Author Archive

True Proportionality

Friday, July 28th, 2006

One of the tenets of Just War theory is the principle of “proportionality.”  Proportionality, or the lack there of, has become the chief focus of criticism of Israeli actions in Lebanon. Russia and the European Union claim the Israel has escalated the fight to a “disproportionate act of war.”  Speaking for Italians, the Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D’Alema observed, “We have the impression that this is a disproportionate and dangerous reaction in view of the consequences it could have…”

Hezbollah in Lebanon started the conflict by launching missiles into northern Israel and capturing soldiers along the Lebanon-Israel border and has made military response difficult by the deliberate intermingling of combatants and civilians. Nonetheless, the disproportionality argument rests on the fact that Israel has taken more lives than Hezbollah, many of them civilian. This naive argument misunderstands proportionality in its entirety. Moreover, it implies a sweeping misinterpretation that reduces proportionality, in the end, to mere revenge.

If Hezbollah kills two Israeli civilians through a rocket attack, it is not a proportional response to kill two Lebanese civilians. That is vengeance and retribution. These are principles of action specifically prohibited as legitimate justifications for the use of force under Just War Theory.

Proportionality is a broader, more complex principle. It is not the simple math of tallying injuries to achieve a rough parity. By its nature, war involves death and destruction. The principle of proportionality requires that the good to be achieved exceeds the costs in lives and property and that the minimum force possible is used.

The calculus of proportionality cannot be reduced to entries in an accountant’s ledger. Lives are invaluable, but so are non-tangible goods like liberty, freedom, security, political equality, self-determination, and justice. How the loss of life and suffering balance other values is not a straightforward appraisal. Reasonable people of good will can reach different conclusions.

An assessment of the proportionality of the Israeli response perhaps will only be determined at the outcome of hostilities, whether a sustainable peace of some sort is achieved. Ironically, if Israel were to cease hostilities at this time with the Hezbollah war machine intact enough to keep northern Israel hostage, as seems to be the case, all the lives lost on both sides would have been in vain because little would have been achieved. The balance of good and evil would be weighted to the evil.

The only chance for true proportionality lies in Israel following the difficult route of persuing the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in a thoughtful and careful way. The Israelis have not yet achieved proportionality and prematurely ending their efforts would guarantee it will not soon be achieved.

Iron and Blood

Sunday, July 23rd, 2006

“The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood.” — Otto Von Bismarck, Prussian Prime Minister.

In 1984, I was afforded the opportunity to visit Israel for a two-week scientific conference. The El Al flight left from New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport and landed outside of Tel Aviv. The security of the flight was extremely strict by the standards of the time and even tighter than American post-9/11 security. Every potential passenger was questioned about the purpose of their trip. If you had bags transferred from another airline, you had to claim them and examine their contents to make sure nothing was added while the bags were out of your control. Any bags left in public places unattended were quickly confiscated.

The year 1984 was

One of the most surprising features about life in Israel was the ubiquity of automatic weapons. Soldiers always had them slung over their shoulders. Civilians carried them for protection even on school trips to tourist areas. The guns were a reminder of the precariousness of Israel’s position. Despite, and perhaps because of these weapons, we did not experience security problems. We drove around the country unhindered, visiting the Red Sea and Masada. We took a bus ride parallel to the Jordan River through much of the West Bank, toured the Golan Heights and the then quiet Israeli-Lebanese border, spent time at hotel in northern Israel, and visited the seaport at Haifa.

Now a drive through the West Bank might prove a little dangerous. If we ventured to the border with Lebanon or even to Haifa we would find ourselves within the range of Katyusha rockets raining down indiscriminately from Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon. What happened?

Allured by the success of peace with Egypt and relentlessly pushed by the Europe and the United States to take risks for peace, Israel has tried to apply the same formula with its other enemies. After rooting out terrorists from southern Lebanon, Israel retreated behind its internationally recognized border. As a consequence of the Oslo Accords, Israel has turned over much of the administration of the West Bank to Palestinian Arabs. Recently, Israel has withdrawn from the Gaza strip, even taking the politically difficult task of dismantling Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip.

Unfortunately, the actions have not purchased peace and security. Israel has been forced to erect a wall to keep out terrorists from the West Bank. It has had to re-enter the Gaza Strip to stop attacks that commenced almost from the moment of the Israeli exit. In contravention of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, Hezbollah has been using southern Lebanon as a staging ground for anti-Israel attacks. Perhaps most despicably, Hezbollah is using private residences to store arms, inviting civilian causalities in the event of the present Israel military response.

