Author Archive

Honest and Decent

Saturday, December 30th, 2006

The adjectives “honest” and “decent” have been so repeatedly attached to the recently deceased 38th President of the United States, Gerald R. Ford, that they are rapidly becoming cliché. Nonetheless, these traditional mid-western virtues explain a considerable portion of both Ford’s success and failures as president.

Ford was the only un-elected president and openly acknowledged that fact. When he assumed the presidency after the resignation of President Richard Nixon on August 9, 2004, Ford explained, “I am acutely aware that you have not elected me as your President by your ballots, and so I ask you to confirm me as your President with your prayers.” The words are poetic and his intent genuine.

When President Nixon resigned the country was deeply divided, in the final years of a bitterly divisive war, and in economic distress (unemployment 6-9%;, inflation 10-12%). Perhaps there was not an adequate sacrifice offered to the gods of a harsh justice, but it was Ford’s inherent decency and longing to assuage the country’s pains that explain his decision to pardon President Nixon. Many at the time were frustrated of an opportunity to pursue Nixon further and the decision probably caused Ford the election in 1976 to President Jimmy Carter. Ford knew the likely consequences of his decision and put his vision of what the country needed over any political advantage.

In retrospect, the decision was probably a wise one. An indictment and trial probably would have lasted through his term and through the term of the next president. Any political energy required to deal with the nation’s problems would have been dissipated by such proceedings. The country would not have been able to begin to address any of the problems confronting it.

Ford’s conspicuous forthrightness and directness, perhaps unfairly associated with mental dullness, also helped heal a nation. After Nixon, the country needed a president that did not appear too clever or nefarious.

Ford’s decency also explains a good deal of his failures. Only a good man who mistakenly expects his own notions of good will and patriotism to be embraced by others and who came from the WWII generation would have believed that “Whip Inflation Now” program to exhort Americans to restrain their wage and price demands had any possibility of succeeding.

Only a person who spent his life in the House of Representatives and believes that all differences are splittable would have been so willing to overlook Soviet behavior and eagerly negotiate with them. This eagerness caused him to twist his normal good sense and argue that Poland was not dominated by the Soviet Union and to spurn Nobel laureate Alexander Solzhenitsyn, fearing that the Soviets would break off the warm relations of detente.

It was in Ford’s good nature, when he defeated Ronald Reagan for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976, at the end of the Republican National Convention, to call down Ronald Reagan to the platform with him. It was Ford’s moment, yet he extended the olive branch to Reagan and simultaneously undercut his own chances of victory against Jimmy Carter in the fall. Reagan was reluctant to come to the platform. After all, he had just narrowly lost the nomination. However, once he did, Reagan gave an impromptu speech which charged the Republicans present and gave everyone there the palpable feeling that in nominating Ford, they had just sellected the wrong fellow.

Ford was a caretaker president filling in between two elected president. Despite his shortcomings, Ford was welcome relief from President Nixon’s mendacity. Moreover, he served his nation’s interest far better than his successor President Carter. At least, he never embarrassed himself during his post-presidential years, as has Carter,  in self-righteous dotage

“Are there no prisons?”

Sunday, December 24th, 2006

In the opening chapter of Charles Dickens’s A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is solicited for a private donation during the Christmas season to “make some slight provision for the poor the destitute” since “many thousands are in want of common necessities.” In one of literature’s most memorable exchanges, Scrooge asks, “Are there no prisons? … And the Union workhouses are they still in operation?” When assured that prisons and workhouses still are in operation, Scrooge dismisses any personal responsibilities by claiming that “I help to support the establishments I mentioned.” In other words the existence of large institutions for collective provision, Scrooge believed, relieved him of personal responsibility for the poor.

Unfortunately, one of the consequences of well-intentioned government provision is to attenuate the personal responsibility we all have with regard to the material needs of others. The empirical evidence suggests that those who most persuaded of the efficacy government provision are those who, as a rule, feel less personal responsibility. Arthur Brooks, in Who Really Cares, has thoroughly examined the statistics on charitable giving and has found that Conservatives, particularly religious Conservatives, are far more likely to donate to charities and in higher amounts than Liberals, particularly secular Liberals. Moreover, Conservatives are more likely to volunteer their time and even donate blood at a substantially higher rate.

