or your boss knowing to whom you contributed. However, if you venture to the Federal Election Commission on the web today you can do a name search to find to whom your neighbor, your friend, or your employee made political contributions.

The argument against compelled disclosure relies heavily on the case of NAACP v. Alabama. In that 1958 case, the state of Alabama tried to compel that National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) to reveal its membership. It is obvious that having the state of Alabama know you were member of the NAACP in 1958 would have been intimidating. The US Supreme Court ruled that anonymity of association is a protected right:

“Petitioner, [the NAACP], has a right to assert on behalf of its members a claim that they are entitled under the Federal Constitution to be protected from being compelled by the State to disclose their affiliation with the Association.”

It is too much to hope for that the present US Supreme Court would be bold enough to recognize that this precedent allows donors to contribute anonymously (anonymous to the recipient as well) to political campaigns and to advocacy groups. It would probably be salutary if they just recognized that expenditures of independent advocacy groups are protected under the First Amendment, even within 60 days of an election.

A Choice Not an Echo

Sunday, November 10th, 2002

The election returns last Tuesday for the Republicans were statistically remarkable and they follow a statistically remarkable election in 2000. Given the state of the economy in 2000, models of election outcomes constructed by political scientists predicted that Vice-President Al Gore would win the election with 56 percent of the vote. Perhaps Gore was a particularly inept and unattractive presidential candidate. Perhaps Gore was just too burdened with the Clinton scandals. Nonetheless, the 2000 presidential election should not have even been close and Bush eked out a victory.

Traditionally, the president’s party looses in the Congressional elections two years after the presidential election. Sometimes they loose big, sometimes they loose small, but the president’s party rarely wins Congressional seats. Last week, the Republicans bucked this historical trend and gained a few seats in the House. Before this last election, no president flipped the Senate to his party. Last week, President George W. Bush and the Republicans did this. All this is even more remarkable given the fact the electorate is pretty well evenly split ideologically.

Perhaps Bush was just the fortunate recipient of the natural tendency of Americans to rally around the president in times of war. However, after a series of opportune elections that defy statistical tendencies, it is time to concede that the supposedly dim witted president has managed to outwit the politically sophisticated Democrats.

After the Republicans swept into control of the House of Representatives in the 1994 elections under Newt Gingrich, Republicans read too much into the results. There was not a major ideological shift. The electorate was just fed up with the Clinton Administration’s first two years. Republicans started talking about a new American Revolution, large reductions in the size of government, and started portraying themselves as radicals. Americans are too sated to be radicals and re-elected Clinton in 1996.

No matter how unprecedented and successful for Republicans, last Tuesday did not represent a sea change in ideology. It was the country saying that in times of war, it does not want divided ineffectual government. The country simply gave Bush a tentative free hand to see what he could accomplish.

To his credit, Bush sent out a memorandum to Republicans not to gloat. Bush has accumulated substantial political capital. He must be willing to use it, but use it wisely. Importantly he can get his judicial nominees to the floor of the Senate, but he would be wise to avoid ideological lightening rods, and push through a series of solidly Conservative nominees. He can push through tax cuts, but would be wise to do so in the context of fiscal spending discipline.

In some ways, the Democrats lost seats in the House and lost the Senate altogether, less because of ideology and more because they didn’t seem serious. Democrats managed to make a last minute substitution of Frank Lautenberg for the politically flagging Senator Robert Torricelli in apparent violation of the letter of election law in New Jersey. Democrats won the Senate seat handily, but for much of the country Democrats seem more interested in retaining power than playing by the rules. This view of Democrats was reinforced in Minnesota, when a memorial service for Senator Wellstone, who had died tragically in a plane crash, turned into a highly partisan political rally. Finally, Democratic Chairman Terry McAuliffe’s Ahab-like puerile efforts to unseat Jeb Bush in Florida diverted necessary resources from races that Democrats had a better chance of winning. The potential embarrassment of President George Bush was more important than helping other Democratic candidates in other states.