The land-for-peace formula worked with Egypt, because Egyptian President Anwar Sadat genuinely desired to achieve some accommodation with Israel. However, with Palestinian Arabs, Hezbollah, and Hamas, no negotiations seem possible. These groups are institutionally committed to the destruction of the Israel and use any agreements as mere tactical concessions to enable future attacks. How is it possible for Israel to have a meaningful dialogue with a group that does not recognize Israel’s right to exit. Perhaps the worst part is that such groups have used their control to hide their own corruption and instill a new generation with an existential hatred of Israel.

Unfortunately for Israelis, Palestinians, and others in the region, the observations of Otto Von Bismarck, although made in a different historical context, may prove all too apt.

Laffer’s Ambiguous Curve

Sunday, July 16th, 2006

Physicist Niels Bohr once quipped that, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Just several months ago, the prediction was that the federal budget deficit for this year would be $423 billion dollars. A surge in economic growth increased revenues so that the deficit has dropped $127 billion to $296 billion. In other words, the deficit estimate was 30% too high, which is a measure of the accuracy of the science of economic prediction. President Bush claims that his tax cuts were responsible for the increase in economic growth. The results mitigate the Democrats’ critique that tax rates are too low.

Democrats argue that federal revenues are just passing the point where they were in 2001.However, in 2001 the economy was entering a recession and the attack on September 11, 2001 added to negative economic growth. The tax cuts did not begin their impact until 2002, so the effect of the 2001 recession and September 11 on tax revenues would have occurred whether or not the tax cuts were implemented.

Whether one accepts Bush’s argument or not, the logic behind the Laffer curve, named after economist Arthur Laffer, is inexorable. At a 0% tax rate, government would receive no revenue. At a confiscatory 100% tax rate, there would be such a distinctive to engage in economic activity, that the tax revenue would also be zero. At some tax rate in between, the government maximizes its revenue.

Tax rates also affect private income. There must be some government revenue to provide for a government that can at police economic transactions. Others argue that investment in education by government also increases private income. In any case, a 0% tax rate would not maximize private income. But certainly a rate that maximizes private income would be at a tax rate lower than the rate at which government income is maximized.

Indeed, the two functions can be coupled so that at some intermediate tax rate, the sum of private and government income is maximized. Whether a people select a tax rate that maximizes private income, government income, or the sum of the two is in part at matter of philosophy. Indeed, there are some on the Left who would raise income taxes on the wealthy in a punitive effort to reduce income disparity; even it meant that net tax revenues would be lower.

In addition, the optimum tax rate also depends on the economic distribution of the tax. The poor who are barely managing will continue to work quite hard in spite of high tax rates because they do not have the luxury of living on less. The rich, on the other hand, could decide to eschew the additional work or risk required to earn more income at lower rates of return. Changes in the rate of capital gains also affect the economy in a different way than the taxes on regular income.

The disappointing part is that politicians do not argue about what the optimum tax rate is. For Republicans, the tax rates are always too high. For Democrats, taxes are always too low. When President Ronald Reagan followed President Jimmy Carter into office in 1980, the highest marginal income tax rates were 70%. Reagan persuaded Congress to reduce the highest marginal rate to 28%. When President George Bush followed President Clinton, the highest marginal rates were in 39.5%. The Bush tax plan reduced the highest rate to 35%. Surely, the simulative effect of the Reagan tax cut would have been substantially larger than that associated with Bush’s tax cut. Is the tax rate that maximized federal income 28%, 35%, 39.5%, or 70%? Are we close to revenue maximizing rate now? At what rates are private income or the sum of private and public income maximized? What is the optimum mix of income, sales, and other taxes? These real questions are lost in the political noise.

The Lonely Liberal

Sunday, July 9th, 2006

The New Republic editor Peter Beinart is smart, articulate, literate, and politically lonely and isolated. He is perhaps the ranking member of the dwindling responsible Left. It is people like Beinart that keep the term “responsible Left” from becoming an oxymoron. In The Good Fight: Why Liberals — and Only Liberals — Can Win the War on Terror and Make America Great Again, he makes the case that a only Liberals, in the tradition of the great Cold War warriors, Presidents Harry Truman and John Kennedy and Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson, can execute a credible strategy to deal with the challenge of Islamofascism. The fact that many of Beinart’s fellow Leftists and Liberals are not quite sure there is really a “War on Terror” makes this task more difficult. Indeed, Beinart’s critiques on the execution of the War on Terror are more likely to be considered seriously by the Right rather than the Left.

Beinart begins with a tutorial history of the Cold War that should remind modern Liberals of the fateful and important choices they made at the Cold War’s beginning. For much of the 1930s, the Left was very sympathetic with the Soviet Union and what were perceived to be its progressive social policies. After World War II, the seizure of Eastern Europe and the blockade of Berlin made it apparent to all but the ideologically blinded that the Soviet Union was not a real ally but a totalitarian regime. Nonetheless, important elements of the Democratic Party steadfastly embraced alliance with the Soviet Union. Henry Wallace, former Vice-President for President Franklin Roosevelt, even went so far as to oppose the Marshall Plan to rescue Western Europe economically because he feared that such a plan threatened the Soviet Union. It was Harry Truman and his contemporaries who realized that supporting progressive policies at home was consistent with opposing totalitarianism abroad, even from Socialist regimes.