These statistics represent a generalization. There are very many liberals who are quite generous with their time and money and their efforts should not be ignored or disparaged. However, Brooks does not allow us to escape the conclusion that Conservatives are more generous. It is not because Liberals are inherently less empathetic or compassionate, it is because the political ideology of collective provision saps the moral necessity for personal action.

This fact mirrors itself in national differences with respect to European countries who have bought into the socialized world view. The United States provides a large amount of direct foreign aid, but other industrialized countries provide more relative to their Gross National Product (GDP). However, much of the assistance to foreign countries from the US come through private donations to private non-governmental organizations. Indeed, private assistance dwarfs US official development assistance by a factor of three and few doubt that such private aid is more efficiently dispensed. When all these sources are taken together, the US ranks among the highest in generosity relative to its wealth.

When the ghost of Jacob Marley visits Scrooge, Scrooge wonders why Marley is so burdened in death since he was such a good businessman. Marley’s Ghost shouts, “ Business! Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business. The dealings ofmy trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean ofmy business! [emphasis added]” This observation is consistent with the Conservative intuition. A Liberal version of Marley’s lament would have substituted “our” for “my” and therein lies the difference between Conservatives and Liberals.

Mendacity: The Key to Evil

Sunday, December 17th, 2006

It is hard to imagine two more important and fundamental freedoms than the freedom of speech and the freedom to pursue scholarly inquiry. One price that we often must pay for adherence to these values is the endurance of their exploitation in the service of evil.

This last week, Iran hosted a conference in Tehran on the Holocaust: the deliberate and systematic killing millions of Jews by Nazi Germany during World War II. The conference was given the benign-sounding title “the International Conference to Review the Global Vision of the Holocaust.” Now intellectually honest scholars can argue the details about the specifics of the Holocaust, but the fact that it occurred is as well-documented as things get in history. The only sorry fact is that the eyewitnesses to this terrible event of 60 years ago are dying off. In not too many years, the event will pass out of living memory into our collective history where it might be more vulnerable to manipulation.

The goal of the conference in Tehran was not scholarly inquiry but a deliberate effort to undermine the legitimacy of Israel. After the Holocaust, the world was anxious to find a place where Jews might live in peace. The Middle East near Jerusalem already had a significant Jewish population, the Jews had a historic tie to the area, and many Jews more were immigrating there to escape Europe. In 1947, the United Nations divided the Palestinian Mandate into a Jewish area which became Israel and an Arab area which became Jordan.

The presence of Israel embarrasses some of the Islamic states surrounding it for several reasons. First, after Israel declared itself a state, all the countries surrounding waged war in the mistaken belief that they would quickly overwhelm the fledging nation. Instead, these largely Arab countries were militarily crushed in wars in1948, in 1956, and in 1968. In 1972, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack that initially reeled Israel back on its feet, but by the time a cessation of hostilities was agree to Israeli forces were threatening to march into Cairo.

The second source of embarrassment is that Israel has managed in the midst of war and constant threat to its survival to build a modern, democratic, prosperous, and educated state out of what was once a poor Middle Eastern backwater. The success was an indirect rebuke of the political leadership of other Arabic and Muslim countries whose only wealth was the accident of oil reserves that could only be exploited with the help of Western technology.

The Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has declared the Holocaust a “myth” and called for the elimination of Israel sponsored this Holocaust denial conference. This event reminds us that mendacity is the surest means to detect evil.

ISG Lost Opportunity

Saturday, December 9th, 2006

“A committee can make a decision that is dumber than any of its members.” — David Coblitz

Committee: a group of men who individually can do nothing but as a group decide that nothing can be done” — Fred Allen.

Before a work is published in a respected journal it is usually vetted for correctness and originality by either an editor or other experts. One famous dismissal of a poor manuscript, attributed to Samuel Johnson, was, “Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good.” This assessment can aptly be applied to the recently released report by the Iraq Study Group (ISG), headed by former Secretary of State James Baker and former Representative Lee Hamilton, who served on the House Intelligence Committee.