The Republican and Democratic Party web sites on November 9, 2002 provide a metaphor for the seriousness of the parties. The lead story at the Republican site was “Bush Hails Unanimous Passage of Security Council Resolution on Iraq.” The Democratic site’s lead story is that “SEC Chair Harvey Pitt Resigns in Wake of Scandals.” While the Republicans are concerned about war and peace, Democrats are worried about the chairmanship of the Securities and Exchange Commission. That issue surely has its place, but it seems rather anemic as a rallying cry.

When the Republicans faired poorly in the 1998 elections, I wrote:

“If anything, Republicans should learn that rather than just trying to slide to an election victory, they must articulate their vision. Sometimes, such forthrightness will lose, sometimes it will win, but half-hearted, timid Republicans will inevitably lose.”

The same advice applies to Democrats. They must have a vision beyond mere political victory. Democrats can now decide if they wish to tact to the Left, to be a “choice not an echo.” They will likely do so with Representative Nancy Pelosi as the House Minority Leader. If Pelosi leads the Democratic Party to the Left, particularly with regard to national security issues, they may be true to their principles, but the Democrats will spend some time in the political wilderness. That is not necessarilly a bad thing for Democrats in the long run.

Or Democrats could choose to follow the moderate Democratic route, the route outlined by the Democratic Leadership Council. After all, when Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton ran as moderates they won the presidency. Liberal candidates, George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis lost. Moderate Democrats are closer to sharing the mood and tempermant of the country.

Either choice is possible and defensible. The Democrats must decide who they are and what they stand for. Whatever they decide, Democrats need to be serious.

Facing Mecca in the Modern World

Sunday, November 3rd, 2002

In the fifteen century, Galileo Galilei was placed under house arrest by Catholic religious authorities for considering the Copernican proposition that the Earth revolved around the sun rather than the other way around. Galileo was the unfortunate victim of being right at the wrong time.

At that time, the Catholic Church was particularly insecure about its authority in interpreting Scripture. The Protestant Reformation was challenging the Church’s exclusive franchise. The Church was in no mood to broker additional dissent. The punishment of Galileo was really not about cosmology or physics, it was about asserting control on the arbitration of Scripture. Insecurity was at the root of intolerance.

Even today, arguments against evolution by some are, at their root, less disagreements about science and more disputes about worldview and authority. In a tempestuous world of moral relativism, religious belief and ritual can serve as an important ethical anchor. Evolution and a very old universe appear on the surface to be at odds with the Book of Genesis. To some, questioning Biblical authority on what is essentially a scientific and empirical question undermines Biblical authority on moral and ethical strictures.

The same disposition seems to be undermining Islam’s collision with modernity. The Great Mosque in Mecca contains the Kaaba, the cube shaped and most sacred Muslim shrine to which adherents must turn to pray. This direction is called the qibla. The classical definition of the qibla is the “direction such that when a human observer faces it, it is as if he is looking at the diameter of the Earth passing through the Kaaba.” Traditionally, the entrances of mosques also face toward Mecca.

In Mecca, as long as the shrine is in sight, facing the Kaaba for prayer is straightforward. As Islam spread from the Arabian Peninsula, the qibla became more difficult to determine. Indeed, this geographic question challenged Islamic mathematicians and cartographers of the Middle Ages and helped give rise to algebra and spherical trigonometry.

On the surface of the Earth, Muslims have known for the past twelve centuries, the direction to Mecca lies along a great circle route. The computation of this direction in the modern world is now relatively easy. Somewhat counter to an intuition formed by looking at maps with parallel longitude lines, from North America, the qibla points to the northeast.

When the Islamic Center was built on Massachusetts Avenue in Washington, DC in 1953, the Egyptian Ambassador was concerned because the center faced 56 degrees, substantially north of east. A quick check with a cartographer at the National Geographic Society confirmed the correctness of this direction.

However, the notion of using what some mistakenly believe is exclusive Western science is offensive to some modern Muslims. These Muslims refuse to believe the qibla from North America points toward the northeast. In 1993, Riad Nachef and Samir Kadi wrote a book arguing that the qibla from North American lies to the southeast. Nachef and Kadi believe that the notion that the qibla points toward the northeast “divides the word of the Muslims and perverts the Religion.”