Despite the fact that the Cold War was finally won during a Conservative Administration and long after Liberals abandoned any pretense of being anti-totalitarian; Beinart’s bases his assertion that the War on Terror can only be one by Liberals on three theses, none of which bears critical scrutiny.

Multilateralism: Beinart argues that the War on Terror may require military intervention, but such intervention is legitimized by the endorsement of multilateral organizations. Moreover such organizations can lend expertise in reconstruction.

While it is true that Liberals pay greater lip service to multilateralism and boast a greater deference to international opinion the differences in practice are not obvious.

In both Gulf Wars, the Bushes, father and son, took their case to the United Nations and secured Senate votes of support before intervention. In both cases the UN did not endorse action, but a rag-tag alliance of the willing was form dominated by the US. Though there was greater international support for the first Gulf War, both Bushes paid a decent respect to the opinion of mankind.

By contrast, Bill Clinton did not secure Congressional approval for intervention into Kosovo. He did not even attempt to secure approval from the United Nations, knowing that Russia would veto any action. Ultimately, he pulled in (or was pulled in by) NATO to deal with a European problem in which the United States had no vital interest.

In two of the most pressing international confrontations, Iran and North Korea, the Bush Administration has steadfastly involved its allies. It has given the lead to the Europeans on Iran and is insisting on including Japan, China, Russia, and South Korea in talks with North Korea. The real irony is that many Liberals who argued for multilateralism are now urging the US to eschew other countries and negotiate one-on-one with Iraq and North Korea. Former Clinton Administration officials are even recommending that the US preemptively strike missile testing facilities in North Korea. Who is seeking to act unilaterally now?

Economic Development: Beinart plausibly argues that poverty and hopelessness breeds terrorists. Conservatives are willing, in Beinart’s world, to fund wars and political development but short funding for economic development. This is sort of a mirror to Beinart’s perception of domestic parsimony by Conservatives. Without such true economic development, anti-terrorists efforts will not succeed. Beinart criticizes the Bush Administration for ignoring Arab economic development. He argues for an Arab Marshall Plan, analogous to the one instituted by hawkish Democrats to provide for European reconstruction after World War II.

Only Liberals, according to Beinart, are inclined to do this. Beinart forgets that although Truman pushed for the original Marshall Plan, it was not solely a Liberal effort.� The plan passed by wide margins in a Republican Congress and was endorsed by Republican Presidential candidates Harold Stassen and Thomas Dewey. Aid to Europe continued under the Eisenhower Administration, though Eisenhower was not a Liberal. Economic development aid can at times be a wise prescription, but both sides of the political aisle can recognize its advantages.

Moreover, Beinart’s calculation of how much aid is provided the Arab world neglects non-governmental organizations that are usually far more effective than direct government aid. The original Marshall Plan worked, in large measure, because there was a middle class culture in Europe than needed mostly economic resources for development. In many places in the Arab world massive economic aid would at best be squandered inefficiently or at worst be siphoned off by corrupt leaders. The US has invested over $50 billion into Egypt since 1979 with only modest economic development and little movement toward a pluralistic democracy.

Much of the Arab world does not lack funds, but rather requires a political structure and culture that would encourage both economic and social development. One of the chief sources of terrorists is Saudi Arabia which is awash in oil riches, but has not managed to provide true economic development for its people.

Taxes: One can not read a Liberal political track very long before an increase in taxes is urged. Beinart argues that the War on Terror needs resources and Conservatives are not willing to raise the necessary funds through taxation. Beinart believes the Department of Homeland Security is under funded. If anything, recent evidence suggests that the Department of Homeland Security is not particularly efficient at using the resources that it has.

As far as overall resources are concerned, Beinart must have finished the final draft of his book before the statistics on a rapidly falling deficit were in. Not only is the deficit falling, the debt load of the country is at historically sustainable level because of the massive growth spurred on by taxes cuts early in the Bush Administration. The US debt load compares very favorably with the debt load of the stagnant economies of Europe who suffer under far higher tax rates than the US.

However, the key flaw in Beinart argument does not fall under these three theses. Rather, it is the nostalgic illusion that any significant portion of the Democratic Party is serious about terrorism. There is no core Democratic vision for dealing with terror save more law enforcement. For the most vocal in the Democratic Party, the real threat to the US is the Bush Administration and not terrorists. More importantly, Liberals have not articulated a vision of American greatness.