After nine months of study, the group issued 79 recommendations for dealing with rising level of insurgency violence in Iraq. Most of these recommendations are either obvious, relatively minor, or already being partially implemented. For example, recommendation 23 reads, “The President should restate that the United States does not seek to control Iraq’s oil.”

There is certainly no harm in re-iterating this statement, but the United States has not sought to exploit Iraqi oil since the liberation of Iraq and surely this action speaks more persuasively than repeated statements by the President. Did it really take an august panel to come up with this recommendation? Frankly, if the US wanted Iraqi oil it would have been far easier and less expensive to allow international sanctions atrophy and simply purchase the oil. Moreover, if this question remains a key sticking point, the ISG should urge that the Left-wing in the United States cease continually suggesting that the goal of the liberation of Iraq was really seizure of the oil resources.

Recommendation 36 reads in part, “The United States should encourage dialogue between sectarian communities…” Gee, what an imaginative idea. Why had no one thought of that before? There may be no harm in the re-statement of the obvious, but one might have expected greater insight from a presumably thorough re-examination of the Iraq situation.

The recommendations that are not mundane, prosaic, or simple extensions of current efforts in Iraq represent such a fundamental misunderstanding of the Middle East that they are, to steal the words of Wolfgang Pauli, “not even wrong.” The ISG recommends that the United States, “actively engage Iran and Syria in its diplomatic dialogue, without preconditions.”

Iran and Syria are the problems. Without the continual support by Iraq and Syria of internal Iraq insurgent groups Iraq, would be a far less violent place. The only thing the US could offer in exchange for less Syrian and Iranian involvement in Iraq would be to sell out a fledging democracy in Lebanon to Syria and to allow the Iranians to pursue nuclear weapons without international protest.

This foolish recommendation is a direct outgrowth of a fundamentally incorrect assumption on the part of the ISG that both countries have an “interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq.” Precisely, the opposite is true. A free, democratic, and stable Iraq represents an implicit repudiation of Syria and Iran and, hence, a threat. Chaos is what these countries are trying to sow.

The ISG has done a disservice to the President, and to Congress and to the American people. They could have offered new and effective ideas. Instead, their recommendations are either obvious extensions of current policies or poorly-disguised recipes graceful retreat.

Perhaps, it is too much to expect any committee to provide recommendations for victory. Frederick the Great counseled “Audacity, audacity — always audacity,” and audacity is not typically a committee commodity. Is it possible to even name a war won on the counsels of a committee? One could tell that the report would represent plan for retreat when the co-authors explained in their introduction that they sought “a responsible conclusion” for the Iraq and not victory.

Reducing Income Inequality

Sunday, December 3rd, 2006

The Gini Index is a conventional measure of income distribution equality. A Gini index of 0 corresponds to every household having the same income, while an index of 100 corresponds to one person earning all the income. The Gini index in the United States tends to be a higher than in Western European countries. The US Gini index is about 45, while most European countries have Gini indices in the 30’s. However, this comparison can be misleading, since European countries individually tend to be more culturally and socially homogeneous than a large continental nation like the US. The more proper comparison is between the US and the entire EU. The total US population is comparable to that of EU and there are significant income disparities from country to country within EU that broaden the net EU income disparity. The per capita gross national product (GDP) in Denmark is $34,800 as compared to Poland who’s per capita GDP is about $13,100. Hence, income inequality for the EU as a whole can be substantially larger than that for any single European country. (See the CIA World Factbook for these figures)

There can be little statistical doubt that there has been a gradual increase in US household income inequality since 1980, with a particularly large jump in the early to mid 1990s. There are many causes for this increase. There has been a long-term change in the labor market valuing skilled as opposed to unskilled labor increasing the relative income of highly trained individuals. Households have changed, with more single-parent households which traditionally have had lower incomes. Even for a couple where both people earn a good income, divorce will drive down relative household income and putting them at a relative economic disadvantage. The rise in two-income families has widened household income disparity. Two people can generally earn more income than one person working outside the home. Moreover, high income individuals tend to marry other high-income people further exacerbating household income disparity.