There is no need here to argue geography. There is no question as to the qibla from North America. However, it is clear that some portion of Islam feels so threatened by modernity and so insecure in its position that it refuses to accept even geographic computations if they seem somehow tainted by Western influences. Insecurity is again at the root of intolerance.

The real irony is that conventional notions of direction that lead Nachef and Kadi to believe that the qibla from North America lies to the southeast is based on a particular map projection by the Flemish cartographer Gerhardus Mercator. Medieval Islamic mathematicians knew better.

Reference:

Abdali, S. Kamal, The Correct Qilba, 1997.

Paul Wellstone

Sunday, October 27th, 2002

Ours is sometimes an age that seeks to avoid honest confrontations. Edges are blurred, fine distinctions overlooked, and disagreements avoided. Bi-partisanship has come to mean pleasant accommodation, rather then unprincipled compromise. Principles have sharp, honed edges, they incorporate important distinctions, and they compel us, at times, to disagree noisily. There are times for compromises and splitting differences, but on important issues a healthy polity requires principled, forceful, and joyful partisanship. It is, therefore, with great sadness that we mark the untimely passing of the Senate’s most statistically partisan member, Paul Wellstone, of Minnesota.

The dictionary suggests that the defining quality of a partisan is that he is so biased that he cannot not weigh things equitably. This is far too narrow a definition. Partisanship can degenerate into blind allegiance, but in its highest form, partisanship implies fervently held beliefs and principles. Wellstone was one of the few true Liberals left in the Senate. He gladly advocated socialized health care, opposed President Bill Clinton’s welfare reform, avoided tax cuts he feared would hobble his vision of an energetic federal government, fought the moderating influences of the Democratic Leadership Council, voted against the Gulf War in 1991 and recently voted against authorizing President George W. Bush to use force against Saddam Hussein. While others hid behind labels of “moderate” or “progressive,” Wellstone was an unapologetic “Liberal” with a capital-L.

It is hard to know who will assume Wellstone’s place as the Liberal conscience for the Senate. Senator Edward Kennedy’s corpulence is too easy to use as metaphor for bloated government, Senator Jon Corzine of New Jersey is frankly too wealthy to possess the common populist touch, while Senator Hillary Clinton’s ambition is too unseemly. Perhaps, Tom Harkin of Iowa is the logical candidate; though he would be the first to concede that he lacks Wellstone’s cheerful energy.

Wellstone has often been called the first 1960’s radical in the US Senate. There is merit to this proposition, but he differed from many 1960s radicals in an important respect. He loved America and Americans. Wellstone sought to evoke the best in Americans. He did not become an angry scold. If America was not what he wanted it to be, Wellstone believed America was not living up to its ideals and its callings. It just needed to be nudged and cajoled into the right direction. Other radicals would see a problem like poverty in America and conclude that it was just one more piece of evidence that the United States was an irremediably despicable, racist, and evil country. Wellstone was so convinced of the goodness of average Americans, he believe they only needed to be introduced to a problem and their consciences would do the rest. He wanted a government as good as its people.

In a recent, television interview with Bill O’Reilly, Wellstone was asked about how much effort the United States should make in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. O’Reilly was concerned that the money would be squandered. Though Wellstone argued that it is in the US interest to provide economic aid to win the support of Afghani people, his first response was to remind us shamelessly that America was a great and “good” country. The United States should aid the Afghans, because it was simply the right thing to do. Geopolitics was important, but so is doing the right thing.

Like all people, Wellstone could not always live up to his highest aspirations. After promising constituents that he would only serve two terms, he was running for a third term in the Senate. The Left was upset with Wellstone because his stance against war with Iraq was not as outspoken in 2002 when running for re-election as it was in 1990 and for his vote for the “Defense of Marriage Act.” Jeff Taylor of the Left’s CounterPunch.com argued that Wellstone was “a case study to use when looking at the corrupting effects of hanging onto power for too long.” That’s far too harsh and reflects precisely the mean-spiritedness that gives partisanship a bad name.