The core of the Democratic Party has only two positions on the Iraq War: get out soon or get out now, with nary a concern as to whether the government that remains has the ability to deal with both security and economic development. The Democratic argument is not that Iraq is so secure or its government so capable that they do not need our military help, but that we should leave regardless of the security situation. There are few if any anti-totalitarian Democrats in the mold of Harry Truman, John Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey or Scoop Jackson left. Perhaps the only conspicuous Democrat that could be so classified is Senator Joe Lieberman who, a few short years ago, was the Vice-Presidential nominee for the Democratic Party. He is under a severe primary challenge by Ned Lamont, a MoveOn.org-sponsored candidate. Party heavy weights like Senators Russ Feingold and John Kerry, refuse to state a preference on the outcome of the primary. How can Beinart’s argument that the far-Left, Michael Moore wing of the party should be shed be considered seriously, when that wing of the party is busy clipping off moderate Democrats? Beinart plainly pines for a party that has long ago disappeared.

Beinart’s book is engaging and well-written. Conservatives would do well to take to heart many of his critiques. However, we should all hope that the sub-title of his book is mistaken. If only Liberals can win the War on Terror, then it will not be won.

The New York Times – Not Too SWIFT

Monday, July 3rd, 2006

Maintaining a measure of consistency in opinion over time can be difficult. Often, it is easy to avoid thinking thoroughly through one’s positions without appreciating their full import. This is especially true when statements are separated by substantial gaps of time. However, when conspicuously contradictory statements are juxtaposed, yet pass unrecognized as incongruous and oxymoronic, lunacy prevails.

On June 23, 2003 the New York Times revealed a “secret Bush administration program” that allowed the government access to international financial transactions to track terrorist financing. The program centers on a Belgium financial clearing house, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). According to the article, the program is legal and effective. The NY Times’ report also actually describes terrorists who had been apprehended as a consequence of the program.

Immediately, the President and others criticized both the original leak of the information and the decision by the NY Times to publish despite bi-partisan requests that the paper show uncharacteristic restraint. In the wake of this criticism, the Boston Globe picked up on the talking points of the Left, and ran an article five days later entitled “Terrorist funds-tracking no secret, some say”. Since nothing was revealed, the NY Times did nothing wrong.

The unseen hilarious incongruity is either the SWIFT program was, as the NY Times reported, “secret” and important enough to be on front page of the paper, or it was common knowledge. Both conditions cannot be true. Moreover, if terrorists are being caught, then the program could not be very common knowledge. Once again anti-Bush animosity blinded normally sane people from seeing the obvious.

Publishing leaked classified information can arguably be consistent with journalistic standards, if the program was either illegal or being abused. The NY Times itself makes no such claim. Moreover, relevant members of Congress were being informed. Republican and Democratic politicians, including vocal Administration critic Representative John Murtha (D-PA), and Democratic co-chair of the 9/11 Commission, Lee Hamilton, urged that the NY Times not divulge the program. The paper was not persuaded.

Why then would the NY Times publish the article? The key may lie in the unintentionally revelatory statement by Bill Keller, executive editor of the NY Times: “We remain convinced that the administration’s [italics added-FMM] extraordinary access to this vast repository of international financial data, however carefully targeted use of it may be, is a matter of public interest.” The editor’s concern was not the general government’s access to listing of financial transaction, but this “administration’s” access.

It is also worthy to note that in a June 25, 2006 piece, Editor Bill Keller explained his decision “to disregard the wishes of the President and his appointees.” But he does not bother to mention that he was disregarding the wishes of not only the President but people on both sides of the aisle and in Congress as well. Again we see the pattern of an almost pathological fixation on the Bush Administration.

The editors have been eloquent in explaining the necessity of a free press and the obligations of such a press to be responsible what it chooses to publish about national security matters. However, they have been unable to offer a sustainable reason why it was necessary or important to reveal the details of this particular program at this particular time.

It is no secret that the editors of the NY Times pretty much don’t like this Administration. Anything that might conceivably cast it in a negative light is given great weight, perhaps even outweighing possible compromises in the nation’s ability to deal with terror. Annoyance with the President has clouded the judgment of the paper. Perhaps the paper suffers because there are not enough Conservatives in the newsroom to provide balance. Regardless of the reason, because the editors of the NY Times are not sufficiently introspective to recognize their own biases, the paper, the country, and the War on Terror all suffer.

Sticking to Their Story

Sunday, June 25th, 2006

“We begin with the common belief that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a threat to the peace and stability of the region. He has ignored the mandated of the United Nations and is building weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivering them.” — Senator Carl Levin (D-MI), September 19, 2002.