There are two important values that seem to be at odds here. It is important for countries to maintain a sense of community identity and common purpose. This affinity can be attenuated with high levels of income disparity. On the other hand, we value meritocracy where earnings and achieve are not artificially limited by forced equality of outcomes. The more severe the meritocracy is, the greater the income disparity is likely to be. A common example of this effect can be found in professional sports where even members of the same team can earn radically different salaries based on their perceived contribution to the team.

It seems that dealing with widening income distribution with punitive tax policies is counterproductive. It reduces growth, which hurts the poor the most, and sets one income class against another income class. An alternate solution is to maximize social mobility in a couple of ways.

First, schools, particularly those for the poor, are largely a failure. The differences between public schools in affluent neighborhoods and poor neighborhoods will tend to broaden income distributions in the following generations. The introduction of vouchers for educational choice will broaden the range of educational options for poor children. It would also likely improve public schools in those very same poor neighborhoods.

Second, the collapse of families is correlated with all sorts of pathologies that curb the prospects of child in such families. As a culture we should encourage the maintenance of stable two-parent families and not pretend that all familial configurations are just as likely to produce successful and happy children. The government can help by easing the economic pressure on young families. One method to do this is to increase the dependent deduction, particularly for young children.

One thing is clear, unless changes are made on the front end of life, there will be little can be done on the back end to reduce the consequences.

Rangeling With the Truth

Monday, November 27th, 2006

For some people deeply convinced of an idea, usually an idea born of youthful experience, no quantity of evidence is sufficient to assuage the affliction of that conviction. For men of middle age and older, the prospect of the military draft was a life-altering experience. Young men from WWII until the Vietnam era were either drafted or had to find ways to avoid the military draft. Those with affluent parents or the academically gifted were many times able to avoid the draft or arrange for less dangerous service. The experience was real as Representative Charles Rangel (D-NY) knows. He served in the Army from 1948-1952 and earned a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star in the Korean War.

However, it has been over three decades since the institution of the all-volunteer army in 1973, and it is difficult for some people to rid themselves of the antiquated notion that only the disadvantaged or foolish would serve in the military. No allowance is made for those who serve out a patriotic feeling, or the thirst for adventure. No recognition is made for others who might benefit from the training offered in the military.

Rep. Rangel in the New York Daily News claimed, “The great majority of people bearing arms for this country in Iraq are from the poorer communities in our inner cities and rural areas.” On Fox News Sunday, Rangel was confronted with detailed evidence from the Heritage Foundation debunking this notion. It turns out that the military is over-represented by the middle class, not the poorest as Rangel claims.

Children from the poorest are much less likely to serve and children of the most affluent are slightly less likely to serve in the military. The household income of those who children choose to join the military is between $45,000 to $50,000, right about at the national median income. The graph below, from the Heritage Foundation report, shows the difference in the distributions between household incomes as a whole and the incomes of households producing military recruits. At the zero line, that income group contributes to the fraction of recruits in proportion to that group’s fraction of the total population. Below the zero line represents income groups contributing less to recruits than their portion of the population. Income groups above the line are over contributing to the population of recruits.

Recruits do not represent the less capable of our society as Rangel seems to claim. On average, military recruits are more likely to have graduated from high school than the rest of the population in their age group.

Chris Wallace of Fox News asked the representative, “…isn’t the volunteer army better educated and more well-to-do than the general population?” Confident of his original assertion, Rangel answered “Of course not.” He did not bother to offer any contrary evidence of his own nor did he attempt contradict the Heritage Foundation in any way. Rangel proffered the intellectual equivalent of “It is true, because I said so.” Rangel volunteered, “If a young fellow has an option of having a decent career or joining the Army to fight in Iraq, you can bet your life that he would not be in Iraq.”

Rangel was really engaging in a little too much projection on the part of himself and many of the like-minded on the Left. What he is really saying is that if he had had a decent career, he would not have joined the Army. He should be more careful about assuming this perspective on the part of others.