It is only by disagreeing with intelligent and passionate adversaries that we can confidently hone our own arguments. For Conservatives, Paul Wellstone’s intelligent debates provided such an intellectual whetstone. Conservative arguments will be consequently duller. That’s not so bad for a PhD political scientist, who used to playfully point out that he scored less than 800 combined on his math and verbal SATs.

Containment or Appeasement?

Sunday, October 20th, 2002

In the aftermath of World War II, the United States’s erstwhile ally Soviet Union was aggressively extending its sphere of control mostly through Eastern Europe by establishing totalitarian puppet regimes. While at the same time, the Soviet Union was seeking to destabilize other countries. The United States and the West were facing an important strategic challenge. The memory of Neville Chamberlain’s failed policy of appeasement against the Nazis was still fresh. Based on this analogy, it seemed that avoiding the confrontation with aggressive tyrannical regimes — appeasement — was short-sighted and counterproductive.

At the end of World War II, the United States also had a nuclear monopoly. Hence, there were some who argued that the United States should militarily overthrow the Soviet regime, while it still could. To pursue this policy would have been difficult. The Soviet Union was a large continental power. Either there would be massive American casualties like those experienced by the French and the Germans when invading Russia or nuclear weapons would have to devastate the Soviet Union with incredible numbers of civilian casualties.

Perhaps out of necessity, perhaps out of wisdom, in 1947 American diplomat George F. Kennan, in a famous article entitled, “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” in Foreign Affairs magazine outlined a long-term policy of “containment.”

Kennan argued that the Soviet Union was driven by a commitment to an ideology certain of its ultimate success. This ideology posited, “that capitalism contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Soviet leaders believed that “truth is on their side and they can therefore afford to wait.” Setbacks, even large ones, could be overlooked because victory would ultimately come. There was, therefore, less immediacy in Soviet aggression and expansionism.

“In these circumstances,” Kennan argued, “it is clear that the main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies.” Kennan believed that the centralization of political power was the fatal flaw of the Soviet Empire. The brutal regime had destroyed any popular support and ultimately political instability would undermine the regime.

Which lesson of history do we apply to Hussein’s regime in Iraq? Is the regime more like the Soviet Union to which we apply an analogous policy of containment? Or, would containment in the case of Iraq resemble the failed policy of appeasement against Nazi aggression?

The argument for containment holds that even if Saddam Hussein manages to hold on to power indefinitely, eventually, he will die. Containment, it is argued, will keep Hussein in his box until time inevitably brings about regime change. Hussein is a rational player and the costs of aggression can be raised high enough to maintain the effectiveness of containment.

In Kennan’s original thesis outlining the intellectual case for containment, he was careful to draw a distinction between ideologically driven regimes with perhaps tyrannical rulers and tyrannical, self-centered rulers like Napoleon and Hitler for whom ideology is only a convenient fig leaf. For the latter, there is an immediacy and urgency to build an empire to serve the greater glory of the ruler. Moreover, in such cases the regimes will collapse when defeated. There is no underlining belief or ideology to maintain resistance once the leader is vanquished. As originally conceived, Kennan’s containment policy was specifically not directed toward regimes like Hussein’s.

In addition, depending on the rationality of Hussein to act in his own self-interest is not a strong or reliable foundation upon which to build a long-term foreign policy. If Hussein always acted in his rational self-interest, he would not have fought a war of attrition against Iran for so long. If he were truly rational in the conventional sense, he would not have attempted to assassinate President George Bush (41) when Bush visited Kuwait in 1993. Hussein had just suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of a superior American military force. If he had succeeded in killing Bush in a fit of pique, it is possible that the US would have initiated a massive response that would have toppled his regime. Over the last ten years, he has fanatically sought weapons of mass destruction in the face of international sanctions. As a consequence, Iraq has forgone an estimated $50 billion in oil revenue. This money could have both improved the life of Iraqis and cemented Hussein’s control of Iraq.