The issue of weapons of mass destruction WMD is a central question concerning the liberation of Iraq. Before the operation by Coalition Forces in 2003 began, there was a broad and deep consensus among leaders of both the Democratic and Republican Parties and indeed the world that Saddam’s Iraq had retained a portion of his stockpiles of WMD from the pre-1991 war era and was still actively seeking such capability and the means to deliver them. All of these activities were in direct violation of the cease-fire agreement with Coalition Forces in 1991 as well as numerous United Nations resolutions.

In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Kay and Reports clearly demonstrated that Saddam’s Iraq was trying to maintain WMD capability and extend its ability to deliver them, though no stockpiles of WMD were found. The categorical “no WMD” assertion was not technically correct because about 30 chemical weapons were found. This number was small enough that it could be believed that the Saddam regime may have lost these to sloppy accounting. The headlines could still “No WMD Stockpiles Found.” Rhetorically speaking, it was possible for some to assert that Bush lied to us about WMD with the same certainty that they assured us before the war that such weapons existed.

It has always been intuitively unsatisfying to believe that Saddam had really come clean with regard to WMD, yet still would not allow international inspectors to unequivocally certify it. After all, interfering with international inspectors cost the regime billons in oil revenues that it might have otherwise enjoyed. Some suggest that interfering with inspectors was a big bluff by Saddam in order for him to save face in the Arab world. In retrospect, if Saddam’s regime had turned over its WMD in the first months after the first Gulf War, sanctions would have ended in a year and the regime could have re-started its WMD program in a few years financed by increasing oil revenues. The bluff would have been irrational. Though, it must be conceded that Saddam has often miscalculated.

One explanation is that some of the WMD had been transferred to Syria prior to the second Gulf War. There is precedent to this behavior in that prior to the first Gulf War, Saddam’s sent some of his Air Force to his implacable enemy Iran rather than see them destroyed by Coalition Forces. Iran declined to return the planes. It is not commonly known, that the Duelfer Report specifically did not rule out such a weapons transfer. In a recent a book Saddam’s Secret, a former Iraqi Air Force General Georges Sada asserts that weapons were moved to Syria, though his sources are second-hand.

Now we find that in the years since the completion of the Duelfer Report, additional weapons have been found. The weapons are in widely varying states of operational readiness, but now the number totals 500, certainly enough to be considered a stockpile. This certainly less than might have been expected based on pre-war intelligence, but still remains a critical conclusion. Unfortunately this new information contradicts the story line of the past couple of years and consequently has difficulty fighting its way into a mainstream media that already has its mind made up.

It seems that such news released by Republican Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) from previously classified documents would be front page news whatever assessment one makes of the credibility of this new information. If the released report is true, it must compel a re-assessment of the conventional wisdom about WMD stockpiles. If the evidence is weak, then it speaks negatively of yet another attempt by some who supported the initial invasion to desperately justify their decision. This latter point is key. If the newly released report is false or misleading, then that would provide powerful evidence of deception and play into the Left-wing assertion that “Bush lied.” The day after the release there was scant evidence of it in the mainstream media. It was not a top AP story. Does the scant coverage actually provide evidence of the report’s compelling credibility?

The Washington Post on June 23, 2006 relegated the story to page A10, under the rather self-serving headline, “Democrats Criticize Claim on Iraqi Arms.” While several days later, the front page of the Sunday Washington Post ran a story, probably leaked from the CIA on how prior to the war the CIA warned against the credibility of a “fabricator” who was providing evidence of pre-war WMD in Iraq. The former story officially released by a Senator contracting the story line of “no WMD” is buried or ignored, and a story from an unnamed source supporting the “no WMD” narrative is featured on the front page.

It is clear that the “no WMD” is the mainstream media’s story and they are sticking to it.

Utopia

Sunday, June 18th, 2006

In an exodus from persecution in Illinois, Brigham Young, led a vanguard group of Mormons through the Great Plains of the central United States to the Great Salt Lake Valley. After an arduous journey and gazing down upon the area, Young proclaimed, “Here is the place where my people Israel shall pitch their tents.” Young saw a place where his people and their descendents could prosper. We leave it to present day Utah residents and Mormon adherents to decide whether a “promised land” was reached.In a more literal sense, the Great Salt Lake Valley is the home of a new high-tech UTOPIA (Utah Telecommunication Open Infrastructure Agency). Rather than a land flowing with milk and honey, this is a land flowing with data and information. This bandwidth promises to ease commercial transactions and enable the electronic delivery of content and services to individual homes. As we gaze upon this new world, we might paraphrase Young, “Here is the place where my people shall be connected.”UTOPIA is a publicly-chartered and owned institution that controls the network that connects a number of cities in the Great Salt Lake Valley. The agency is installing an optical fiber network promising 100 Mbits/second residential and commercial bandwidth. This bandwidth is more than an order-of-magnitude faster than conventional high-speed cable or other residential optical networks offered by companies like Verizon. It is sufficient to pipe down high-definition video with additional bandwidth available for growth.However, UTOPIA only provides the digital pipes, not any content or services. The idea is that the physical network is a natural monopoly like electricity or water services and ought to be a regulated monopoly. Once this pipe is in place, the assumption is that there will competition to provide services like phone connection, Internet connections, and video programming driving down prices.