We Have Reached a Consensus on Tax Rates

Saturday, November 25th, 2006

Over time, ideas can imperceptibly evolve from unthinkably naïve, to politically plausible, to conventional wisdom. The value of low marginal tax rates is one such idea that has taken root, at least in the United States. During World War II, the highest marginal tax rates were 94 percent. Given the economic demands of that war such confiscatory rates might be acceptable as a short-term expedient. However, marginal federal income rates remained over 90 per cent into the early 1960’s. Then President John Kennedy’s Administration worked to lower the top marginal rate to 77 percent with a resulting decade of high economic growth. The rates lingered in the 70-percent range through the 1960s and 1970s. As inflation cut in, more and more people were pushed into higher brackets and higher tax rates. By the 1970s, the US was suffering under double-digit inflation rates and unemployment rates of over 8 percent.

The Ronald Reagan became president in 1980. During the Reagan years the highest marginal tax rates gradually dropped from 50 per cent to 31 per cent, the result was higher growth rates, lower inflation, and lower unemployment. During the Clinton years in the 1990’s the highest marginal rates increased to 39 per cent, higher than 31 per cent, but still very low by historical or international standards. The Bush tax cuts decreased the top marginal rate to 35 per cent, pretty much the average over the last 20 years. Democrats enjoy railing about the about how drastic the Bush tax cuts are and how they might raise taxes, but no one is talking about returning the rates of the 1970s, much less the confiscatory rates before 1980. The Reagan tax revolution has become about as permanent as anything gets in politics.

Unfortunately, this consensus has not reached a Europe that still languishes with marginal tax rates over 50 per cent. Since 1991, the United States with low rates has grown at the average annual rate of 3.3 percent, while Germany and France with high tax rates have managed only 1.4 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. While these growth rates may not seem very different, compounded over many years they result in dramatic differences. From 1991 to 2004, Germany grew by 19.8 per cent, France by 29.4 per cent and the Unites States, by a whopping 52.5 per cent. If the US had grown as slowly as Germany, it would have to raise the mean current tax rate by over 25 percent to obtain the same of revenue it now achieves at lower rates. The Europeans remain too smart to see the value of low marginal tax rates.

Michigan Voters Ban Discrimination

Sunday, November 19th, 2006

“What I ask for the negro is not benevolence, not pity, not sympathy, but simply justice. The American people have always been anxious to know what they shall do with us… . I have had but one answer from the beginning. Do nothing with us! Your doing with us has already played the mischief with us.” — Frederick Douglass as quoted by Justice Clarence Thomas in his dissent of Grutter v. Bollinger.

The legacy of Supreme Court justices live long after they retire or otherwise leave the Court. In 2003, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor wrote the opinion for and provided the decisive vote in Grutter v. Bollinger. Despite the plain words of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution and subsequent civil rights legislation, the Court ruled that the use of race, as one of many criteria, for use in admissions decisions for the University of Michigan Law School is constitutional. However, given the pernicious nature of such use, they suggested that perhaps it could only be used for 25 years. We hope that that will end the legacy of this particular O’Connor decision.

Make no mistake about it. The decision was purely ad hoc, conjured in support of a policy not legal position of a majority of the Court. Race was not a minor issue in admissions decisions. If race were not in many cases dispositive, neither side of the case would have perused the issue all the way to the Supreme Court.

Now the people have spoken. In between the dark storm clouds that darkened the last the mid-term election, Michigan voters shown a bright ray of sunlight. Rejecting desperate pleas from virtually the entire Michigan political establishment, both Democratic and Republican, the voters displayed uncommon sense and courage and overwhelmingly passed Proposition 2, the Michigan Civil Right Initiative (MCRI), 58 percent to 42 percent. The MCRI banned “public institutions from using affirmative action programs that give preferential treatment to groups or individuals based on their race, gender, color, ethnicity or national origin for public employment, education or contracting purposes.” It is interesting that the proposition had to be worded specifically to ban preferential treatment. Previously courts had twisted the words “equal protection” to allow for preferential treatment, so demanding equal treatment would not have been sufficient.