Those who urge containment minimize the associated risks. Even though containment was ultimately successful against the Soviet Union, it was just barely so. Containment certainly took much longer than the ten to fifteen years originally anticipated by Kennan. There were times when the containment policy nearly catastrophically failed in a nuclear holocaust. If a Joseph Stalin lead the Soviet Union, rather than a Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban missile crisis, it is very possible that there might have been an horrific nuclear exchange. Moreover, a legacy of Cold War containment was stunted economic growth in Eastern Europe as well as a fractured and unstable Middle East.

Those who urge attacking Iraq before the threat grows worse, must acknowledge that in the short-term the risks to American security will be higher. However, a threat postponed is not a threat avoided or even diminished. It is unlikely that any policy of containment will keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of Hussein in the long run. A policy of containment will increase the probability of a long-term threat to the Middle East as Hussein continues his deliberate efforts to destabilize the region by subsidizing terrorism.

Ten years ago after the Gulf War, it was possible to conclude the Hussein’s regime might quickly collapse. Reasonable people could conclude that there was no need to use force to disarm him and his regime. In retrospect, it might have been wiser to push against the Iraqis a little longer. If we do not deal with Hussein’s regime shortly, ten years from now we may view today as a similar opportunity squandered.

Political Peace Prize

Sunday, October 13th, 2002

“Peace is not an absence of war, it is a virtue, a state of mind, a disposition for benevolence, confidence, justice.” — Baruch Spinoza.“Even peace can be purchased at too high a price.” —Benjamin Franklin.

Any president has an important advantage when he runs for re-election. He has the ability to use the trappings of office to lend prestige and credibility to his candidacy. No one in recent memory has squandered this advantage in such a spectacular way as Jimmy Carter. In 1980, he lost re-election in a landslide by 489 to 49 in the electoral vote and nearly 10 percentage points in the popular vote. Rarely has this country been so united than in its overwhelming and unequivocal rejection of Jimmy Carter’s presidential leadership.

Since then, Jimmy Carter has devoted his time to humanitarian efforts. Through the Carter Center, Carter pursues his vision of peace and health programs. Many believe that Carter is a model ex-president. A cynic might argue that the American people anticipated how good an ex-president Carter would become and in 1980 hastened him into that role.

Carter’s presence overseas has sometimes been salutary as he helped monitor multiparty elections, though sometimes he was disappointed as when his pal Sandinista Daniel Ortega lost in Nicaragua. Subsequent presidents have often been annoyed when Jimmy Carter self-righteously interjected himself into international affairs. Carter took it upon himself to urge the United Nations not to support the US efforts to expel Iraq from Kuwait. He once intervened on behalf of Yasser Arafat to persuade the Saudis to resume funding of Arafat after his ill-judgeded support of Hussein in the Gulf War. Even the Democratic Clinton Administration was so concerned about Carter’s undisciplined approach to Haiti that they sent Colin Powell with him, perhaps to act as adult supervision.

In something of a surprise decision, the Nobel Committee awarded the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize to Carter. In 1978, the Committee selected Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin for the peace prizes for the Camp David Accords that brought peace between Israel and Egypt. Carter helped broker the deal between the two leaders. That would have been a logical time to award Carter the peace prize.

This year, the prize had barely been awarded when the Nobel Committee Chairman Gunnar Berge explained that the selection of Carter “should be interpreted as a criticism of the line the current [Bush] administration has taken…” Like a petulant, ill-tempered child, Berge described the selection of Carter as “a kick in the leg to all that follow the same line as the United States.” A couple of committee members attempted to distance themselves from this interpretation, but according the BBC, Nobel Committee member, “Gunnar Staalsett said he fully supported the chairman’s remarks and agreed that the citation was indeed a criticism of Mr. Bush.”

By revealing the nature of the selection of Carter, members of the Nobel committee had incredibly devalued the peace prize and any indirect message they were trying to send. It was not what Carter had accomplished for peace that was being recognized, but rather Carter was being consciously exploited in a political disagreement with the policies of George Bush. If there were no George Bush, Jimmy Carter may very well have never won the peace prize.