There are many communities where a cable company will come in an drop coax cable to every home while a telecommunications company will follow, perhaps years later, and drop optical fiber to the same houses. There is duplication of effort which, on the face of it, appears to be an inefficiency. Moreover, service providers are limited to those companies with the economic resources to build a full-scale network. Competition for services is either non-existent or fought out between only a few large companies. Prices tend to stay high. The UTOPIA plan tries to circumvent this by treating bandwidth itself a public utility.

UTOPIA is an interesting and novel concept. Municipalities and states ought to track the progress of this model for providing bandwidth. The potential downside is that public utilities tend to be lethargic and avoid innovation. If UTOPIA had been conceived a decade ago, they might have decided to lay copper instead of optical fiber. Once this investment is made, would a UTOPIA be eager to replace this infrastructure? The inefficiency of two companies laying two types of lines may be part of what is termed “creative destruction” where innovative economic transformations are built on the ruins of previously successful enterprises.

Other municipalities may adopt similar or hybrid models to deliver bandwidth. Overtime we may see what mix of government-regulated monopoly, private enterprise, and technological progress will create the freest possible environment for innovation and growth in residential and commercial bandwidth.

Reaction to the Death of Zarqawi

Sunday, June 11th, 2006

When light is absorbed and refracted by the atmosphere, the resulting light spectrum often says as much about the nature of the intervening atmosphere through which it passed as it does about the original source of light. In much the same way, the manner in which a person responds to news is as much a measure of perspective of the person as it is about the news.

Consider for example, the news of the past couple of weeks. Information came to light that suggested, but has not yet proved, that some US servicemen deliberately killed civilians in Haditha, perhaps in a fit of rage. Why certainly no one condones the alleged actions, those opposed to the Iraq War were quick to seize on the incident as a metaphor for all the challenges that have occurred in Iraq and tried to tie the incident to the Bush Administration. Those against the war wanted the incident, no matter how rare or atypical, to become a metaphor for the war. The fact that painting with such a broad brush might also taint the large majority of US service people who have behaved nobly and bravely seems some how lost or is less important than the opportunity to damage the Bush Administration.

This last week, in a well-coordinated and professional attack, the US military in conjunction with Iraqi forces managed to kill Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. He was the Al Qaeda terrorist who entered Iraq before the Coalition liberation and has sparked sectarian Sunni and Shiite violence. By brutally targeting and killing Iraqi civilians, many times woman and children, Zarqawi has kept alive the violence.

No morally serious person is displeased with the outcome. While our better natures might be uncomfortable with rejoicing at the death of any human being, we can all be delighted in knowing that some people will likely be saved from future terrorist actions and still others might be dissuaded from following Zarqawi’s lead.

Most public officials, even those opposed to American involvement in Iraq, have expressed their approval at Zarqawi’s death. However, Democrats could only bring themselves to praise troops and refused to grant the Administration any credit. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, stated that “This is a good day for the Iraqi people, the U.S. military and our intelligence community.” It would too much to expect much praise of President George Bush.

Perhaps most revealing is the initial reaction of some on the Left. One can check out the web site called the Democratic Underground to obtain a glimpse of the loonier Left wing.

In the hours after Zarqawi’s death, the first reaction was denial followed by the assertion that Zarqawi was not really as bad a guy as painted by main-stream media and the Administration. Then came the suggestions that this particular operation was planned for Bush’s political advantage. Here are some selected Democratic Underground posts from the morning of June 9, 2006.

”Sorry. Don’t buy it.”

“ABC has a highly detailed special report going. breaking late night… They’ve been blaming him [Zarqaewi] for every ill for the past 15 minutes. Oil rigs, hotels, the UN compound, Nick Berg. (ABC says he actually killed Berg himself). This guy was a regular one man super army. Such BS. The boogey man Goldstein is finally dead? Right.

“Convenient too that this would happen now… guess we should just all forget about that Haditha mess, the fact that we are approaching 2,500 dead and the fact that our economy is in big trouble.”

“Gawd! Please, no disrespect — but this is only `a tool’ that is used by the BushBotBorg to pick-up morale. It sort of equates to 1984 Announcements that our `chocolate rations’ will be upped for the next month.”

“It’s all the distraction in the news media and that average people can not keep it all straight. Anew I see the value of the DU [Democratic Underground], because of smart people who catch this sort of thing.”