Now the University of Michigan is again seeking to obtain court permission to continue their racial spoils systems in defiance of the will of a large majority of Michigan voters. The day after the voters of Michigan made their decision, the University of Michigan filed suit. The university is claiming that the proposition is violating their First Amendment rights to express the views on the importance of diversity. Surely the university itself cannot believe what they are arguing. By their argument racist whites could claim that the First Amendment protects mean-spirited racial discrimination.

Moreover, law schools were recently embarrassed in making the same argument before the US Supreme Court. In Rumsfeld v. Forum for Academic and Institutional Rights, a consortium of laws schools challenged the Solomon Amendment. The Solomon Amendment required institutions that receive federal funding to allow military recruiters the same access to students as any other recruiter. Before the Supreme Court, the law schools argued that the Solomon Amendment violated their First Amendment free speech rights to oppose the military’s “don’t ask don’t tell” policy. The Supreme Court unanimously rejected this argument. They would like to the same in this case should it make it up to the Supreme Court, especially a Court without Justice O’Connor.

Milton Friedman – R. I. P.

Saturday, November 18th, 2006

“A society that puts equality — in the sense of equality of outcome —ahead of freedom will end up with neither. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom, and the force, introduced for good purposes, will end up in the hands of people who will use it to promote their own interests. On the other hand, a society that puts freedom first will, as a happy by-product, end up with both greater freedom and greater equality.” – Milton Friedman, Free to Choose.

We often do not recognize the intellectual giants of an era until long after their passing. This fortunately was not the case for economist and the plain-spoken polemicist Milton Friedman who died November 16, 2006 at the age of 94. Friedman received professional recognition by winning the Nobel Prize for economics in 1976 for his work on “consumption analysis” and “monetary history and theory” as well as the Presidential Medal of Freedom for contributing to the idea that “man’s economic rights are as vital as his civil and human rights.” Friedman matched his professional notoriety with the ability to explain his economic and political ideas to lay people. In his seminal TV series “Free to Choose,” broadcast ironically on PBS, Friedman took his case for economic and political freedom to millions of viewers. The series was an outgrowth of a book by the same, co-authored by his wife Rose. Conservative icon William F. Buckley Jr. described the book as an “important, shrewd, omnicompetent readable guide to reasoned thought for those who choose to be free.”

The early decades of the last century marked the rise of collectivist ideology that maintained that societies are run more efficiently if centrally managed. The course of the century made clear that such societies are lees free and generally less economically well off.

Friedman walked in the footsteps of Friedrich Hayek the Austrian economist and political philosopher who wrote The Road to Serfdom. Hayek argued that whether Fascist or Socialist, centrally-controlled societies inexorably led to a loss of freedom and individual autonomy regardless of the how well-intentioned the motives of government are. Friedman continued the making case arguing that free enterprise is a necessary component to any free society. It is the market that insures that no one power, the government, a business, or a union has too much power. Indeed, Friedman argued that free markets protect both workers and consumers more than effectively than governments or unions.

Friedman is perhaps best known as an articulate spokesman for vouchers for public education. Like any monopoly public schools are inefficient and primary serve the interests of the monopoly and not the customer. If parents were given a “voucher” to spend for their children at any school, publicly or privately run, the will of parents rather than education bureaucracies would be sovereign. Those schools that most efficiently met the needs of parents seeking the education of their children would be the ones that prospered. In the book Free to Choose, Friedman demonstrated that the decreased educational output was correlated with the growth of larger and larger educational bureaucracies. Comparing the periods 1968-1969 to 1973-1974, the “number of students” in public schools “went up 1 percent, the total professional staff went up 15 percent, and teachers 14 percent, but supervisors went up 44 percent.”

Opponents of vouchers argued that it would harm the poorest students the most, but Friedman countered that they would be the most empowered. Presently, parents already have some choice in education, only it is means tested. Wealthy parents can send their children to any school they want to. The middle class can do they same at significant economic sacrifice, while the poor have no choice but to accept their local publicly-run school. Armed with vouchers, poor parents would begin to have some of the same choices as wealthier ones. All schools would improve under the pressure of an education market.