The Nobel Committee has awarded the peace prize to a number of deserving individuals such as Martin Luther King, Jr. and Mother Therea. Nonetheless, the Nobel Committee over the last century has overlooked obvious candidates for the peace prize like Mahatma Gandhi, who expelled the British from India through non-violent civil disobedience, Alexander Solzhenitsyn who documented to the world the horror of Soviet prisons camps, or Armando Valladres, the Cuban poet who endured Cuban torture and imprisonment. While at the same time, the committee has made some rather conspicuously awful and immoral selections for the peace prize like Yasser Arafat, the Middle East’s enduring terrorist and Le Duc Tho. Tho was awarded a peace prize for the Paris Peace accords he violated at every opportunity. At least Tho refused the prize. There are some hypocrisies that are too large for even brutal communist leaders to swallow. Sometimes, awards are maliciously frivolous like the peace prize for United Nations Secretary Kofi Annan, who must have been Neville Chamberlain in a previous life.

The selection of Carter was not so much a mistake or error in judgment. He deserves recognition for sincere efforts at social justice. God knows he believes he deserves it. The decision was, however, a deliberate abuse of the award.

When President Jimmy Carter left office, the Cold War was still intense. The world had resolved itself to what John Kennedy had referred to as a “long twilight struggle” between the East and West. Nine years later, the Cold War ended with the economic collapse of the Soviet Union engineered by the relentless pressure of the next American president. This same American president demanded at the foot of the Berlin Wall of the Nobel peace prize winning Mikhail Gorbachev that he “tear down this wall.” However, the Nobel Prize Committee has its collective eyes too clouded with ideological cataracts to recognize that Ronald Reagan deserves the peace prize.

Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Where It Ought to Be?

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2002

In the nineteenth century, investing in publicly traded stocks was properly considered a highly speculative enterprise. There was little reliable independent information and businesses tended to hide bad economic news. With the collapse of Enron and WorldCom, we have recently become reacquainted with this behavior. Nineteenth century investors wisely preferred to invest in corporate bonds that promised regular payments backed by real collateral. Information about the stock values of companies was so sparse and unreliable that it was often impossible to assess the current general health of business stocks.

In stepped journalists Charles Dow and Edward D. Jones. In 1882, they formed Dow, Jones, and Company. The company started publishing subscription newsletters with business information. The newsletter eventually evolved into the now famous Wall Street Journal. In 1884, they created the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a measure of general stock market performance. The original index consisted of only 11 companies, including nine railroads. There was a certain logic in heavily weighting railroads. Not only were railroads large industrial enterprises but the economic performance of railroads also indirectly reflected the fortunes of other companies that shipped via railroads.

Over time, the list of companies grew and changed radically. Presently 30 are included in the index. Many of them like Boeing, Hewlett Packard, International Business Machines, and Intel reflect the changing nature of the economy in the past one hundred years. Now there are many more market indices. The Standard and Poor’s 500 represents the collective performance of 500 of the countries biggest companies. The Wilshire 5000 is so large that it measures essentially the returns of almost all publicly traded US companies.

The present value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is that it provides an exceptionally long time series of economic performance. Whereas the Dow began in the nineteenth century, the Wilshire 5000 began in only 1974. Hence, even though the Dow may be a narrow and imperfect index, it is the best we have to monitor and study long-term variations in stock performance.

Figure 1 is a log plot of the Dow Jones Industrial average since its inception. The most conspicuous feature of the time series is its relentless growth. There is a clear persistent dip in the index during the Great Depression in the 1930s. However, decade-in-and-decade-out the stock market and the Dow yield strong positive returns. Plotting the index on a log graph emphasizes the variations. If plotted on a linear scale, the general upward movement in value would be ever more conspicuous.
This increase has been so persistent and the rise from January 1980 to January 2000, when the market peaked at 11,700, was so rapid that some have become overly optimistic. In 1999, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett suggested that people now realized that in the long run stocks provide larger and more reliable returns than other investments. This new understanding would drive up prices. Glassman and Hassett predicted that, “Stocks are now, we believe, in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground — to the neighborhood of 36,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After they complete this historic ascent, owning them will still be profitable but the returns will decline.” Given that the Dow is now below 8,000, it does not seem likely that we will see the Dow at 36,000 any time soon. The recent plunge in the market has devastated the retirement plans of many and a subtle fear is becoming palpable.