Of course, the Democratic Underground is aptly named since it is the cesspool into which the scum of the Left drain. Yet, one wonders about the embarrassment saner Democrats must feel when Representative Peter Stark from California averred that the entire Zarqawi killing was a stunt, “just to cover Bush’s [rear] so he doesn’t have to answer” for the events in Haditha. Former Democratic presidential candidate and Ohio’s 10th District representative in the House of Representative, Dennis Kucinich, dismissed Zarqawi as only a small part of the insurgency.

The natural inclination of most Democrats like other Americans is to be overjoyed at the removal of a brutal enemy of Americans and Iraqis. However, such is the state of American politics that anti-Bush anger makes it difficult for some to accept good news lest it reflects positively on the President.

Supporting the Troops

Sunday, June 4th, 2006

Between February 13 and 15, 1945 during World War II, the British Royal Air Force and the US Air Force firebombed the German city of Dresden. Dresden was a beautiful Baroque city near the eastern border of Germany. Firebombing by Allied forces consisted of dropping explosives which destroy structures, especially roof tops, followed by incendiary explosive designed to ignite a firestorm. The ensuing firestorm not only destroys building but is particularly lethal to people on the ground.

The purpose of the bombing, particularly near the train stations, was to prevent the Germans from rapidly exchanging troops from the Eastern and Western fronts. Despite this ostensible motivation, thereremains a critical question as to whether the destruction of life was proportionate to the net benefit to the Allied war effort. Recent scholarship suggests that 25,000 to 35,000 Germans on ground were killed.

Though Dresden was an important transit point, it did not contribute to the German war effort to the extent of other cities.  On this basis, many now claim that the bombing of Dresden was a war crime. In retrospect, at best the Allied commanders were too cavalier is balancing the level of possible civilian casualties and shortening the war. Perhaps there was more than a little revenge for the bombing of London poisoning the hearts of Allied commanders. This assessment is re-enforced by the comment of Arthur Travers Harris, Marshall of the Royal Air Force, who wrote, “I do not personally regard the whole of the remaining cities of Germany as worth the bones of one British Grenadier.”

Nearly 60 years later, American troops needed to suppress insurgent actions in the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which had become an insurgent haven. US troops urged as many civilians to leave the city as possible. At this point, it would have been possible to literally and thoroughly destroy the city from the air. However, to do so would have risked remaining civilian lives and made reconstruction both from a physical and political stand point more difficult. American troops went through Fallujah house-by-house and door-by-door to root out insurgents. About 1,000 insurgents were killed and 92 Americans gave their lives so that many Iraqi civilians would live.

We cite these disparate examples to illustrate the extreme care and sensitivity with which the Iraq War has been conducted. The number of American and Coalition casualties is higher than it otherwise would have been because of efforts to conduct a just war. This is what makes aberrations like the prisoner abuse by a minority at Abu Grab and an alleged massacre by US forces at Haditha so disappointing and so out of character.

After Dresden, Paul Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi Propaganda Minister, used the bombing to undermine the moral authority of the Allies for political purposes. He showed pictures of destruction and exaggerated the number of civilian casualties by a factor of 10. No doubt, the modern heirs to the Goebbels tradition will exaggerate Marine and Army mistakes. We hope that this exploitation will not be aided by American news sources that are so angry at President George Bush that any bad news will be exploited.

No one argues that the press should not aggressively follow and report the Abu Grab and other stories. However, to write about these without balancing the coverage with positive stories of American soldiers or without other context is knowingly misleading. When this happens, the American press fails in its responsibility to inform. It allows the modern Middle Eastern counterparts to Goebbels to exploit American errors.

Unfortunately, the goal of the angry Left is to embrace events like Abu Grab a metaphor for the Iraq War even if in the process it unfairly paints American soldiers as barbarians. By most accounts, the overwhelming fraction of soldiers have behaved honorably and nobly taking increases risks to save Iraqi lives. Some on the Left become upset when it is suggested that they don’t support the troops. Unbalanced reporting or excessive criticism of isolated errors by American troops without perspective renders them fairly susceptible to such criticism.

Bonds Hits 644 Not 715

Sunday, May 28th, 2006

Since its rules have undergone only marginal change over parts of three centuries, much is made of the continuity and stability of the game of baseball. Part of the charm of baseball is the conceit or illusion that players from different eras can be fairly compared. How does Babe Ruth, for example, compare to Hank Aaron?

By definition all-time records — the most homeruns in a single season, the longest consecutive hitting streak, the most career hits — are statistics that form the basis of judging players of different eras. In swimming or running records fall like clockwork as players grow bigger and faster because of improved training methods, better nutrition, faster tracks and pools, and sometimes chemical aides. In baseball, players play directly against one another. As hitters grow bigger and faster, so too do pitchers and defensive players. Balance is generally maintained. Longtime records fall sporadically as rare players raise their game above the level of their contemporaries.