Friedman’s wit and ire was most passionately directed at the conceit of some school administrators who object to vouchers or any market approach to education on the grounds that educational professionals are more component to make such decisions than parents. Friedman derisively cited the headmaster of a school in Kent England as suggesting that “I’m not sure that parents know what is best educationally for their children.” This arrogance is a consequence insulated bureaucracies. [See this exchange from “Free to Choose” at YouTube.]

By way of comparison, even though the cost of medical care is a complex mixture of private and public spending, people are still generally free to choose their own doctors and medical treatment. Even though medical treatments are far more complex the educational decisions, everyone would cringe at a system that forced specific doctors and treatments on patients on the grounds that doctors know better than patients what is medically best for them.

Milton Friedman’s happy manner made it impossible for some on the Left to demonize him as uncaring and his academic credentials made it difficult to caricature as a Neanderthal Conservative. The force of his intellect and clarity of his exposition were important factors in ushering in the Reagan Revolution and the Right-ward shift of the country. It is an important measure of his success that it is hard to remember how truly revolutionary and liberating his voice was in the 1970s. Many present Conservatives were suckled on words of Milton Friedman. For those who were intellectually aware of the political debate during that time, his loss is a heavy one mitigated by the fact that his words will live on in his books and television series.

What Are Our Enemies Saying?

Sunday, November 12th, 2006

On January 20, 1981, just after Ronald Reagan delivered his first inaugural address, Iran formally released the 444 hostages it had seized from the American embassy and had been holding for about 14 months. It is hard to fathom the entire reasoning behind the gesture by the Iranians. Perhaps it was the prospect of having $8 billion in frozen assets released or being offered immunity from international civil litigation, or perhaps the propaganda value of the hostages had been fully exploited and no longer worth the diplomatic difficulties it was causing. It is also possible that the election of a new American President, Ronald Reagan, altered the Iranian calculus. Reagan was reputed to be far more willing to employ force to free the hostages. In any case, they were unlikely to get any better deal from the new president the past one. It is at least plausible to suggest that the election of President Reagan sent the Iranians the message that the United States did not want to sit passively by. Perhaps another rescue attempt would be better planned, executed, and include substantially more force.

Nonetheless, it is dangerous to always assume that what your enemy considers an unfavorable development is necessarily a favorable one for you and visa versa. One’s enemies very well could be mistaken in their assessment. However, we should be concerned about the message received (though not intentionally sent) to Islamic extremists by the Democrats gaining control of both houses of Congress in the recent midterm elections. Are the radical Islamists likely to be concerned that there is a new party in power more capable of conducting the War on Terror or are they persuaded that the recent election results confirm their long held belief in the weakness of the West?

At the very least, the conclusion our enemies provide in public should give Democrats and the rest of us as well cause for concern. The leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq has judged that “The American people have put their feet on the right path by … realizing their president’s betrayal in supporting Israel. So they voted for something reasonable in the last elections.” Yet is hard to imagine how much reasoned dialogue can be exchanged with a leader who also states. “We will not rest from our jihad until we are under the olive trees of Rumieh and we have blown up the filthiest house — which is called the White House.”

Some on the Left have argued that Al Qaeda sought a Republican victory because it is in Al Qaeda’s best interest for the US to remain in Iraq. The argument is a concession that the reaction of our enemies to our election results remains a legitimate subject for argument. We can believe that both political parties have the same goal of success in opposing prescriptions for success. However, the argument that Al Qaeda would not benefit from a US withdrawal is inconsistent with recent history the past suggests that American withdrawals from the Mideast have emboldened rather than pacified radical Islamists.

When President Ronald Reagan pulled troops from Lebanon after the bombing of the Marine barracks, when President Bill Clinton pulled troops from Somalia after American serviceman were killed in the “Black Hawk Down” episode, when President Clinton had only a feeble response to the bombing of US embassies and a deadly attack on the USS Cole, Islamic extremist concluded that the US was a paper tiger, so casualty adverse that it would not stand up to any assault. This judgment as to American resolve allowed our enemies to believe they could strike us on September 11 with impunity.

Let us hope that our enemies do not interpret the recent election results as a similar lack of resolve.