While the effects of the decreases in stock values since 2000 are very real, a closer examination offers modest room for hope. Figure 2 is a log plot of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1980 to the present. From 1980 to about 1995, the values of the stock market increased at a rate of over 10% per year. Then in 1996, the stock market literally exploded upward in what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan then described as a fit of “irrational exuberance.” The straight line drawn in Figure 2 shows the increase in the Dow if it had simply followed the same healthy growth rate it had experienced from 1980 to 1995. The stock market would be approximately where it is right down. Holders of stocks would not be appreciably richer, but they would certainly feel less anxious.

Markets are never sufficiently disciplined or wise to grow along easily predictable straight lines. Markets that overshoot the long-term growth rate will likely undershoot that same growth rate for a while. The pain is not over. Nonetheless, the fact that the Dow is about where we might expect it to be given its long-term growth rate offers a least a small ray of comfort for those who have lost many paper profits over the last few years. Or perhaps this is just “whistling past the graveyard.”

Does Daschle Want Some Cheese With His Whine?

Sunday, September 29th, 2002

“Why was the U.S. Senate so fixated on protecting jobs instead of protecting lives? The U.S. Senate’s refusal to grant this president and future presidents the same power that four previous presidents have had will haunt the Democratic party worse than Marley’s ghost haunted Ebenezer Scrooge. Why did they put workers’ rights above American lives? Why did that 2002 U.S. Senate — on the one-year anniversary of 9/11 — with malice and forethought, deliberately weaken the powers of the president in time of war? And then why did this Senate — in all its puffed up vainglory — rear back and deliver the ultimate slap in the face of the president by not even having the decency to give him an up or down vote on his bill? This is unworthy of this great body. It is demeaning and ugly and over the top.” — Senator Zell Miller, Democrat Georgia, as cited by the Weekly Standard, October 7, 2002.

In Trenton, New Jersey, September 23, 2002, at a campaign stop, President George Bush urged the Senate to pass the Homeland Security Bill. Bush’s words:

“I asked the Congress to give me the flexibility necessary to be able to deal with the true threats of the 21st century by being able to move the right people to the right place at the right time, so we can better assure America were doing everything possible. The House has responded, but the Senate is more interested in special interests and not interested in the security of the American people. I will not accept a Department of Homeland Security that does not allow this president, and future presidents, to better keep the American people secure. And people are working hard in Washington to get it right in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats. See this isn’t a partisan issue. This is an American issue.”

Bush foolishly and unfairly used the phrase, “not interested in the security of the American people” which can legitimately be interpreted as suggesting that the Senate leadership does not care about security. However, the entire context of the speech also emphasizes bi-partisanship and that “both Republicans and Democrats” had been working together. The speech was certainly not has harsh as some have portrayed. Nonetheless, there was certainly enough ammunition for political hacks to venture onto the cable news programs to fret about Bush “politicizing” defense and security issues.

One would have expected that someone of the stature of Senate Leader Tom Daschle to have delegated this sort of rough-and-tumble argument to others. He could have at least expressed his dissatisfaction in his usual quiet manner. Perhaps it was so much more satisfying to delay Senate business and storm to the Senate floor to whine that Bush had politicized the debate. Rather than maintaining a detached dignity, Daschle exploded in am embarrassing fit of pique. The press painted a picture of the normally dormant Daschle erupting in a lava of complaint.

If this were not enough, Democratic, Senator Robert Byrd, who now that Senator Strom Thurmond is retiring is vying for the title of “Senator Who has Served Too Long,” rose to call Bush’s words “despicable.”

All of this, of course, occurred in a context when, former Vice-President Al Gore, who was perhaps setting himself up for a presidential bid in 2004, wondered out loud why Bush was asking for authorization to use military force “in high political season.” Are we to suppose that important issues should be dealt with only in odd-numbered years? Democratic Congressmen Jim McDermott, who recently visited Iraq, informed us that Bush would lie to get us into a war with Iraq. Others have suggested that Bush’s focus on Iraq it a cynical attempt to draw attention away from a weak economy. Or there are the old standby arguments that Bush wants to go to war with Iraq to help the oil industry or to complete in unfinished job of his father in the Persian Gulf War. The polarization of the debate occurred long ago.