However, baseball too has it discontinuities that provide the grist of arguments when comparing players. The meaning of hitting records changed when livelier balls with a cork center were introduced in 1926. Cumulative records must certainly be affected by the introduction of night games since it is more difficult to hit the ball under the lights.

The facts that

  • stadiums have been redesigned and new ones constructed,
  • the size of the pitcher’s mound has changed,
  • the designated hitter was introduced into the American League,
  • relief pitching is used now more than in the past,
  • leagues have expanded,
  • the season has grown from 154 to 162 games, and
  • the strike zone has shrunken and grown at the collective whims of baseball umpires

have all changed the game.

Of course the most profound transformation in baseball came when black Americans were finally allowed to play major league baseball. In what sense can any record before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947 be considered legitimate without the pool of black players to compete against? Though we can speak as if the game has remained the same, it is really profoundly different as it has changed to accommodate to new American sensibilities and sometimes American sins.

If you believe the evidence offered in Game of Shadows by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams, the late 1990s will be known as the era of the “juiced” player, where the introduction of steroids and growth hormones made players stronger, enabled them to train harder, and to play with less fatigue. Hitting records washed away in a deluge of chemical enhancement.

Babe Ruth’s single-season homerun record of 60 in 1927 stood for 34 years until Roger Maris’s bested it by one run in 1961. That record held up for 37 years. Then from 1998 to 2001 Mark McGwire, Sammy Sousa, and Barry Bonds broke the 61 homerun mark six times, with Barry Bonds besting them all with 73 homeruns in 2001. The single-season homerun record was not broken in a single extraordinary performance by a single player, but six times by three different players. Something dramatic had happened and steroid use is a chief suspect.

As of this writing, Barry Bonds has just surpassed Babe Ruth’s career mark of 715 homeruns, though at Bonds’s reduced production rate, Hank Aaron’s 754 mark still seems along way off. Nonetheless, the question arises, how would Barry Bonds have faired has his training not been pharmaceutically augmented.

Of course, this is a question that cannot ever be definitively answered, but on can make reasoned estimates. Patrick Hruby of ESPN used an at-bat-by-at-bat approach to estimate Bonds’s hypothetical performance. Using empirical formulas relating player weight to bat speed and bat speed to distance traveled, Hruby estimates that Bonds’s hits traveled about nine feet further as a consequence of 20 lbs of steroid-induced muscle mass. Taking the distance all of Bonds’s homeruns from 1999 to 2004, Hruby computes how many would have fallen harmlessly on the warning track rather than landing in the stands. Assuming that fatigue would have reduced homerun production late in the season, Hruby then makes an adjustment for increased energy steroids might have provided to arrive at a total of 616 homeruns, nearly a hundred short of Bonds’s present total. We must now add one to Hruby’s total to 617 given Bonds’s 715th homerun.

Hruby’s computations are intriguing but they are focused too narrowly. While it is possible to go back and adjust all of Bonds’s hits for distance, doing so ignores the fact that if Bonds were hitting fewer homeruns, pitchers would have pitched differently to him. During Bonds’ most productive seasons, he was intentionally walked an extraordinary number of times. In 2004, he garnered over 232 walks of which 120 were obviously intentional. An unknown number of walks were just the result pitchers giving nothing for Bonds to hit. If Bonds were not such a dangerous hitter, he would have had far more at-bats. This increased number of at-bats would have given Bonds more opportunity to hit homeruns in a way unaccounted for by Hruby’s analysis.

Here we offer an alternative estimate. Many people have examined the trajectory in player careers, with player performance increasing at the beginning of a career and then gradually ebbing as a player ages. Though there are exceptions, the trajectories can be modeled as quadratic functions which usually peak about 27 years of age. Using a simple curve fit, we estimate Bonds’ homerun trajectory.

The attached graph shows Bonds’s actual homerun production. The solid black line shows a quadratic curve fit for Bonds’s homerun production, only using homerun data from 1986 to 1998. The standard deviation about the curve fit to 1998 is 4.8 runs per season. We assume that the homeruns from 1999 to 2004 were tainted.

bonds_hr.png

From the beginning of his career through 1998 Bonds accumulated 411 homeruns. If we add the curve-fit-predicted homeruns from 1999 to 2004, when we assume steroid enhancement, and then add the small number of homeruns from 2005 and 2006, we arrive at an estimate of 644 homeruns. Given the assumptions that the curve fit reasonably estimates homerun production, then the 95% confidence limits on the estimate of homeruns, would bound this value to between 640 to 648 homeruns. These numbers would have Bonds fourth on the on-time list just behind Willie Mays’s 660 mark. Although here we challenge Hruby’s overly pessimistic estimate of Bonds’s likely homerun total without drug enhancement, we echo Hruby’s conclusion: “Without steroids, Bonds was a damn good player. With steroids, he’s a good player damned.”