Of course, politicians politicize. That is what they are supposed to do. That is what they should do. If Daschle did not want the Iraq issue to be politicized, why did he and others insist that the matter should be submitted to Congress for debate? You can only avoid politics if there is no room for disagreement.

The real problem is that the issues of attacking Iraq and going after Al Qaeda ought to be debated and argued about. It ought to be a political issue. Hashing out these decisions in public is what democracies are all about. There are principled reasons to question Bush’s approach to these issues. Perhaps we ought to resign ourselves to live with Saddam Hussein equipped with nuclear weapons and hope that our own weapons arsenal will act as a sufficient deterrent. Perhaps not. Let’s argue about it.

There are some Republicans who have misgivings, but Democrats appear to be burdened with the most doubts. Except for a few politicians like Senator Edward Kennedy and Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Democrats have been so worried about their prospects in the upcoming elections that their voices have been muted. Even formerly loud and articulate voices like Paul Wellstone’s have fallen almost silent. In 1990, he spoke out passionately against the Persian Gulf War. Now that he is involved in a tight election battle, his sense of moral indignation seems to have fled him.

Daschle is boxed in. The resulting sense of frustration is probably partially responsible for his eruption on the Senate floor. You can tell that like in 1990, in his heart of hearts, he wants to oppose Bush on Iraq, but he does not want to pay the political price, especially with control of the House and Senate in question. Daschle would rather change the argument to who is politicizing what. It is hard to understand why one would want to go into politics if not to debate the important issues of the day. What could be more important than the debate about war? For most Democrats, the Iraq issue is certainly not a “profile in courage.”

The Role of a Soccer Referee

Sunday, September 22nd, 2002

There is an apocryphal story about three soccer referees discussing the different ways they officiate games. In humility, the first referee says, that he calls them as he sees them. Reflecting a little more confidence, the second referee says he calls them as they are. Possessed of even more epistemological certitude, the third referee claims that they are not anything until he calls them. Of course, the story is a way for referees to use humor to deal with the stresses of constantly making public decisions that are under constant critical review by passionate partisans. Any decision generally upsets at least half the spectators.

In many ways, being a children’s soccer coach is more conspicuously rewarding than being a referee. A coach meets the kids, learns their names, answers their questions, shares their joys, and wipes away their tears. Years later, kids will remember the names of their favorite coaches; much in the same way they might recall a teacher. Referees are like furniture. The best one can hope for is to go unnoticed. Few people remember games that are well-officiated, but everyone remembers the critical call that was missed or the game that got out of control.

The pleasures and rewards of soccer officiating are more subtle and sublime. Referees are responsible for maintaining a safe playing environment and enforcing the rules of the game. In the midst of parents, some of whom are living vicariously through their own children, and coaches who want to win, a referee is expected to maintain calm impartiality. Among children and sometimes childish adults, referees provide adult supervision.

Tentative new referees are sometimes confused about the appropriate persona to assume. Are soccer referees to be stern, formal, and judge-like, speaking only sparingly to create an air of authority or does formality unnecessarily increase tension? Should referees be gregarious and friendly to maintain a calm and soothing atmosphere or does pleasantness undermine authority?

The truth is that no one can referee outside of their essential character for very long. Reserved and technically oriented people are likely to appear to be stern referees. Naturally gregarious people cannot help but talk casually to both players and coaches. A person can best referee if he remains true both to his own personality and to the spirit of the game.

Most importantly, a children’s soccer referee has a pedagogical role, not only about soccer, but how to interact with others. How referees talk with and treat children, parents, and coaches with dignity and respect in stressful situations teaches more powerfully than words can. Since a referee is the senior authority at a game, his or her example is perhaps the most powerful. The fundamental responsibility of a children’s soccer referee is to help mold the character of the next generation, the same responsibility everyone else has.